Determinants of consistent,timely, and active responses in corporate crises

This paper investigates the individual and combined factors affecting the extent to which corporations respond to crisis events consistently, in a timely manner, and actively. The determinants examined include public relations autonomy, legal dominance, strategic orientation, and organizational factors. A survey was conducted of communications mangers, public affairs personnel, and public relations personnel, drawn from the top 500 companies operating in Taiwan. Results indicate that the relative effect of individual sources of influence on crisis response is greatest for situations in which public relations departments have the most autonomy, followed by those where crisis management is handled with a strategic orientation, those where the legal departments dominate, and those where organizational factors provide the main avenue of address. The results emphasize the intriguing role of public relations autonomy by demonstrating its significant impact on providing a consistent, timely, and active crisis response. The strategic orientation of situation analysis also predicts a consistent response, whereas legal dominance predicts strategic ambiguity or inconsistent communication.     

Men's Participation in Family Planning Decisions in Kenya

At the beginning of the 1930's Sweden had one of the lowest reproduction rates in Europe, and a decline in population was regarded as imminent. Since then, however, developments have shown a different trend and the natural increase has become higher, the fears about a decrease in population thus being considerably lessened or entirely removed.     

A generalization of the compound rayleigh distribution: using a bayesian method on cancer survival times

In this paper the generalized compound Rayleigh model, exhibiting flexible hazard rate, is high¬lighted. This makes it attractive for modelling survival times of patients showing characteristics of a random hazard rate. The Bayes estimators are derived for the parameters of this model and some survival time parameters from a right censored sample. This is done with respect to conjugate and discrete priors on the parameters of this model, under the squared error loss function, Varian's asymmetric linear-exponential (linex) loss function and a weighted linex loss function. The future survival time of a patient is estimated under these loss functions. A Monte Carlo simu¬lation procedure is used where closed form expressions of the estimators cannot be obtained. An example illustrates the proposed estimators for this model.     

政府采购与经济增长的实证研究——基于ARMA最优模型

本文采用基于ARMA模型适用于小样本的最优预测的建模方法,来分析政府采购和经济增长之间的因果关系。研究结果表明政府采购和经济增长之间存在非对称、单向因果关系,即政府采购对经济增长的影响不显著,而经济增长对政府采购具有促进作用。因此,从政府采购影响路径的角度分析认为,在后金融危机时代应该采取一些可行的措施扭转政府采购对经济增长的不显著状况。     

族群认同的血缘性重建--以海村京族人为例

本文对1949年以来海村京族人族群意识的变化进行了考察。认为,客观文化特征的不断消退,族际交流与族群互动的日益频繁,族群认同上功利性取向的不断增加以及“法定”的民族属性对京族认同的冲击,使海村京族人的族群认同面临表述上的危机。为了应对这种危机,海村京族人不得不重新利用血缘关系的不可替代性来重新构建其族群认同,并以此为基础复兴京族传统文化,强化族群成员的族群意识。     

Semiparametric regression methods for temporal processes subject to multiple sources of censoring

Process regression methodology is underdeveloped relative to the frequency with which pertinent data arise. In this article, the response-190 is a binary indicator process representing the joint event of being alive and remaining in a specific state. The process is indexed by time (e.g., time since diagnosis) and observed continuously. Data of this sort occur frequently in the study of chronic disease. A general area of application involves a recurrent event with non-negligible duration (e.g., hospitalization and associated length of hospital stay) and subject to a terminating event (e.g., death). We propose a semiparametric multiplicative model for the process version of the probability of being alive and in the (transient) state of interest. Under the proposed methods, the regression parameter is estimated through a procedure that does not require estimating the baseline probability. Unlike the majority of process regression methods, the proposed methods accommodate multiple sources of censoring. In particular, we derive a computationally convenient variant of inverse probability of censoring weighting based on the additive hazards model. We show that the regression parameter estimator is asymptotically normal, and that the baseline probability function estimator converges to a Gaussian process. Simulations demonstrate that our estimators have good finite sample performance. We apply our method to national end-stage liver disease data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 222–237; 2020 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

福利国家为什么需要慈善部门？

自福利国家陷入危机以来,慈善部门在福利国家中的功能问题一直没有得到全面和系统的讨论。福利多元主义者将慈善部门视为政府的合作伙伴,希望通过政府委托慈善部门提供公共服务的方式来缓解福利国家的危机;新自由主义者则认为这一定位会使慈善部门对政府的资金产生依赖,使慈善部门失去独立性,因而主张以市场化的方式来解决国家的福利供给问题,让慈善部门在公共服务以外的领域发挥作用。辨析福利多元主义与新自由主义的争论,结合全球化时代慈善部门出现的新特征,可以看到,慈善部门在福利国家中具有绩效提升、结构补充、价值倡导、民主促进、就业吸收和国际支援等六大功能。     

基于心理危机干预的社会文化价值探析及建设研究

随着思维能力的提高和自我意识的凸显,不少人在个体价值体系建构中出现偏差,诱发出多种心理危机.文化引领人的心理建构,而人的价值观念在心理建构过程中发挥着核心作用,如何引导人们进行心理危机干预及预防是当今社会文化价值建设的重要课题.本文尝试从人的存在意义引导、主流文化体系建构、危机干预的价值引领、强化人文关怀干预理念、普及生命教育、构建社会主义和谐社区进行了文化价值探析及建设研究.     

A visualization method measuring the performance of biomarkers for guiding treatment decisions

Biomarkers that predict efficacy and safety for a given drug therapy become increasingly important for treatment strategy and drug evaluation in personalized medicine. Methodology for appropriately identifying and validating such biomarkers is critically needed, although it is very challenging to develop, especially in trials of terminal diseases with survival endpoints. The marker‐by‐treatment predictiveness curve serves this need by visualizing the treatment effect on survival as a function of biomarker for each treatment. In this article, we propose the weighted predictiveness curve (WPC). Based on the nature of the data, it generates predictiveness curves by utilizing either parametric or nonparametric approaches. Especially for nonparametric predictiveness curves, by incorporating local assessment techniques, it requires minimum model assumptions and provides great flexibility to visualize the marker‐by‐treatment relationship. WPC can be used to compare biomarkers and identify the one with the highest potential impact. Equally important, by simultaneously viewing several treatment‐specific predictiveness curves across the biomarker range, WPC can also guide the biomarker‐based treatment regimens. Simulations representing various scenarios are employed to evaluate the performance of WPC. Application on a well‐known liver cirrhosis trial sheds new light on the data and leads to discovery of novel patterns of treatment biomarker interactions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

抗日文学光环掩盖下的文革

何顿的抗日题材长篇小说《来生再见》,其写作的重心不在抗日,而在文革;作家关注的不是历史,而是普通人在极端政治条件下人性的挣扎。生存环境险恶严酷的抗战时期,主人公黄抗日能够应用自己的生存哲学虎口脱身,回到家中安静地生活;但在文革的政治环境下,他却被逼得装疯、吃屎,家破人亡,生活、人格肢解得体无完肤。作品通过这种对比竖起了一座文革无字碑,形成对文革无言的控诉。