Detecting structural breaks in multivariate financial time series: evidence from hedge fund investment strategies

This paper extends the class of asset-based style factor models with multiple structural breaks to the multivariate setting. We propose a model that allows for the presence of common breaks in a system of factor models for individual hedge fund investment strategies, which share common investment characteristics. We develop a Bayesian approach to inference for the unknown number and positions of the structural breaks, based on a set of filtering recursions similar to those of the forward–backward algorithm. Furthermore, we identify relevant risk factors, common among the series of hedge funds, using a Bayesian model comparison approach. We apply our method to a set of correlated hedge fund strategies, which are mainly characterized by equity related bets. Multiple common breaks are identified, consistent with well-known market events, which reveal evidence for structural changes in the risk exposures as well as in the correlation structure of the analysed series.     

从邓小平政治体制改革之路反思新时期党政关系模式的重构

邓小平政治体制改革之路一波三折,从20世纪80年代党政分开的提出到九十年代步履维艰的改革历程表明,其核心就是要解决权力过分集中的制度弊端。新时期党政关系规范化模式的构建是在原有政治结构并未发生根本性变化的前提之下的一种自我调适。     

增值税减税能否提高制造业企业全要素生产率？——基于增值税税率下调事件的经验研究

深化税制改革是激发市场主体活力、加快制造业转型、实现经济高质量发展的重要路径。基于2016—2020年中国沪深A股上市公司数据,研究了2018年和2019年增值税税率下调对制造业企业全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,增值税减税提高了制造业企业的全要素生产率。异质性分析结果显示,对于市场竞争地位高、国有产权、处于成熟期以及高市场化地区的企业而言,增值税减税对全要素生产率的提升效应显著。渠道分析表明,研发投入、人力资本投入以及资本配置效率是增值税减税影响企业全要素生产率的主要渠道。因此,政府部门应继续深化增值税改革,缩小制造业与其他行业的税率差异,切实减轻制造业企业税收负担,同时应加大对民营、初创等弱势企业的财政扶持力度,全面提高各类企业的全要素生产率。     

Hungarian verbal puzzles and the intensity of language contact

Grammaticality judgments of bilingual Hungarians in Slovakia and Ukraine vs. Yugoslavia show that overt objects are much more acceptable in the northern Slavic countries than in Yugoslavia. Two conflicting hypotheses have been advanced to explain this difference. The structural hypothesis claims that Serbian cliticization is responsible, while the socio-historical hypothesis claims that the difference in grammaticality judgments is due to a difference in the duration of Hungarian–Slavic language contact north of and south of present-day Hungary. Data from a seven-country survey (N = 846) show that there is a split between judgments in the northern vs. southern Slavic countries across a wide range of linguistic variables, which discredits the structural explanation for the object pro-drop variable, at least as the sole cause of change. Moreover, statistical analyses of 24 variables provide substantial empirical verification of Thomason and Kaufman's 'two crucial parameters of intensity of contact in a borrowing situation': time and level of bilingualism. It is shown that the 250 years of contact between Hungarian and Serbian has resulted in much smaller contact effects than the thousand-year-old contact of Hungarian with the northern Slavic languages. Bilingual Hungarians who constitute a local minority in the settlements where they live systematically favor the contact-induced variants of variables vis-a`-vis those who constitute a local majority.     

乡镇财政管理体制改革的民主内涵——深圳市宝安区沙井镇的案例分析

我国部分地区乡镇政府从90年代开始实行以“收支两条线”和会计委派制为核心内容的财政管理体制改革。这一改革具有基层民主建设的内涵，深圳市沙井镇的改革是一个典型。     

对我国电信体制改革与中国电信分切的一些看法

介绍了中国电信行业发展和改革的进程 ,对于电信行业破除垄断、引入竞争以及改革开放的一些做法发表了意见和建议。     

新时期改造我国民事审判权的若干思考

从民事审判权应有的规定性看，我国的民事审判权处于缺失的状态，存在职权化过重、主管范围狭窄、运行不够顺畅、公开性不足等弊端。本文提出民事审判权改革的四个基本思路由以法院为本位过渡到以当事人为本位；由个案处理功能到兼顾社会公共政策制定功能；由单一注重判决手段到注重多重手段并用；由封闭的审判权发展到开放的审判权。     

高校招生考试改革环境分析——浅析《教育部关于普通高中新课程省份深化高校招生考试改革的指导意见》

本文运用系统分析的环境分析方法,对教育部文件《教育部关于普通高中新课程省份深化高校招生考试改革的指导意见》从考试改革的物理技术环境、社会经济环境、文化心理环境三个方面进行分析,提出应关注贫困地区教育发展,建立统一详尽的考试改革模式,维护考生及家长对考试的知情权的结论。     

国有企业改制中国有资产流失的原因分析及法律对策

国企改制中的国有资产流失可分为两个阶段 ,一是在改制过程中由于低估、折股造成的损失 ,二是在改制后国有股运营中造成的利益损失。流失的主要原因是没有健全国有资产监管体制 ,资产评估不依法规范进行以及国有股不能上市流通。遏制国有资产流失主要在于尽快完善国有资产运管体制 ,严格规范资产评估行为 ,尽快实现国有股上市流通     

农科院校大学计算机基础课程教学内容的调查分析

计算机的普及和发展对高校大学计算机基础教学提出了更高的要求。为了促进计算机技术与专业的融合,使计算机技术更好地为专业服务,了解各专业对计算机知识的需求情况,推进农科院校的大学计算机基础教学改革,就农科院校师生计算机知识的掌握和需求情况进行了问卷调查,为农科院校大学计算机基础教学体系和教学内容的改革提供了依据。