我国商业银行操作风险管理能力影响因素及管理状况分析

基于复杂系统理论和企业能力理论、风险管理理论,研究中提出了商业银行操作风险管理能力概念及其内涵构成,从安全管理理论中的人因失误和组织错误角度分析和研究了影响商业银行操作风险管理能力的各项重要因素。在商业银行操作风险管理状况调查问卷中,对操作风险管理水平及管理能力产生影响的各项因素进行了相应题项设计,并向各类商业银行从业人员发放银行问卷,获取了我国商业银行当前操作风险管理的具体状况。通过研究得出,银行员工层次是商业银行在操作风险管理中所必须要重点关注的影响因素。研究对于我国商业银行全面深入了解操作风险管理实际状况,提升自身操作风险管理水平及能力,有效防范和控制操作风险,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。     

政府应急管理能力成熟度评估研究

随着近年来在应急管理建设上的持续投入,我国各级政府和部门在处置各类突发灾害的基础设施和物资装备等方面的硬件条件得到了大幅度提升,应急能力建设的重点正面临着向提高应急过程的动态组织协调、加强事前预防和防范、提升科学化规范化管理程度、改进应急处置管理绩效的方向转变.论文结合这一现实需求,将能力成熟度模型应用于政府的应急管理能力评估工作中,提出了政府应急管理能力成熟度概念,构建了应急管理能力成熟度评估框架,提炼和筛选了综合体现不同成熟度层级的政府应急管理能力关键过程(域),建立了以关键过程目标实现程度为基准的评估指标体系和测评方法,设计了相适应的评估程序,并结合陕西省政府应急管理能力评估进行了实证研究,通过评价实验,不仅可以获得具有可比性的应急管理能力成熟度等级,而且从中可以发现薄弱环节,并为今后的持续改进指明方向,从而为建立持续改进应急管理动态组织过程的质量效果提供支持.     

Empirical likelihood inference for the bivariate survival function under univariate censoring

In this article, we apply the empirical likelihood method to make inference on the bivariate survival function of paired failure times by estimating the survival function of censored time with the Kaplan–Meier estimator. Adjusted empirical likelihood (AEL) confidence intervals for the bivariate survival function are developed. We conduct a simulation study to compare the proposed AEL method with other methods. The simulation study shows the proposed AEL method has better performance than other existing methods. We illustrate the proposed method by analyzing the skin graft data.     

Can a workbook work? Examining whether a practitioner evaluation toolkit can promote instrumental use

In large-scale, multi-site contexts, developing and disseminating practitioner-oriented evaluation toolkits are an increasingly common strategy for building evaluation capacity. Toolkits explain the evaluation process, present evaluation design choices, and offer step-by-step guidance to practitioners. To date, there has been limited research on whether such resources truly foster the successful design, implementation, and use of evaluation findings. In this paper, we describe a multi-site project in which we developed a practitioner evaluation toolkit and then studied the extent to which the toolkit and accompanying technical assistance was effective in promoting successful completion of local-level evaluations and fostering instrumental use of the findings (i.e., whether programs directly used their findings to improve practice, see Patton, 2008). Forensic nurse practitioners from six geographically dispersed service programs completed methodologically rigorous evaluations; furthermore, all six programs used the findings to create programmatic and community-level changes to improve local practice. Implications for evaluation capacity building are discussed.     

On the estimation of parameters,survival functions,and hazard rates based on fuzzy life time data

Life time data analysis is regarded as one of the significant out-shoots of statistics. Classical statistical techniques reckon life time observations as precise numbers and solely cover variation among the observations. In fact, there are two types of uncertainty in data: variation among the observations and the fuzziness. To this effect, the analysis techniques, which do not consider fuzziness and are only based on precise life time observations, use incomplete information; hence lead to pseudo results. This study aimed at generalizing parameters estimation, survival functions, and hazard rates for fuzzy life time data.     

Case study of an evaluation coaching model: Exploring the role of the evaluator

This study examined the role of the external evaluator as a coach. More specifically, using an evaluative inquiry framework (Preskill and Torres, 1999a, Preskill and Torres, 1999b), it explored the types of coaching that an evaluator employed to promote individual, team and organizational learning. The study demonstrated that evaluation coaching provided a viable means for an organization with a limited budget to conduct evaluations through support of a coach. It also demonstrated how the coaching processes supported the development of evaluation capacity within the organization. By examining coaching models outside of the field of evaluation, this study identified two forms of coaching — results coaching and developmental coaching — that promoted evaluation capacity building and have not been previously discussed in the evaluation literature.     

下游厂商自建产能时的供应链契约设计-基于上游厂商的视角

基于上游供应商的视角，分析下游厂商自建产能后，上游厂商的应对之策。结果表明：上游厂商可以通过采取两部选择权契约以保障自身产能投资和利润的风险转嫁问题。上游厂商的利润因下游具有自有产能而下降。但在两部选择权契约下，上游厂商能够收取保证金，虽然产能利用率风险受到转嫁，但利润变动的风险却较小。下游厂商具有产能者因自行生产而减少订购量，不具有产能者订购量将会因此增加，但两下游厂商的利润均会增加。采取两部选择权契约能使上游利润的变动风险小于其他契约，上游供应商的利润得以保障。     

Do Faster Rescues Save More Lives

The primary mission of search and rescue (SAR) is the saving of lives. To assess SAR operations from a planning perspective, one must draw a connection between operations and the number of lives saved. Our approach is to model the probability that an incident results in at least one fatality, given the response time between the time of incident occurrence and time of rescue. We show that incidents involving air crashes, capsizing, foundering, grounding and other/unknown types of incidents tended to have higher probabilities of fatalities as the response time became higher. However, other emergency types did not exhibit the same overall tendency as these did. These statistical results do not prove causality between faster response times and lower fatality incidence for the above-mentioned emergency types. They can be used, however, for estimating the average number of fatalities for a given distribution of response time, and ultimately the marginal savings in lives for a change in the mix of resources and locations.     

Some strange properties of the logistic equation defined withr andK: Inherent defects or artifacts?

Summary In some situations the logistic equation in the usual expression, dN/dt=r(1−N/K)N, exhibits properties that are biologically unrealistic. For example, whenr≦0 the population can no longer show any normal, negative response in per-capita growth rate to increasing density. Also, when the equation is employed in the Volterra's competition model, a familiar but incredible conclusion is derived which says that the outcome of competition is entirely independent of the reproductive potentialr of each species. It is shown that all such strange properties are mere artifacts arising peculiarly in thisr-K model from its misleading implicit supposition thatK could be independent ofr, and they can be readily removed by alternative use of a plainer, classical form of the model, dN/dt=(r−hN)N.     

Estimation of population size and survival of sheep blowfly,Lucilia cuprina, in the field from serial recoveries of marked flies affected by weather dispersal and age-dependent trappability

Summary A model is presented for analysis of mark-recapture data of mobile insects which, unlike the Lincoln Index, does not require marked individuals to remain within the sampling area or to mix uniformly with the wild population. The model assumes a single or multiple releases of marked insects from the centre of the sampling area and that captured individuals are not returned to the population. Dispersal rates of marked insects are estimable from serial recaptures and, for catches that are either unaffected by or have been corrected for weather effects, the model also provides estimates of mortality and age-dependent trappability. Application of the model is illustrated using mark-recapture data for adults of the Australian sheep blowflyLucilia cuprina. A Biometrics Unit report detailing all source data, program code and comparisons between dispersal models is available on request from the authors.