土改与乡村权力关系的重塑——以新中国成立初期的四川绵阳专区为例

新中国成立初期的土地改革,从经济上摧毁了旧社会政治关系的基础,颠覆了我国乡村社会传统的政治格 局和秩序,对当代中国历史发展产生了深远影响。本文以新中国成立初期（1950—1952 年）四川绵阳的史料为基础, 借助政治社会学视角研究新中国成立前后的重大历史事件与中国社会变迁,探讨我党确立执政地位的历史逻辑。新 中国成立初期,我党通过政治动员,成功地让农民形成了具有明确指向的阶级意识,积极投身到群众运动之中。同 时,“公审斗争”和“没收赔罚”彻底摧毁了地主的权威,农民由此掌握乡村的话语权,成为政治活动的主体。我党通过 干部整训,着力培育造就新的基层执政者,实现了乡村权力关系的重塑。     

Methods to Distinguish Between Polynomial and Exponential Tails

Two methods to distinguish between polynomial and exponential tails are introduced. The methods are based on the properties of the residual coefficient of variation for the exponential and non‐exponential distributions. A graphical method, called a CV‐plot, shows departures from exponentiality in the tails. The plot is applied to the daily log‐returns of exchange rates of US dollar and Japanese yen. New statistics are introduced for testing the exponentiality of tails using multiple thresholds. They give better control of the significance level than previous tests. The powers of the new tests are compared with those of some others for various sample sizes.     

Non Null Asymptotic Distributions of Some Criteria in Censored Exponential Regression

In this article, we consider the class of censored exponential regression models which is very useful for modeling lifetime data. Under a sequence of Pitman alternatives, the asymptotic expansions up to order n^{? 1/2} of the non null distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, Rao score, and gradient statistics are derive in this class of models. The non null asymptotic distribution functions of these statistics are obtained for testing a composite null hypothesis in the presence of nuisance parameters. The power of all four tests, which are equivalent to first order, are compared based on these non null asymptotic expansions. Furthermore, in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests in this class of models, we consider Monte Carlo simulations. We also present an empirical application for illustrative purposes.     

Media,fear, and nuclear energy: A case study

Although electricity generation technologies and safety have improved gradually over time, nuclear power, including generation facilities and waste repositories, are seemingly stigmatized in American culture. Contemporary literature has considered the impact of widely broadcasting nuclear accidents and how media coverage might alter public risk perceptions and in turn, U.S. nuclear policy. This paper discusses the vacillation of public support in recent decades and its ties to both media and scientific reporting. The analysis identifies how media coverage of accidents at Chernobyl, Three-Mile Island, and Fukushima overwhelmed scientific claims of safety and security in nuclear energy production. Additionally, the discussion considers how to bridge the information gap between scientists, citizens, and policymakers through increased knowledge dissemination. Finally, the implications of improved scientific communication in democratic policymaking processes are discussed.     

福柯“公共性”之辩

围绕公共性这一话题,学界大多在开放而非封闭、权利与责任、交往理性与主体间性等启蒙与反思体系之中展开。而对于知识社会学领域中的福柯来说,公共性的话语不是体现在“公共性”的思辨体系上,而是隐含于保卫社会及其旨趣之中。在福柯的研究视域里,社会由公众、知识、权力、现代性意义的启蒙及相关社会事实构成。这种结构的本质即为具有开放、联结、互动、批判等属性的公共性。知识之公共性、权力之公共性以及启蒙之公共性即为福柯社会学视域中公共性及其关怀对象。就归属主体来说,公共性属于社会公众。就知识社会学视域的公共性而言,已有的知识需要反省;未开启或有意回避的研究对象需要纳入;构成社会结构、社会组织支撑点的权力需要重新检讨;而极具理性意义的启蒙也需要反思与批判。福柯独具匠心地提出,“被屈服的知识”应该进行一场知识翻转,沿此路径,公共性的关切对象应超越专断与狭隘,这即为保卫社会公共性的关键。      

“搁置争议”视野下中国海权战略的选择

20 世纪70 年代,邓小平提出“搁置争议”思想,这既是国际政治环境发展的客观要求,也是中国自身实力所限的历史必然。“搁置争议”思想提出后,我国当代几代领导集体坚持这一思想,一定程度缓解和平息了中国与周边国家的海权争议,为中国赢得可贵的和平与发展时代良机。党的“十八大”明确提出的“海洋强国”战略,为今后我国海权发展提出了新的任务和要求,在“搁置争议”思想下中国海权发展既面临机遇,也充满挑战。“黄岩岛”模式、“钓鱼岛”模式、“共同开发”模式、“自我开发”模式既是对“搁置争议”思想的继承,也是一种发展,是当前及今后一个时期中国海权发展战略的选择。坚持和发展“搁置争议”思想对中国海权发展具有重要的战略意义。     

Notes on two sample tests for partially correlated (paired) data

We provide several methods to compare two Gaussian distributed means in the two sample location problems under the assumption of partially dependent observations. Simulation studies indicate that our test procedure is frequently more powerful than other methods depending on the ratio of the unpaired data and the strength and direction of the correlation between the two variables. The tests used in our comparative study are illustrated with an example based on data from a small gynecological study.     

Ho-Lee利率模型下带有零息票债券的投资-消费模型

在随机利率环境下研究一类带有零息票债券的投资-消费问题,其中假设无风险利率是服从Ho-Lee利率模型的随机过程,且金融市场由一种无风险资产、一种风险资产和一种零息票债券所构成。投资人希望选择一种最优投资-消费策略来最大化其有限时间段内终端财富和累积消费的期望效用。文章应用动态规划原理和变量替换方法得到了幂效用和对数效用下最优投资-消费策略的显示解。算例分析演示了最优投资-消费策略随市场参数的变化而变化的动态行为,并给出了一些经济学涵义。     

论后冷战时代的中国海权与航空母舰

海权是大国崛起的重要因素。进入后冷战时代,中国海权观念有了很大的发展,主要表现为战略海权观、合作海权观、复合海权观、经济海权观和海洋国土观。作为后冷战时代中国海权发展的产物,航空母舰已经进入中国海军的战斗序列。航空母舰的服役将反作用于海权观念,大大增强中国海权的物质基础。本文将就中国海权与航空母舰之间的辩证关系进行研究与探讨。     

递归均值调整单位根检验能提高检验功效吗?

根据备择假设成立时均值是否为零,讨论了三类单位根检验统计量的检验功效。理论研究表明:在大样本下,检验功效只与检验类型有关,与均值取值无关。蒙特卡洛模拟表明:在有限样本下,均值会影响检验功效,当均值为零时,第一类DF检验功效最高;当均值大于零时,在绝大多数场合下,第二类DF检验功效最优。因此,递归均值调整单位根检验功效仅在有限条件下最大。