Probability and statisitics in the service of computer science: illustrations using the assignment problem

Recent work on the assignment problem is surveyed with the aim of illustrating the contribution that stochastic thinking can make to problems of interest to computer scientists. The assignment problem is thus examined in connection with the analysis of greedy algorithms, marriage lemmas, linear programming with random costs, randomization based matching, stochastic programming, and statistical mechanics. (The survey is based on the invited presentation given during the “Statistics Days at FSU” in March 1990.)     

Some basic concepts of numerical treatment of Markov decision models

This survey reviews some results on numerical treatment of MARKOV Decision Models with respect to iV-stage-optimality, discounted optimality, and average optimality criteria. Especially, we deal with accelerated algorithms, approximation procedures and structured problems.

AMS 1980 subject classifications: 93C55, 90C40, 93D35     

试论辅助生产费用的分配方法-计划成本法

在采用计划成本法分配辅助生产费用的基础上,计算计划成本差异率,用计划成本差异率把实际成本与计划成本的差异额分配到各受益对象,克服将辅助生产费用的实际成本与计划成本之间的计划成本差异额全部计入管理费用的做法。使之符合收入和费用相配比的原则,提高企业成本计算的准确程度。     

More Large Accidents Through Complexity

Many would tend to characterize modern society as steeped in complexity. This complexity is seen by a number of professional people to imply risk-taking--or risk-making--on a high level. "A single mistake may give consequences of quite different proportions from earlier times," as one critic puts it. This hypothesis of increasing risks on a high level--of worst things getting worse--has been tested on fires in Sweden. Fire has always been a powerfully upsetting agent to the social fabric. Today industrial fires dominate the picture economically. The cost of industrial fires is about three times the cost of residential fires in Sweden. It is of interest to note that the damage cost of the worst fires (as measured in insurance payments) does not form an increasing part of overall fire damage costs, as one would expect from the above hypothesis. Whether the hypothesis holds with regard to indirect costs due to production stand-still is more uncertain. We can conclude that the potential of complexity to create large abnormal occurrences may have been somewhat prematurely announced--at least with regard to fires in Sweden.     

Expanding the repertoire of evaluation tools so that evaluation recommendations can assist nonprofits to enhance strategic planning and design of program operations

Data are the lifeblood of decision-making and provide a critical component into the complex mosaic from which decisions emerge. Evaluators and decision-makers should, therefore, continuously seek to explore the use of tools that can produce more meaningful, insightful, and useful data so that decision-making can be enhanced and improved. Traditional economic appraisal methods offer much and are very useful and relevant. Standard financial accounting reporting for tax purposes also provide insightful information on the organization’s financial health and that of its individual programs. However, neither offer insight into cost behavior—an important consideration for making program operations more efficient and for long-term strategic planning, forecasting, and design of program operations. Before COVID-19, programs were already challenged with competition for donor dollars and the pursuit for financial sustainability. The COVID-19 environment has considerably exacerbated these challenges. In this current environment, it is more important than ever for nonprofits to optimize limited financial resources to do more societal good. This paper will illustrate how selected concepts from cost and management accounting can be used by both independent program evaluators to improve their recommendations, as well as program administrators in-charge of nonprofits to enhance decision-making.     

Costs and Financing of Maritime Education and Training in Europe: Analysis and Policy Implications

The paper reports some findings of an extensive European research project carried out on costs and funds of MET (maritime education and training) systems. The need to improve the quality of the European MET systems is a relevant political and scientific issue which strongly impacts the competitiveness of the shipping sector in Europe. However, MET is quite an expensive ET system since it requires high investments and incurs in high running costs. The situation is also acerbated by the decreasing number of students at MET institutions. There is then the need of having a closer look at the financial aspects of MET so as to come up with some policy recommendations for improving the current situation in terms of optimal use of resources. In the paper a questionnaire-based methodology is employed aiming at identifying and analyzing different cost and funds structures of MET institutions in Europe (cost models). Then, by considering some policy-sensitive variables of the cost models, some policy recommendations are drawn up to improve the efficiency of current systems. They basically refer to the need to concentrate and integrate resources in order to exploit some degree of economies of scale, on top of achieving some economies of scope and pursuing quality in MET. Finally, further lines of research are indicated.     

基于交易人员的广东省交易费用测算：1993-2002

利用Wallis和Noah关于经济体交易活动和转换活动的划分，将所有的从业人员分成交易人员和转换人员，将职工工资作为交易费用和转换费用，测算了广东省1993—2002年的交易费用水平。结论表明：交易费用随着经济增长而增长，经济越发达，交易费用比重越大，交易费用的增长并不妨碍经济增长；随着经济的增长，转换人员的比重不断下降，单位转换人员的效率不断提高；不同行业交易费用的平均增长速度差异较大，交易服务部门特别是信息交易服务中介行业发展迅速，而传统的工农业等行业交易人员和交易费用增长缓慢。     

国有企业的产权、改革宏观效应与退出成本研究——一个基于历史与宪法视角的国企存在合理性的逻辑证明

国有企业改革是一个历史过程,因此国有企业改革要遵循历史与逻辑相统一的"历史逻辑".国有企业的产权改革必须置于历史形成的既有的"宪法"的规范下才能寻找到"产权改革"的真正的"历史逻辑起点".从这个意义上说,单纯的寻利性的产权改革会面临合法性危机从而导致整个改革的合法性危机.国企改革的合法性意味着改革的始点必须公平,一旦满足了这个条件,产权交易的寻利过程会内生出各种所有制企业,则转轨后的经济就是"混合经济".     

Daily Variation in Natural Disaster Casualties: Information Flows,Safety, and Opportunity Costs in Tornado Versus Hurricane Strikes

Casualties from natural disasters may depend on the day of the week they strike. With data from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS), daily variation in hurricane and tornado casualties from 5,043 tornado and 2,455 hurricane time/place events is analyzed. Hurricane forecasts provide at‐risk populations with considerable lead time. Such lead time allows strategic behavior in choosing protective measures under hurricane threat; opportunity costs in terms of lost income are higher during weekdays than during weekends. On the other hand, the lead time provided by tornadoes is near zero; hence tornados generate no opportunity costs. Tornado casualties are related to risk information flows, which are higher during workdays than during leisure periods, and are related to sheltering‐in‐place opportunities, which are better in permanent buildings like businesses and schools. Consistent with theoretical expectations, random effects negative binomial regression results indicate that tornado events occurring on the workdays of Monday through Thursday are significantly less lethal than tornados that occur on weekends. In direct contrast, and also consistent with theory, the expected count of hurricane casualties increases significantly with weekday occurrences. The policy implications of observed daily variation in tornado and hurricane events are considered.