Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts with Bayesian Signal Detection Models

We propose the use of signal detection theory (SDT) to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic forecasting systems and individual forecasters. The main advantage of SDT is that it provides a principled way to distinguish the response from system diagnosticity, which is defined as the ability to distinguish events that occur from those that do not. There are two challenges in applying SDT to probabilistic forecasts. First, the SDT model must handle judged probabilities rather than the conventional binary decisions. Second, the model must be able to operate in the presence of sparse data generated within the context of human forecasting systems. Our approach is to specify a model of how individual forecasts are generated from underlying representations and use Bayesian inference to estimate the underlying latent parameters. Given our estimate of the underlying representations, features of the classic SDT model, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC), follow immediately. We show how our approach allows ROC curves and AUCs to be applied to individuals within a group of forecasters, estimated as a function of time, and extended to measure differences in forecastability across different domains. Among the advantages of this method is that it depends only on the ordinal properties of the probabilistic forecasts. We conclude with a brief discussion of how this approach might facilitate decision making.     

以孝道文化为核心的崇德向善理念之理论建构

习近平总书记高度重视道德建设，多次强调儒家思想在政府建设新型社会主义价值观过程中的重要地位。以孝道文化为核心的崇德向善理念的理论建构，可从三个方面进行分析论证：其研究视角是重视孝道文化在儒家思想中的核心地位，领会儒家思想占据政府建设新型价值观重要地位的明显趋势，从当代社会主义公民价值观的内涵定义来界定这一理论；其理论建构是以崇德向善为理念、以孝道文化为核心、以家庭教育为平台的结构框架；其对策和措施包括坚持“顶层设计、政府主导”的原则，采取“家庭为主、学校为辅”的教育方式，倡导“民俗为媒、繁荣节庆”的教育形式，强化“市场搭台、文化立国”运行机制。     

CEO duality and firm performance: The moderating roles of other executives and blockholding outside directors

This study examines how the effect of CEO duality on firm performance is affected by two internal governance forces – namely other executives in the top management team and blockholding outside directors. Results based on a longitudinal dataset from the U.S. computer industry were consistent with my hypotheses. Specifically, I found that the effect of CEO duality was negative when the CEO had dominant power relative to other executives and when the board had a blockholding outside director, but was nonsignificant otherwise. This study enriches our understanding of the effect of CEO duality, and helps reinforce the call for the nonduality structure as the default choice and put the burden of proof on those who wish to justify otherwise on special grounds.     

罗尔斯分配正义及对我国分配问题的启示

罗尔斯的正义论不只是对传统正义观的继承,更是对其的创新和发展。它较为深刻地论述了个人与社会关系这一带有普遍意义的社会基本问题。分配正义是转型期中国社会遇到的核心问题,是诱发各种社会矛盾的根源之一。罗尔斯所提出的解决分配不正义的基本原则和设想,给我们勾画了一个自由又平等的社会愿景。其《正义论》可以说给我们提供了一个解决社会不正义的极其优化的解决方案。     

“信息”与知识产权对象

“信息”一词在不同的语境中具有不同的含义。作为知识产权对象的信息不应是信息论意义上的信息，而应是控制论意义上的信息，即具有“同型结构＋意义”双重结构。这有其法学上的规范意义。具备“源于人、有价值、法定性”条件的信息即可成为知识产权的对象。     

大面阵CCD航测相机图像去黑斑的处理

在大面阵数字航测相机的使用过程中,存在影像光照不均匀的问题.由于硬件设计很难达到预想的效果,在光照过于强烈的情况下,还会产生CCD过饱和的现象,通过增加遮光片可以解决这一问题,但全色波段的影像会产生黑斑.而通过马斯克匀光的方法去除中心的黑斑,提高影像的质量.并且将图像中心的反差增大,加大对比度,增大图像灰度的动态范围.     

一种新型养老模式：以房养老

以房养老是一种全新的养老模式，以房养老涉及到的理论较多，现实中也存在着许多障碍，需要政府制定相应的法律、法规及政策为以房养老保驾护航。     

论口译中翻译笔记的度的掌握

口译是翻译活动中的一项极其具有挑战性的工作，对译员的要求也非常高。论文在阐述了口译中翻译笔记的必要性和重要性之后，主要探讨了在连续传译中译员对翻译笔记所应该掌握的尺度：即既要认识到笔记的重要性，记好笔记；又要认识到笔记只是辅助，在翻译过程中，更应该注意在激活图式结构的帮助下开发大脑对讲话内容的整体把握和理解记忆。只有这样，在笔记的帮助下，口译员才更加有可能做到在理解之后更加准确、全面地翻译。     

Women Auto Know: Automotive knowledge,auto activism,and women's online car advice

Although women influence nearly 85 percent of new car sales, their experience at automotive dealerships differs significantly from that of men. Not only are women subject to sexist and patronizing behavior from automotive personnel, but they also often wind up paying considerably more for a vehicle than a male customer. In the past two decades, the Internet has evolved as a significant source of automotive information and advice. While the majority of car advice websites offer guidance to the general public, a handful address the automotive concerns of the female driver. These sites are significant not only for the information they make accessible to female visitors, but for what women gain—as drivers, consumers, and political actors—by reading them. This paper examines four popular websites that cater specifically to the woman driver. Calling upon feminist epistemologies, it demonstrates how such online locations empower women to become more informed drivers and consumers through the accumulation and distribution of women's automotive knowledge. Not only does this automotive knowledge aid women as negotiators, but it also provides them with the tools necessary to radically transform the hostile auto dealership culture, ultimately benefiting all in the market for an automobile.