唐朝军政统治的终局与五代十国割据的开端

淮南节度使高骈在史书中一直被认为"惑于神仙之说",通过对崔致远<桂苑笔耕集>考察,却发现这是淮南节度使实行的一种改革.它的目的是克服唐王朝军政、财政全面崩溃的困境,使其走向完全独立化."妖人吕用之之党"其实具有下层商人的特性,而且跟扬州周边有盐铁专卖的关系,因此可以说是改革的旗手.促使他们灭亡的原因就是当时各州府互相斗争的状态的持续,这到五代十国时也成了诸势力的政治课题.     

中国古代建筑与传统文化

建筑除了具有实用价值以外,还反映了一定历史时期的文化。本文主要从"礼制"和"风水"两个方面简述了中国传统文化对古代建筑的影响。     

略论传统伦理道德的发展规律和历史命运-传统伦理道德思想论纲之一

中华民族在血缘宗亲的群体关系中,高度地发挥着人的本性,随着孝养的制度化,传统伦理道德思想从其原生期、形成期逐渐走入成熟期,发展出以三纲五常为主体的政治性伦理思想和以仁义说为核心的品格性伦理思想.前者借专制集权主义而大行其道,渐趋极端,压制着后者,扭曲着人性.后者顽强地抗争,熔铸着民族的精神,培养着"民族的脊梁".二者既对立又统一,既冲突又融合,共同构成传统伦理道德思想.这个矛盾的统一体循其矛盾规律而发展,从不中断,绝不消亡,在经过漫长的成熟期的五个阶段后,必然迈入自己的高级期.     

Ethics Creep: Governing Social Science Research in the Name of Ethics

This article presents an analysis of the Canadian ethics review process by a member of a Research Ethics Board. The author suggests that the new formal system for regulating the ethical conduct of scholarly research is experiencing a form of ethics creep. This is characterized by a dual process whereby the regulatory system is expanding outward to incorporate a host of new activities and institutions, while at the same time intensifying the regulation of activities deemed to fall within its ambit. These tendencies are demonstrated through an analysis of: 1) the scope of research ethics protocols, 2) the concept of harm employed by these boards, 3) the use of informed consent provisions, and 4) the presumption that research participants will remain anonymous. To accentuate the nature of this ethics creep, comparisons are made between the ways in which identical knowledge generation activities are governed within journalism and the academy. The conclusion suggests that one effect of the increasingly formalized research ethics structure is to rupture the relationship between following the rules and acting ethically. Some of the reasons for this creep are highlighted along with the risks that it poses for scholarship.     

Bayesian Estimation of Survival Functions under Stochastic Precedence

When estimating the distributions of two random variables, X and Y, investigators often have prior information that Y tends to be bigger than X. To formalize this prior belief, one could potentially assume stochastic ordering between X and Y, which implies Pr(X < or = z) > or = Pr(Y < or = z) for all z in the domain of X and Y. Stochastic ordering is quite restrictive, though, and this article focuses instead on Bayesian estimation of the distribution functions of X and Y under the weaker stochastic precedence constraint, Pr(X < or = Y) > or = 0.5. We consider the case where both X and Y are categorical variables with common support and develop a Gibbs sampling algorithm for posterior computation. The method is then generalized to the case where X and Y are survival times. The proposed approach is illustrated using data on survival after tumor removal for patients with malignant melanoma.     

Marginal Means/Rates Models for Multiple Type Recurrent Event Data

Recurrent events are frequently observed in biomedical studies, and often more than one type of event is of interest. Follow-up time may be censored due to loss to follow-up or administrative censoring. We propose a class of semi-parametric marginal means/rates models, with a general relative risk form, for assessing the effect of covariates on the censored event processes of interest. We formulate estimating equations for the model parameters, and examine asymptotic properties of the parameter estimators. Finite sample properties of the regression coefficients are examined through simulations. The proposed methods are applied to a retrospective cohort study of risk factors for preschool asthma.     

Regression Analysis of Restricted Mean Survival Time Based on Pseudo-Observations

Regression models for survival data are often specified from the hazard function while classical regression analysis of quantitative outcomes focuses on the mean value (possibly after suitable transformations). Methods for regression analysis of mean survival time and the related quantity, the restricted mean survival time, are reviewed and compared to a method based on pseudo-observations. Both Monte Carlo simulations and two real data sets are studied. It is concluded that while existing methods may be superior for analysis of the mean, pseudo-observations seem well suited when the restricted mean is studied.     

Comparisons of Test Statistics Arising from Marginal Analyses of Multivariate Survival Data

We investigate the properties of several statistical tests for comparing treatment groups with respect to multivariate survival data, based on the marginal analysis approach introduced by Wei, Lin and Weissfeld [Regression Analysis of multivariate incomplete failure time data by modelling marginal distributians, JASA vol. 84 pp. 1065–1073]. We consider two types of directional tests, based on a constrained maximization and on linear combinations of the unconstrained maximizer of the working likelihood function, and the omnibus test arising from the same working likelihood. The directional tests are members of a larger class of tests, from which an asymptotically optimal test can be found. We compare the asymptotic powers of the tests under general contiguous alternatives for a variety of settings, and also consider the choice of the number of survival times to include in the multivariate outcome. We illustrate the results with simulations and with the results from a clinical trial examining recurring opportunistic infections in persons with HIV.     

Choice of Parametric Accelerated Life and Proportional Hazards Models for Survival Data: Asymptotic Results

We discuss the impact of misspecifying fully parametric proportional hazards and accelerated life models. For the uncensored case, misspecified accelerated life models give asymptotically unbiased estimates of covariate effect, but the shape and scale parameters depend on the misspecification. The covariate, shape and scale parameters differ in the censored case. Parametric proportional hazards models do not have a sound justification for general use: estimates from misspecified models can be very biased, and misleading results for the shape of the hazard function can arise. Misspecified survival functions are more biased at the extremes than the centre. Asymptotic and first order results are compared. If a model is misspecified, the size of Wald tests will be underestimated. Use of the sandwich estimator of standard error gives tests of the correct size, but misspecification leads to a loss of power. Accelerated life models are more robust to misspecification because of their log-linear form. In preliminary data analysis, practitioners should investigate proportional hazards and accelerated life models; software is readily available for several such models.     

盈余管理泛滥的制度原因与治理——基于中美资本市场的比较分析

盈余管理是导致会计信息失真,困扰资本市场有效运行的一大痼疾.其泛滥根本原因在于制度安排缺乏对滥用准则行为的有力制约,甚至产生诱导效果,而不是因为准则中存在可被利用的空间,与美国相比,我国的问题是尚未建立盈余管理的约束机制.治理盈余管理不能依靠修订会计准则,而应改进现有制度安排以强化阻碍力量,尤其政策上应变被动防范为主动查处,对滥用准则行为说"不".