Challenges to the Acceptance of Probabilistic Risk Analysis

This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and application of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include: (a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of robust or reference prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human performance in PRA, including not only human error per se but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presenting interesting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.     

Effect of family structure on life satisfaction: australian evidence

How do family arrangements affect subjective well-being? We investigate this issue using data pooled from the IsssA and HILDA, both large, representative national samples of Australia (pooled n=38 447). Our regression analysis of cross-sectional and panel data examines how large are the differences in life satisfaction according to marital status and cohabitation. We find that women and men in formal marriages experience higher levels of life satisfaction than do people in other family arrangements. Moreover, both multiple tests in the cross-section, and tests controlling for prior happiness in the panel analysis, suggest that this is a causal relationship. Aggregating up the levels of life satisfaction generated by different marriage and cohabitation arrangements across a lifetime, suggests that a life-long marriage is the most satisfying. Early divorce followed by an enduring second marriage is little worse (because little time is spent outside the married state). But divorce without remarriage, or long lasting cohabitation without formal marriage, reduce the lifetime sum of subjective well-being by 4–12% for both women and men.     

Subjective Distributions

A decision maker has to choose one of several random variables whose distributions are not known. As a Bayesian, she behaves as if she knew the distributions. In this paper we suggest an axiomatic derivation of these (subjective) distributions, which is more economical than the derivations by de Finetti or Savage. Whereas the latter derive the whole joint distribution of all the available random variables, our approach derives only the marginal distributions. Correspondingly, the preference questionnaire needed in our case is less smaller.     

理想和现实的冲突——解读毛姆《月亮和六便士》的主题

毛姆的长篇小说《月亮和六便士》揭示了人性自由的追求与社会现实之间的矛盾.主人公无法割舍身边的"六便士",又执着追求虚幻的"月亮",凸现了现实与理想的矛盾冲突,显示毛姆对人性的矛盾以及人生内涵的复杂性的深刻探索.     

郁达夫前期小说个性化特征及其成因

郁达夫前期小说是以浪漫的、"自叙传"式的主观抒情形式为主要文体特征,这种叙述方式,让作家的思想感情同作品中主人公的思想感情融成了一体。作者以忧郁哀婉的笔调、典型的抒情方式以及鲜明的现代色彩,使自己获得了一种独特的与世界对话的艺术形式。郁达夫前期小说的个性化特征,是特定时代客观环境及作家在创作中主动探索的产物。     

教育创新:主体性教育与教育信息化的协同建构

"创新"是教育实践生命的源头.教育信息化为教育创新提供了前所未有的契机和条件;而主体性教育则为创新教育指示了方向,为教育信息化提出了内在的需求和动力.主体性教育与教育信息化交汇在此世纪之交有着教育发展规律的内在必然性,二者的协同建构将在人类教育创新史上产生一次巨大的质的飞跃.     

对正当防卫主观条件的反思--从一则案例谈起

保护"非法利益"的防卫行为能否构成正当防卫,这一问题不仅在犯罪客体复杂性的视角上有厘清之必要,而且即使就单纯的保护"非法利益"的防卫行为而言,也可以构成正当防卫.通过对正当防卫的法条、相关理论、实质、立法价值取向以及正当性标准的剖析,对正当防卫主观条件的传统理论进行了反思,提出了挑战.     

周珏良“译述”法及其译作《〈李尔王〉分析》

著名翻译家周珏良教授提出用“译述”法翻译文艺批评的理论性文章 ,本文试通过“译述”法在《〈李尔王〉分析》中的成功运用分析译述者的主体性特征——目的性、受动性以及能动性在翻译实践中的具体体现     

苗文化传承与沈从文小说叙事的主体话语权利

在苗族作家沈从文的小说叙事中 ,作者对话语权利的争取是其最明确的特征。其叙事视角的选择与转换调整 ,都是为了确定自己在小说叙事中存在的地位 ,确定自己在叙事中的话语权利。这一切与苗族文化口传心授的传承机制有着相同的文化心理动因和外在表现形态。沈从文对苗文化的认同 ,对苗族人文价值观念的认同 ,导致了他小说创作中相同于苗文化传承的叙事的产生     

芥川龙之介与川端康成的文学个性及死亡观

芥川龙之介作为日本近代著名的现实主义作家,以剖析近代人性的利己主义、冷静地关注并描写资本主义制度的"丑恶"见长;川端康成则是新感觉派的代表,以回避现实、执著追求日本的"传统美"著称。"人性恶、现实丑"的揭露与"传统美"的追求,展示了二人迥然不同的文学个性。然而,在能体现人生及艺术追求的死亡观念上二人又有着惊人的相似之处,尤其是他们最终都用自杀的方式结束了生命,从中可见日本传统的文学之魂及日本传统的美学思想对他们有着不可低估的影响。