Coherent mortality forecasting by the weighted multilevel functional principal component approach

In human mortality modelling, if a population consists of several subpopulations it can be desirable to model their mortality rates simultaneously while taking into account the heterogeneity among them. The mortality forecasting methods tend to result in divergent forecasts for subpopulations when independence is assumed. However, under closely related social, economic and biological backgrounds, mortality patterns of these subpopulations are expected to be non-divergent in the future. In this article, we propose a new method for coherent modelling and forecasting of mortality rates for multiple subpopulations, in the sense of nondivergent life expectancy among subpopulations. The mortality rates of subpopulations are treated as multilevel functional data and a weighted multilevel functional principal component (wMFPCA) approach is proposed to model and forecast them. The proposed model is applied to sex-specific data for nine developed countries, and the results show that, in terms of overall forecasting accuracy, the model outperforms the independent model and the Product-Ratio model as well as the unweighted multilevel functional principal component approach.     

Linear scalar-on-surface random effects regression models

Many research fields increasingly involve analyzing data of a complex structure. Models investigating the dependence of a response on a predictor have moved beyond the ordinary scalar-on-vector regression. We propose a regression model for a scalar response and a surface (or a bivariate function) predictor. The predictor has a random component and the regression model falls in the framework of linear random effects models. We estimate the model parameters via maximizing the log-likelihood with the ECME (Expectation/Conditional Maximization Either) algorithm. We use the approach to analyze a data set where the response is the neuroticism score and the predictor is the resting-state brain function image. In the simulations we tried, the approach has better performance than two other approaches, a functional principal component regression approach and a smooth scalar-on-image regression approach.     

Uniform consistency rate of kNN regression estimation for functional time series data

In this paper, we investigate the k-nearest neighbours (kNN) estimation of nonparametric regression model for strong mixing functional time series data. More precisely, we establish the uniform almost complete convergence rate of the kNN estimator under some mild conditions. Furthermore, a simulation study and an empirical application to the real data analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) are carried out to illustrate the finite sample performances and the usefulness of the kNN approach.     

#BlackLivesMatter: Innovative Black Resistance

Since 2013, extrajudicial police killings of black people have captured the attention of U.S. and international media, substantially because of the work of leaders in the Black Lives Matter (#BLM) movement. #BLM is simultaneously a group of localized organizations and a broad online social movement. In this article, we examine the #BLM movement in detail, with particular emphasis on the following aspects of the movement: (1) its innovative organizational practices and social media use; (2) its accent on black perspectives (counterframing) of systemic racial oppression, heteronormativity, and capitalism; and (3) its broad emphasis on oppressed Americans, including black women and LGBTQ people. We also situate the #BLM movement within the surrounding system of racial oppression, including the historical role of racialized policing in maintaining social control of blacks. We detail the long tradition of black social movements, especially black feminist organizing, against systemic racial oppression. In doing so, we intend to contribute social movement theorizing that more fully considers powerful counterframed perspectives of black activists in U.S. social movements. Although the #BLM movement reflects black feminism and past civil rights movement struggles, it is a uniquely twenty‐first‐century social movement that uses new technologies for innovative social protest.     

Seeing the system: Systemic gender knowledge to support transformational change towards gender equality in science

Scholars agree that gender inequality is systemic and that participants in gender equality interventions need knowledge on gender inequality processes. However, a detailed view on the specific characteristics of this knowledge is as yet missing. This article aims to contribute to gender equality interventions by conceptualizing and visualizing systemic gender knowledge as an important condition for transformational change. Combining gender and participatory system dynamics literature, this article first introduces the concept of systemic gender knowledge. This concept captures two main characteristics that make gender knowledge systemic: knowledge on the interaction of gender inequality processes and endogenous thinking, here implying a focus on the organization as the relevant level of analysis. In addition to this conceptual contribution, the research contributes methodologically to the gender inequality intervention literature by designing a visualization process, translating written texts into system dynamics models which enable exploration of systemic gender knowledge. Finally, the research contributes empirically by exploring the systemic gender knowledge of participants in two science research institutes of a Dutch university, finding shifts in both characteristics of systemic gender knowledge. This enables researchers to discern whether gender equality interventions lead to increases in systemic gender knowledge, thus supporting transformational change.     

论美国保护预备被监护人权益的基本原则

预备被监护人是指即将被安排监护的当事人.经过十余年改革,美国成年监护制度形成了保护预备被监护人权益的一系列基本原则.这些原则包括:"实质性损害"标准、最小限制性替代措施、"功能性行为能力"标准、正当程序原则.我国成年监护制度立法理念相对落后,借鉴美国的成功经验来重构和完善我国的成年监护制度具有重要意义.     

似与不似——论文学作品汉译英过程立场分析的作用

古今中外的作家都会在自己的作品中表达个人的立场与观点。翻译文学作品时,应十分重视原作者的立场观点。而原作者往往通过间接的方法将其立场观点隐含在作品深层,这就给翻译带来困难。汉译英时,汉语中有些文化背景的内容涉及到原作者的立场,译者要认真考虑原文的深层意义,也要考虑译文读者的接受状况。译者务必透过词语表层发掘作品的深层含义,使译文读者得到与原文读者大致相同的感受,达到译文与原文功能对等之目的     

关于Feigenbaum型泛函方程的C^1解

利用Schauder不动点定理、自同胚和紧凸子集的相关性质研究Feigenbaum型泛函方程的连续可微解的存在性和唯一性.     

谈谈《中学教学语法系统提要》的析句法

《中学教学语法系统提要(试用)》用的究竟是哪一种析句法?有人认为用的是句子成分分析法,有人认为用的是层次分析法,还有的人认为它用的是层次分析法和句子成分分析法两结合的分析法。现在看来,还是两结合分析法的说法有道理,它的确是综合吸收了上述两种析句法的精髓而又与两者不相同的一种新分析法:既能反映语言的层次性,又能反映语言的线条性。跟我后来所倡导的"框架核心分析法"十分接近,应该说它是"核心分析法"的一种。     

伍尔夫意识流小说《达罗卫夫人》中的语法变异

意识流小说家善于把内心世界的混乱无序、朦胧的潜意识活动直接显示出来,揭示其内在的真实。这种创作不可避免地破坏了叙述的逻辑性,使语言支离破碎,破坏语言规则,导致了语言的变异,成了意识流小说主要的语言特征。意识流小说的语言在语体风格上独树一帜,在文学创作领域中占有着重要地位。本文以美国著名作家弗吉尼亚.伍尔夫的著作《达罗卫夫人》为线索,剖析了意识流小说的语言风格中语法变异。