人口普查覆盖误差估计方法综述

人口普查工作的质量主要体现在覆盖误差的规模上.人口统计学家创建了估计人口普查覆盖误差的方法.有些方法利用独立于人口普查本身的信息,另外一些方法则利用人口行政记录的信息.由于每种方法都有其特定的形成背景和适用范围,因而没有适合于所有国家和地区的通用方法.通过对美国、新西兰、澳大利亚、英国和中国的人口普查覆盖误差估计方法进行了较为详细的介绍,说明了这些方法的使用情况.研究表明,任何一种估计方法都有其局限性,需要不断改进与完善.     

Extending dual multiple factor analysis to categorical tables

This paper describes a proposal for the extension of the dual multiple factor analysis (DMFA) method developed by Lê and Pagès 15 to the analysis of categorical tables in which the same set of variables is measured on different sets of individuals. The extension of DMFA is based on the transformation of categorical variables into properly weighted indicator variables, in a way analogous to that used in the multiple factor analysis of categorical variables. The DMFA of categorical variables enables visual comparison of the association structures between categories over the sample as a whole and in the various subsamples (sets of individuals). For each category, DMFA allows us to obtain its global (considering all the individuals) and partial (considering each set of individuals) coordinates in a factor space. This visual analysis allows us to compare the set of individuals to identify their similarities and differences. The suitability of the technique is illustrated through two applications: one using simulated data for two groups of individuals with very different association structures and the other using real data from a voting intention survey in which some respondents were interviewed by telephone and others face to face. The results indicate that the two data collection methods, while similar, are not entirely equivalent.     

为什么历史上经营式农业不发展：以无锡为案例

本文基于第一、二次对"无锡、保定农村调查"的资料,分析说明了无锡农村经营式农业的日渐式微,并从出租农地与雇工经营的收益方程、较高工商业发展水平导致的机会成本增加,以及家庭小农场的竞争三个方面分析了经营式农业不发展的原因.我们认为,主要是当地较高但又不足够高的工商业发展水平导致了经营式农业难以发展.较高的工商业发展水平意味着发展经营式农业的高运营成本和高机会成本.不足够高又使得非农产业的需求与人数众多的农业过剩劳动力不相匹配,从而造成了家庭小农场和经营式农场之间的激烈对抗.我们也认为,中国未来的农业农村现代化道路可能会依然呈现出复杂性和特殊性,家庭小农场扮演的角色可能仍然不容忽视.     

National Culture on the Cross-National Variation of Homicide: An Empirical Application of the Inglehart–Welzel Cultural Map

Although there has been a growing literature on the effects of culture on the cross-national variation of homicide, this literature remains limited in the operationalization of national culture as well as in the modeling of the cultural effects. Adopting a multidimensional measure of national culture developed in the World Values Survey, this study examines the effects of various aspects of national culture, as well as their interaction, on the cross-national variation of homicide. The findings of this study provide evidence for the effect of national culture on homicide variation across countries while painting a more complex picture about the potential mechanisms of these effects.     

Investigating the impact of violations of the “left and top means first” heuristic on response behavior and data quality

ABSTRACT

Web surveys are an established data collection mode that use written language to provide information. The written language is accompanied by visual elements, such as presentation formats and shapes. However, research has shown that visual elements influence response behavior because respondents sometimes use interpretive heuristics to make sense of the visual elements. One such heuristic is the ‘left and top means first’ (LTMF) heuristic, which suggests that respondents tend to believe that a response scale consistently runs from left to right or from top to bottom. We conducted a web survey experiment to investigate how violations of the LTMF heuristic affect response behavior and data quality. For this purpose, a random half of respondents received response options that followed a consistent order and the other half received response options that followed an inconsistent order. The results reveal significantly different response distributions between the two groups. We also found that inconsistently ordered response options significantly increase response times and decrease data quality in terms of criterion validity. We, therefore, recommend using options that follow the design strategies of the LTMF heuristic.     

Young adult poverty in historical perspective: The role of policy supports and early labor market experiences

Recent research using an improved measure of poverty finds that poverty has fallen by nearly forty percent since the 1960s in the United States. But past research has not examined whether this finding holds across detailed demographic groups who might be more or less vulnerable to poverty. This paper helps fill that gap, focusing on one such vulnerable subgroup: young adults. Using the Current Population Survey, this paper examines long-term trends in young adult poverty in comparison to other groups. In contrast to almost all other groups, young adults have seen no decrease in poverty since the 1960s. We explore potential reasons for this fact, finding that young adults lack access to benefits from government programs, and are increasingly unmarried, living alone, and disconnected from the labor market, factors that leave young adults more vulnerable than other groups to poverty. The findings have implications for how antipoverty policies might assist this vulnerable group.     

我国网络问卷调查发展现状与问题

随着信息传播技术的飞速发展,网络问卷调查业已成为相对主流的调查研究方法之一,被众多行业调研机构者和学术研究人员所采用。在简要介绍了网络问卷调查的发展历史及在我国的发展现状之后,通过参与式观察,我们剖析了国内网络问卷调查中存在的两大问题,即数据质量和个人信息安全,以期引起社会的关注和反思,针对这些问题,最后试图提出可行性解决方案,以期推动网络问卷调查行业的良性发展。     

中国现代文学期刊研究的综合考察

中国现代文学期刊是现代中国社会与文学变革的催生剂,也是作家作品生产的重要载体。总结中国现代文学期刊的研究经验,特别是总结近三十年来的研究经验,将会促进中国现代文学研究学术质量的整体性提升。而进一步提高期刊研究的理论自觉,拓展研究的广度与深度,则是中国现代文学期刊研究所面临的迫切任务。     

我国农村妇女土地权利的制度考察

从制度安排上分析当前我国农村妇女土地权利状况。研究方法：定性分析法、产权分析法。研究结果：在对影响农村妇女土地权利的土地制度、民间法规等相关制度安排考察和解构的基础上,探讨了我国农村妇女土地权利的现状和特征。研究结论：需要增强法律的性别敏感性;清晰界定集体经济组织成员资格;开展夫妻共有产权登记;协调法律和民间法之间的不一致;建立和健全农村妇女土地权利司法救济制度;加强对村民自治的权力监督。从而消除制度上的漏洞和潜在的制度供给不平等,为维护农村妇女土地权利提供一个公平、有效的制度环境。     

鸡泽县积极探索村企党建一体化的调查

鸡泽县积极探索企业党组织和农村党组织服务新农村建设的新途径,通过实施"村企党建工作一体化"运行机制,统筹了企业、农村党建资源,建立起以党建工作为纽带的村企互帮互助机制,有效地整合了城乡人才、物质和信息等资源,拓宽了基层党建的视野和空间,解决了当前农村基层党组织建设面临的人选难、发展难、经费保障难、场所改善难等问题.为在实践中如何有效统筹城乡党建提供了有益的尝试