A Note on Inconsistency of NPMLE of the Distribution Function from Left Truncated and Case I Interval Censored Data

We show that under reasonable conditions the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate (NPMLE) of the distribution function from left-truncated and case 1 interval-censored data is inconsistent, in contrast to the consistency properties of the NPMLE from only left-truncated data or only interval-censored data. However, the conditional NPMLE is shown to be consistent. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate their finite sample properties.     

“生存性智慧模式”——对中国市民社会研究既有理论模式的检视

就市民社会研究而言,生存性智慧模式的基本理论预设是:由于统治体系内部的利益分化、政府失灵,特别是统治体系本身的理性有限和中国人特有的生存性智慧的实践运行,市民社会组织有可能在当下的分类控制体系中未意图扩展,进而在实践中逐步形成独特的、符合中国理想图景要求的市民社会发育及民主转型模式。     

Bayesian and likelihood inference for cure rates based on defective inverse Gaussian regression models

Failure time models are considered when there is a subpopulation of individuals that is immune, or not susceptible, to an event of interest. Such models are of considerable interest in biostatistics. The most common approach is to postulate a proportion p of immunes or long-term survivors and to use a mixture model [5]. This paper introduces the defective inverse Gaussian model as a cure model and examines the use of the Gibbs sampler together with a data augmentation algorithm to study Bayesian inferences both for the cured fraction and the regression parameters. The results of the Bayesian and likelihood approaches are illustrated on two real data sets.     

Bias and precision of measures of survival gain from right‐censored data

In cost‐effectiveness analyses of drugs or health technologies, estimates of life years saved or quality‐adjusted life years saved are required. Randomised controlled trials can provide an estimate of the average treatment effect; for survival data, the treatment effect is the difference in mean survival. However, typically not all patients will have reached the endpoint of interest at the close‐out of a trial, making it difficult to estimate the difference in mean survival. In this situation, it is common to report the more readily estimable difference in median survival. Alternative approaches to estimating the mean have also been proposed. We conducted a simulation study to investigate the bias and precision of the three most commonly used sample measures of absolute survival gain – difference in median, restricted mean and extended mean survival – when used as estimates of the true mean difference, under different censoring proportions, while assuming a range of survival patterns, represented by Weibull survival distributions with constant, increasing and decreasing hazards. Our study showed that the three commonly used methods tended to underestimate the true treatment effect; consequently, the incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER) would be overestimated. Of the three methods, the least biased is the extended mean survival, which perhaps should be used as the point estimate of the treatment effect to be inputted into the ICER, while the other two approaches could be used in sensitivity analyses. More work on the trade‐offs between simple extrapolation using the exponential distribution and more complicated extrapolation using other methods would be valuable. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The log-exponentiated generalized gamma regression model for censored data

For the first time, we introduce a generalized form of the exponentiated generalized gamma distribution [Cordeiro et al. The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data, J. Statist. Comput. Simul. 81 (2011), pp. 827–842.] that is the baseline for the log-exponentiated generalized gamma regression model. The new distribution can accommodate increasing, decreasing, bathtub- and unimodal-shaped hazard functions. A second advantage is that it includes classical distributions reported in the lifetime literature as special cases. We obtain explicit expressions for the moments of the baseline distribution of the new regression model. The proposed model can be applied to censored data since it includes as sub-models several widely known regression models. It therefore can be used more effectively in the analysis of survival data. We obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the model parameters by considering censored data. We show that our extended regression model is very useful by means of two applications to real data.     

论文明理论的发展与生态文明的提出

自改革开放以来,关于文明理论与中国的文明发展问题,历经两个文明、三个文明、四个文明等发展到今日的生态文明并成为共识。文明的本质不能简单理解为改造自然的成果和进步状态,而应看做是对人的生存价值世界在生产和分配上的合理性与合法性的衡量。这种合理性与合法性体现为人与自然、人与人的和谐与平衡。传统文明作为人从自然界分离的产物,本身就具有非自然、反生态性,其极端发展导致了今日的生态危机。今日人类精神只有从类群伦理、国家伦理上升到世界伦理、生态伦理的高度上来,才能实施与生态环境相协调的生态文明的发展上来。     

由传统中发现新变——“今文学”与晚清诗学演变之关联考察

"今文学"作为一种学术思潮对晚清诗学的影响是双重的,它不仅具有一般学术法则对诗学发展的规约性,而且也在意识形态领域决定了晚清诗学的发展演变。从发生学上来讲,"今文学"的兴盛与晚清诗学的演变往往表现出同构对应、共振同行的关系。晚清诗学演变在诗学生态、诗学主体、诗学行为、诗学接受、诗学价值等层面都与"今文学"保持着高度的一致性;而且,晚清相关诗学家与诗派的诗学演变也体现出与"今文学"发展较为相似的对应性进程。     

试论高校辅导员的对话式生存

对话为高校辅导员提供了一种新的生存方式。高校辅导员对话式生存具有对话性和对话式双重含义,具有平等、自由、互动,融合、生成、创造,包容、共有、共存等特征。对话式生存是高校辅导员的必然选择,各种有效的策略有助于其实现对话式生存。     

《寒夜》与巴金的女性伦理观

《寒夜》是巴金的一部重要代表作,极具感染力,描写了在抗战后期作为陪都的重庆的一个小知识分子的家庭生活。作家把眼光从关注大家庭、关注社会变迁转移到关注小人物的日常生活。文章试图从曾树生的悲剧命运中探析巴金这时期的女性伦理观,在女性解放的浪潮下巴金的女性伦理观日趋成熟客观,曾树生体现了那个时代知识女性的理想与现实的错位给她们带来的尴尬处境。曾树生正是作家这时期对女性解放的思考的一个结果,也是作家对于现代女性,尤其是知识女性出路的一种困惑和无奈心境的真实写照。     

卡在喉咙里的金戒指——略论黄碧云小说的暴力美学特点

黄碧云的小说文字风格凌厉,擅于通过对生活细节与人性表现方式的精准把握,极力描写人性阴暗、冷酷和暴力的一面,她的这些小说表现出了有别于其他作家的暴力美学特点。本文以《失城》和《呕吐》为例,从历史性的身份焦虑和现代性的生存焦虑两方面对黄碧云小说的暴力美学进行解读。