党员流动趋势与流动党员管理的实证研究——以重庆市为个案

以重庆市为个案,在大量调研的基础上,分析了党员的流动趋势、流动党员管理现状及存在的主要问题,探讨了流动党员开放式管理和动态管理的有效途径和方式.     

Responding to the call: a conceptual model for kinship care assessment

Kinship care has become an important care option worldwide. However, in many jurisdictions, child welfare services use traditional foster care assessment systems. The assessment of the kinship home poses particular challenges. The initial assessment of the kinship home, enabling emergency placements, provides a child‐centred perspective. However, agencies frequently fail to meet the designated time frame for completion of the assessment/approval process. Such failures require the development of different conceptual models for kinship care service delivery, especially for assessments. This paper builds on earlier work on assessment models, drawing on the international literature and the author's involvement and research on kinship care in Ireland. The usability of the proposed model needs to be evaluated across different legislative, policy and practice contexts internationally.     

Nonparametric Comparison for Multivariate Panel Count Data

Multivariate panel count data often occur when there exist several related recurrent events or response variables defined by occurrences of related events. For univariate panel count data, several nonparametric treatment comparison procedures have been developed. However, it does not seem to exist a nonparametric procedure for multivariate cases. Based on differences between estimated mean functions, this article proposes a class of nonparametric test procedures for multivariate panel count data. The asymptotic distribution of the new test statistics is established and a simulation study is conducted. Moreover, the new procedures are applied to a skin cancer problem that motivated this study.     

An Approach to Determine Sample Size and to Allocate Sample Size for a Specific Region in a Multiregional Trial for Survival (Time-to-Event) Data under Accelerated Failure Time Model

For the time-to-event outcome, current methods for sample determination are based on the proportional hazard model. However, if the proportionality assumption fails to capture the relationship between the hazard time and covariates, the proportional hazard model is not suitable to analyze survival data. The accelerated failure time (AFT) model is an alternative method to deal with survival data. In this paper, we address the issue that the relationship between the hazard time and the treatment effect is satisfied with the AFT model to design a multiregional trial. The log-rank test is employed to deal with the heterogeneous effect size among regions. The test statistic for the overall treatment effect is used to determine the total sample size for a multiregional trial, and the proposed criteria are used to rationalize partition sample size to each region.     

IT外包中企业绩效的影响因素实证研究

在已有文献的基础上,识别了关系治理的三个维度：良好冲突处理、相互依赖和关系规范,并从关系治理角度出发,构建了IT外包企业绩效影响因素的概念模型。通过对北京、上海和西安三地20多家外包企业进行问卷调查,利用结构方程模型进行实证分析。实证结果表明：信任、承诺和知识共享对企业绩效有显著的正向影响,其中信任和承诺对企业绩效的影响既有直接的影响又有间接的影响,知识共享对企业绩效有直接的影响;信任、承诺和知识共享具有很强的中介作用,良好冲突处理和相互依赖以信任、承诺和知识共享为中间变量间接影响企业绩效,关系规范以承诺和知识共享为中间变量间接影响企业绩效。     

运用案例教学法培养优秀公关人才

新时期要求高等教育培养出来的学生既要掌握扎实的理论知识,又要有实践操作技能。公共关系案例教学是集理论教学与能力培养于一体的科学有效的教学方法,在理论学习的基础上,通过对案例的讨论、分析,激发学生对“公共关系”这门课的学习兴趣,从而提高学生发现问题、分析问题的能力,沟通、协调能力和创新、决策能力。为将来从事营销公关工作做好充分准备。     

影响本科双语课程教学因素的实证分析

影响双语教学的因素有8个:教师的综合素质;双语模式与学生的外语水平;双语课程学习的个人特点;学员的身心负荷;教师的教学质量;教学内容的质量;预习与复习以及教材的难易程度。同时,就学员自身的感受而言,双语模式与学生的外语水平、双语课程教学内容的质量以及学员的身心负荷与学员的学习效果之间呈显著性相关。此研究为改善和提高双语教学质量提供了实证依据和对策建议。     

提高高校干部理论学习的效果

如何提高高校干部理论学习的效果,是高校干部教育工作的难点和急需改进的薄弱环节,要解决这一难题,首先要使高校干部从加强高校党的建设、自身所担负的重大工作任务和自身素质的提高等方面充分认识搞好理论学习的重要性和紧迫性;其次是规定理论学习的内容,抓住理论学习的重点,不同层次的干部进行分层学习,选择学以致用和“四个结合”的正确理论学习方法和途径;最后要建立各级中心组学习制度、干部脱产培训制度、干部自学制度、干部学习考核使用制度等有效措施,保证理论学习的针对性和实效性。     

Work-family conflict in comparative perspective: The role of social policies

This study focuses on the role of social policies in mitigating work-family incompatibilities in 27 countries. We ask whether work-family conflict is reduced in countries that provide family-friendly policies and flexible employment arrangements, and whether women and men are similarly affected by such policies. The study, based on the ISSP 2002, demonstrates considerable variation among countries in the perceived work-family conflict. In all but two countries, women report higher levels of conflict than men. At the individual level, working hours, the presence of children and work characteristics affect the perception of conflict. At the macro level, childcare availability and to a certain extent maternity leave reduce women's and men's sense of conflict. Additionally, the availability of childcare facilities alleviates the adverse effect of children on work-family balance for mothers while flexible job arrangements intensify this effect.     

Small area estimation of the mean using non-parametric M-quantile regression: a comparison when a linear mixed model does not hold

The demand for reliable statistics in subpopulations, when only reduced sample sizes are available, has promoted the development of small area estimation methods. In particular, an approach that is now widely used is based on the seminal work by Battese et al. [An error-components model for prediction of county crop areas using survey and satellite data, J. Am. Statist. Assoc. 83 (1988), pp. 28–36] that uses linear mixed models (MM). We investigate alternatives when a linear MM does not hold because, on one side, linearity may not be assumed and/or, on the other, normality of the random effects may not be assumed. In particular, Opsomer et al. [Nonparametric small area estimation using penalized spline regression, J. R. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 70 (2008), pp. 265–283] propose an estimator that extends the linear MM approach to the case in which a linear relationship may not be assumed using penalized splines regression. From a very different perspective, Chambers and Tzavidis [M-quantile models for small area estimation, Biometrika 93 (2006), pp. 255–268] have recently proposed an approach for small-area estimation that is based on M-quantile (MQ) regression. This allows for models robust to outliers and to distributional assumptions on the errors and the area effects. However, when the functional form of the relationship between the qth MQ and the covariates is not linear, it can lead to biased estimates of the small area parameters. Pratesi et al. [Semiparametric M-quantile regression for estimating the proportion of acidic lakes in 8-digit HUCs of the Northeastern US, Environmetrics 19(7) (2008), pp. 687–701] apply an extended version of this approach for the estimation of the small area distribution function using a non-parametric specification of the conditional MQ of the response variable given the covariates [M. Pratesi, M.G. Ranalli, and N. Salvati, Nonparametric m-quantile regression using penalized splines, J. Nonparametric Stat. 21 (2009), pp. 287–304]. We will derive the small area estimator of the mean under this model, together with its mean-squared error estimator and compare its performance to the other estimators via simulations on both real and simulated data.