协同运输管理运行机制研究

协同运输管理是在CPFR基础上发展起来的一种供应链管理方法。它通过降低供应链中的运输成本、缩短商品交付时间和提高准时交货率,实现供应链价值的最大化。协同运输管理的有效实施,需要建立完善的运行机制,包括动力机制、约束机制、实际行为和惩罚机制,并配备相应的软硬件条件。     

BAYESIAN SUBSET SELECTION AND MODEL AVERAGING USING A CENTRED AND DISPERSED PRIOR FOR THE ERROR VARIANCE

This article proposes a new data‐based prior distribution for the error variance in a Gaussian linear regression model, when the model is used for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. For a given subset of variables in the model, this prior has a mode that is an unbiased estimator of the error variance but is suitably dispersed to make it uninformative relative to the marginal likelihood. The advantage of this empirical Bayes prior for the error variance is that it is centred and dispersed sensibly and avoids the arbitrary specification of hyperparameters. The performance of the new prior is compared to that of a prior proposed previously in the literature using several simulated examples and two loss functions. For each example our paper also reports results for the model that orthogonalizes the predictor variables before performing subset selection. A real example is also investigated. The empirical results suggest that for both the simulated and real data, the performance of the estimators based on the prior proposed in our article compares favourably with that of a prior used previously in the literature.     

史料引用致误原因分析

史料是史学研究的基础.但自古以来,由于种种原因,错误的或者事实模糊不清的史料很多,如果不作必要的考证鉴别,很难获得科学的研究成果.造成史料引用致误的原因是多方面的,归结起来主要有:(1)史料本身无误,由于没有正确理解原意或者标点不正确而致误;(2)史料本身无误,由于引用者推断不确而致误;(3)史料内容比较含蓄,由于引用者缺乏深入辨析而致误;(4)没有直接引用原书而致误;(5)因版本不善而造成史料的错误或脱漏;(6)史料本身就有错误.     

Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Summary.  A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities.     

浅谈创新能力与文献检索利用技能

本文论述了创新能力与文献检索技能的关系。文献检索技能是现代人所必须具备的能力 ,是铸造创新能力的重要因素。并提出了文检课存的问题以及在新世纪加强文检课的一些建议。     

Firm-level training in local economic systems: Complementarities in production and firm innovation strategies

The paper presents a conceptual review over the main aspects concerning the role of human capital investments and training activities within production processes, followed by empirical evidence on two local economic systems in Northern Italy, based on recent survey data. Theoretical and empirical considerations are brought together in order to provide new insights on the role of training and the factors associated to training activities at firm level.The potential driving factors of training here analysed compounds structural characteristics, labour demand dynamics, human resource management practices, workforce features, and firm performances. We observe that training activities emerge positively associated with high-performance practices, innovative labour demand features, workforce skill level, firm size, and are affected by labour flexibility in various directions. Empirical evidence confirms most previous results but also adds further important insights. The analysis suggests that a widening gap, between few innovatively evolving and many stagnant firms, could characterise the future dynamics of the Region. The high relevance of structural variables, labour demand factors and HRM/innovation practices shows that regional industrial policies and labour policies should be jointly implemented for increasing potential firm productivity. This is a key concern for the current debate on local systems economic development in the European and Italian environment.     

论新文学思潮与新文学流派的动态关系

新文学思潮与新文学流派之间因果莫辨、源流纠缠的动态关系 ,充分证明了近百年来新文学思潮与新文学流派本身非线性、非对称的生存状态。所谓非线性与非对称 ,其实质就是不稳定性和不成熟性 ,它们直接制约着新文学近百年发展进程 ,使之在历时态和共时态上始终呈现出某种程度的不良生存状态和发展趋势。     

基于知识链的管理

论述了知识链的有关概念和特点,通过分析以往的知识链模型,提出了改进的知识链模型;对知识链管理的机制进行了分析;从控制论的角度,对知识链内部知识成长的机制进行了分析,并指出知识链内部知识转移的影响因素,为知识管理的发展提供了一定的理论依据。     

汉代边郡军粮廪给问题探讨

粮食供给是军队后勤给养中的一项重要内容。汉代边塞地区军粮主要供给吏卒及其家属,也用于借贷和马、牛、驼、狗之食。从量制、时制、身份差别、劳动强度和年龄、性别等方面,分析了军队吏卒和吏卒家属口粮分等廪给的具体情况及其影响要素,从而揭示出汉代军粮供给体制的内在规律。正是由于汉代军粮廪给有章可循,才最大限度地提高了后勤的供应能力和军队的战斗力,保证了军队平时守土卫边和战时有效打击来犯之敌。     

Fuzzy K-means clustering models for triangular fuzzy time trajectories

We focus our attention on the classification of fuzzy time trajectories with triangular membership function, described by a given set of individuals. To this purpose, we adopt a fullyinformational approach, explicitly recognizing the informational nature shared by the ingredients of the classification procedure: the observed data (Empirical Information) and the classification model (Theoretical Information). In particular, by supposing that the informational paradigm has a fuzzy nature, we suggest three fuzzy clustering models allowing the classification of the triangular fuzzy time trajectories, based on the analysis of the cross sectional and/or longitudinal characteristics of their components (centers and spreads). Two applicative examples are illustrated.