基于动态因子Copula模型的行业间系统性风险分析

国际金融市场间的相关关系以及系统性风险受到很多学者的重视，本文则以我国股市的行业指数作为研究对象进行实证研究。通过构建动态因子Copula模型，文章对行业的日收益率数据进行了动态相关性分析，并基于风险预期占比度量了我国行业之间系统性风险的溢出效应。本文分析了2006年1月4日至2016年7月1日的28个行业指数数据，基于GAS动态负荷因子的变化路径来刻画其相关关系，通过风险预期占比来研究行业间的风险溢出效应。研究表明，各个行业指数收益率之间存在较强的关联性。就单个行业来说，化工行业与其他行业关系最为不稳定。就金融与非金融行业而言，金融行业对非金融行业的影响较大且较为平稳。本文所得研究结果可以为投资者和风险管理者在进行决策时提供一定的指导。     

Fixed T dynamic panel data estimators with multifactor errors

This article analyzes a growing group of fixed T dynamic panel data estimators with a multifactor error structure. We use a unified notational approach to describe these estimators and discuss their properties in terms of deviations from an underlying set of basic assumptions. Furthermore, we consider the extendability of these estimators to practical situations that may frequently arise, such as their ability to accommodate unbalanced panels and common observed factors. Using a large-scale simulation exercise, we consider scenarios that remain largely unexplored in the literature, albeit being of great empirical relevance. In particular, we examine (i) the effect of the presence of weakly exogenous covariates, (ii) the effect of changing the magnitude of the correlation between the factor loadings of the dependent variable and those of the covariates, (iii) the impact of the number of moment conditions on bias and size for GMM estimators, and finally (iv) the effect of sample size. We apply each of these estimators to a crime application using a panel data set of local government authorities in New South Wales, Australia; we find that the results bear substantially different policy implications relative to those potentially derived from standard dynamic panel GMM estimators. Thus, our study may serve as a useful guide to practitioners who wish to allow for multiplicative sources of unobserved heterogeneity in their model.     

基于结构方程模型的农民工可雇佣性的决定因素研究——基于中部六省的调查

农民工是中国人力资源的重要组成部分。从智能、技能、体能和心能四个维度构建农民工可雇佣性模型,根据调查问卷收集数据,运用结构方程验证了农民工可雇佣性模型的合理性,研究了农民工可雇佣性及其各维度间的关系。结果表明,各维度对农民工可雇佣性影响程度依次为:技能、心能、智能和体能。农民工因年龄、文化程度不同,在可雇佣能力、技能、心能和智能方面存在显著性差异,但是在体能上没有显著差异。     

Mixtures of Gaussian copula factor analyzers for clustering high dimensional data

Mixtures of factor analyzers is a useful model-based clustering method which can avoid the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional clustering. However, this approach is sensitive to both diverse non-normalities of marginal variables and outliers, which are commonly observed in multivariate experiments. We propose mixtures of Gaussian copula factor analyzers (MGCFA) for clustering high-dimensional clustering. This model has two advantages; (1) it allows different marginal distributions to facilitate fitting flexibility of the mixture model, (2) it can avoid the curse of dimensionality by embedding the factor-analytic structure in the component-correlation matrices of the mixture distribution.An EM algorithm is developed for the fitting of MGCFA. The proposed method is free of the curse of dimensionality and allows any parametric marginal distribution which fits best to the data. It is applied to both synthetic data and a microarray gene expression data for clustering and shows its better performance over several existing methods.     

陕西省人口城市化Logistic模型及其应用——基于结构突变的理论分析

城市化是走向现代化的必经阶段,准确的城市化预测是进行经济、社会建设的基础。在结构突变理论的基础上,用Logistic模型对1978～2010年陕西城市化率进行分析。结论表明：1999年为陕西城市化率的结构突变点,说明城市化率的增长受到外部冲击的影响,分段以后的拟合优度明显提高。分别以阈值0.8和1进行分阶段构建的Logistic拟合精度明显提高,但阈值为1的精度更高,说明陕西城市化还在加速,预测表明到2030年陕西城市化率将达到70%左右。总体而言,从1984年到2030年为陕西省城市化的加速阶段。城市化加速阶段的住房问题、人口膨胀、环境恶化、交通拥挤、社会治安问题必须妥善解决。     

邓小平社会主义核心价值观教育思想探析

以泰州某大跨度连续梁桥的静动载试验为例，建立ANSYS和桥梁博士模型进行静动力有限元数值计算。将试验结果与模型计算值进行比较，试验结果表明,该桥结构刚度和承载能力满足设计要求。     

Structural change in Ethiopia

This article investigates the pace and pattern of structural change in Ethiopia. It departs from the existing literature in two main ways. First, it uses a methodology that enables a more comprehensive assessment of structural change. Second, it entailed the construction of a consistent dataset for Ethiopia—comprising three labour force surveys—tracking 10 economic sectors between 1999 and 2013. Our analysis suggests that the structure of production has changed considerably, but that shifts in the composition of employment have lagged behind. Output per capita growth has been strong and mainly driven by within‐sector productivity improvements. However, the contribution of structural change has increased over time, which is encouraging. Evidence of a growing demographic dividend is also uncovered.     

关于三分Cantor集的结构的一些新结论

旨在采用代数的方法来研究三分Cantor集的结构特点。主要结果除了给出三分Cantor集的代数构造外还定义了仿四进位；结合代数构造、拓扑构造以及仿四进位分别给出并证明了三分Cantor集及其余集的结构公式，从而改进了已有的结论。     

On prediction from the location-scale model with equi correlated response

The location-scale model with equi-correlated responses is discussed. The structure of the location-scale model is utilised to genera-te the prediction distribution of a future response and that of a set of future responses. The method avoids the integration procedures usually involved in derivation of prediction distributions and yields results same as those obtained by the Bayes method with the vague prior distribution* Finally the re-suits have been specialised to cover the case of the normal intra-class model.     

马克思主义视阈下的生产力解读

迄今,国内外对生产力的含义众说纷纭,有"劳动生产率与因素综合说";有"人类的能力说";有"人对自然的作用说";有"关系系统说". 正确地把握马克思主义生产力含义,对于我们坚持"解放生产力,发展生产力"的思想和科学发展观有重大的理论意义和实践意义.重新审视马克思的原著,应该把生产力定义为:劳动者通过具体劳动生产出满足人们需要的使用价值时所表征出来的力量.按照这一观点,决定生产力的因素应该包括实体性因素、附着性因素或渗透性因素和运行性因素.