Estimation and Welfare Analysis With Large Demand Systems

We develop an approach for estimating individual or household level preferences for a large set of quality-differentiated goods and for constructing Hicksian welfare measures within the demand system framework. Our approach uses a maximum simulated likelihood procedure to recover estimates of the structural parameters and a multistage, Monte Carlo Markov chain algorithm for constructing Hicksian consumer surplus estimates. We illustrate our approach with a recreation dataset consisting of day trips to 62 Mid-Atlantic beaches.     

A natural conjugate prior for the nonhomogeneous poisson process with an exponential intensity function

This article presents a natural conjugate prior for the nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with an exponential intensity function, for modeling the failure rate of repairable systems. The behavior of the conjugate prior distribution with respect to its parameters is studied, and the use of this prior in Bayesian estimation is compared to two other estimation approaches (the use of independent prior distributions, and the bivariate normal distribution). The use of the conjugate prior proposed here facilitates Bayesian statistical analysis of aging. In particular, the proposed prior allows us to explicitly account for dependence between the initial failure rate and the aging rate. This is a significant improvement over the assumptions made in most prior work (either the assumption that the aging rate is known, or the assumption that the initial failure rate and the aging rate are independent). Monte Carlo simulation shows that Bayesian estimation using the proposed prior generally performs at least as well as Bayesian estimation using independent priors for the initial failure rate and the aging rate,except in the case where the prior distribution underestimates both the initial failure rate and the aging rate.     

Seasonal Time Series and Transfer Function Modeling

A simple modification is suggested for the construction of transfer function models relating an output variable Y_t to an input variable X_t when the model for X_t contains operators that cancel out. In addition, the evaluation of transfer function models is discussed by comparing the forecasts with the actual observations.     

Alternate test statistics for a functional errors-in-variables model

Some test statistics for the structural coefficients of simultaneous equations model often referred to as the multivariate linear functional relationship model are proposed in this article. The following cases are considered: the covariance matrix of errors is either unknown, known up to a proportionality factor, or completely known. The exact and approximate distributions of the proposed test statistics, as well as those of some that are known, are also given.     

Evaluation of an analysis approach used to account for extra-variation in clustered categorical responses

This article presents the results of a simulation study investigating the performance of an approach developed by Miller and Landis (1991) for the analysis of clustered categorical responses. Evaluation of this “two-step” approach, which utilizes the method of moments to estimate the extra-variation pardmeters and subsequently incorporates these parameters into estimating equations for modelling the marginal expectations, is carried out in an experimental setting involving a comparison between two groups of observations. We assume that data for both groups are collected from each cluster and responses are measured on a three-point ordinal scale. The performance of the estimators used in both “steps” of the analysisis investigated and comparisons are made to an alternative analysismethod that ignores the clustering. The results indicate that in the chosen setting the test for a difference between groups generally operatbs at the nominal α=0.05 for 10 or more clusters and hasincreasing power with both an increasing number of clusters and an inrreasing treatment effect. These results provide a striking contrasc to those obtained from an improper analysis that ignores clustering.     

Estimation in an empirical bayes model for longitudinal and cross‐sectionally clustered binary data

Some studies generate data that can be grouped into clusters in more than one way. Consider for instance a smoking prevention study in which responses on smoking status are collected over several years in a cohort of students from a number of different schools. This yields longitudinal data, also cross‐sectionaliy clustered in schools. The authors present a model for analyzing binary data of this type, combining generalized estimating equations and estimation of random effects to address the longitudinal and cross‐sectional dependence, respectively. The estimation procedure for this model is discussed, as are the results of a simulation study used to investigate the properties of its estimates. An illustration using data from a smoking prevention trial is given.     

青岛一套表的实践与经验

 企业统计一套表一直是统计制度方法改革和实践中的焦点问题。本文通过对青岛市统计局企业一套表制度实施情况的案例分析,系统界定了企业一套表的概念和内涵,全面展现了企业一套表的运作过程,客观分析了制约企业一套表实施的主要原因,并提出了在现阶段实施企业统计一套表的条件和要求。     

中国农村公共服务评价体系研究

农村公共服务水平低下和不平衡是导致城乡差距日益扩大的重要影响因素之一。本文试图构建农村公共服务发展状况评价指标体系,并基于2006年的数据进行实证研究,给出了研究结果的进一步分析评价。     

Asymptotic Analysis of the Sieve Estimator for a Class of Parabolic SPDEs

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating a coefficient of a strongly elliptic partial differential operator in stochastic parabolic equations. The coefficient is a bounded function of time. We compute the maximum likelihood estimate of the function on an approximating space (sieve) using a finite number of the spatial Fourier coefficients of the solution and establish conditions that guarantee consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimate as the number of the coefficients increases. The equation is assumed diagonalizable in the sense that all the operators have a common system of eigenfunctions.     

能级稳态结构──对政府体制优化的一种思考

传统行政管理理论关于能级对应原理中的能级稳态结构模式唯正三角形结构的观点失之偏颇。事实上,政府体制的能级稳态结构不是教条式的,它因历史—社会—文化条件的不同而不同;政府体制的能级稳态结构不是僵化、一成不变的,它随历史—社会—文化条件的发展而发展。当代中国政府体制经过历次变迁正走向一条渐进、理性的道路,在保持“中国特色”政府体制稳态结构──正三角形结构的基本架构不变的基础上,随着历史—文化—社会条件的变化而不断作出调整和优化,这是一条走向全面现代化的成功之路。