“不动摇、不懈怠、不折腾”与我国现阶段的政治体制改革

“不动摇、不懈怠、不折腾”作为一个相互联系的统一整体,科学地回答了我党在领导全国人民改革发展过程中所面临的信念立场、精神状态和方法思路问题,是中华民族实现宏伟蓝图和奋斗目标的政治基础、精神要求和措施保障。推进政治体制改革必须坚持“不动摇、不懈怠、不折腾”的原则,这是由我国的基本国情、政治体制改革的社会主义性质以及国际形势的深刻变化所决定的。它要求我国的政治体制改革不能封闭僵化、停滞不前,而要解放思想,坚定改革开放的信念不动摇;不能改旗易帜、摇摆不定,而要保证人民当家作主,坚持中国特色社会主义根本政治制度;不能急躁冒进、贪多求快,而要走渐进式的政治改革之路,积极稳妥地进行;不能盲目排外、来回折腾,而要结合中国的具体实际,批判性地吸收和借鉴西方政治文明成果。     

Two-way ANOVA when the distribution of the error terms is skew t

In this article, we assume that the distribution of the error terms is skew t in two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Skew t distribution is very flexible for modeling the symmetric and the skew datasets, since it reduces to the well-known normal, skew normal, and Student's t distributions. We obtain the estimators of the model parameters by using the maximum likelihood (ML) and the modified maximum likelihood (MML) methodologies. We also propose new test statistics based on these estimators for testing the equality of the treatment and the block means and also the interaction effect. The efficiencies of the ML and the MML estimators and the power values of the test statistics based on them are compared with the corresponding normal theory results via Monte Carlo simulation study. Simulation results show that the proposed methodologies are more preferable. We also show that the test statistics based on the ML estimators are more powerful than the test statistics based on the MML estimators as expected. However, power values of the test statistics based on the MML estimators are very close to the corresponding test statistics based on the ML estimators. At the end of the study, a real life example is given to show the implementation of the proposed methodologies.     

退休年龄与养老金支付

退休年龄由各国各地人口的平均寿命以及劳动力供求状况所决定 ,它对养老金的支付有重要影响作用。在人口老龄化日益加剧、劳动力供应日益困难的当今社会 ,不少国家和地区都做出了推迟退休年龄以维持养老基金平衡的政策选择。中国城镇职工退休年龄是几十年前规定的 ,在人口平均寿命不断增长、养老保险制度日益成熟的今天 ,也存在着推迟退休年龄的社会需求和可能条件。文章通过对养老保险制度赡养率、被动率的分析 ,提出了按男女有别、分步到位的原则推迟职工退休年龄的政策建议 ,文章还就一些地区大批办理职工提前退休的做法对养老金支付造成的压力进行了分析     

Determinanten der Sportaktivität und der Sportart im Lebenslauf

This paper investigates the impact of social class, occupational and family life-course, relocation, age, generation and gender on exercise. Longitudinal, life course-oriented analysis enables identification of the (often diverse) conditions for (re-)uptake and discontinuation of exercise. The paper takes a detailed look at different types of exercise, enabling exploration of the various motivating influences and barriers involved. The database is a retrospective representative survey of the 50 to 70 year old population of Baden-Württemberg, Germany. The results show that higher educational qualifications are associated with higher levels of exercise, whereas manual labor and – among women – childcare are associated with lower levels of exercise. With respect to the impact of education, cultural rather than economic capital seems to be the determining influence. Other factors – (un-)employment, partnership, relocation, age and cohort – tend to have more complex effects on exercise. Though being a member of the workforce reduces the likelihood of starting to exercise, it also reduces the likelihood of dropping out. Though partnership encourages the dissemination of exercise, initiation of a relationship is also associated with a higher incidence of discontinuation. Relocation prompts both initiation and discontinuation of exercise. Surprisingly, up to the over-50 age group, increasing age is associated with an increased prevalence of physical activity, especially among women. The results of analysis of social differences in terms of types of physical activity can be used in health programs to provide scientifically founded recommendations for the promotion of specific types of physical activity for lower educational groups, seniors, and other social groups whose lifestyle tends to be inactive.     

The power(lessness) of Czechoslovak Jews during the Second World War

The article evaluates the perceptions of Jewish power among the Czechoslovak exiles in Britain during the Second World War. The analysis documents the apparent persistence of prejudices against the Jewish minority among the Czechoslovak non-Jewish authorities that eventually formed the government-in-exile (1940–5), under the presidency of Edvard Bene? (1884–1948). The Czechoslovak exiles believed that the Jewish minority, in particular the Jewish nationalists (Zionists), had vehement supporters within Jewish circles in Western countries. Furthermore, they believed that the Jewish press played a significant role in the formation of public opinion in Britain and especially in the United States. In the early 1940s, the government-in-exile embarked on a policy of national homogenisation of post-war Czechoslovakia and was anxious to give concessions to the political representatives of the ethnic minority groups in exile, in particular the Germans, Hungarians and Jews. Yet the concerns about Jewish influence in liberal democracies granted several political concessions to the Jewish minority, in particular the appointment of a Zionist representative, Arno?t Frischer (1887–1954), to the exile parliament. This notwithstanding, by analysing the internal situation among the Czechoslovak Jewish groups in London, the article documents the internal weakness and disputes among the Jewish groups which gradually revealed the utter powerlessness of the Jewish exiles during their negotiations with the Czechoslovak authorities. The Jewish groups (the assimilationists, Orthodox and secular nationalists) were divided by mutual as well as internal disputes which were not concealed from outside observers and were utilised by the exile government. What emerges from the analysis is an impression of quarrelling groups that could not agree on any of the fundamental issues and whose only power was the ability to court the support of Western Jewish groups, which were perceived by the non-Jewish exiles as influential actors in US and British society.     

“镖不喊沧”地方象征符号与乡村社会秩序

"镖不喊沧"是地方象征符号的集中体现,武林强人借助该符号所赋予的民间权威,实现了对乡村秩序的控制。随着现代化时代的到来,"镖不喊沧"的民间符号逐步转型、演变成国家在场的现代象征符号——"沧州武术之乡"。     

Exact distribution of a modified Behrens–Fisher statistic

The exact distribution of a modified Behrens–Fisher statistic is derived. The distribution function is mostly elementary and is simpler than the exact distribution derived by Nel et al. Its practical use (including computationalefficiency and computational convenience) is discussed.     

Mesurer les coǔts de licenciement: de l'intérět des méthodes directes

Les coǔts de licenciement, ainsi que l'appareil législatif et réglementaire régissant les relations professionnelles, sont souvent blǎmés pour les mauvaises performances du marché du travail. Toutefois, les études théoriques et économétriques sur l'impact économique de ces coǔts ne sont pas concluantes. Par le passé, on s'est surtout intéressé aux hypothèses fonctionnelles et à l'incidence des divers paramètres, mais on a très peu analysé la qualité et la précision des méthodes de mesure de ces coǔts, dont dépendent pourtant la plupart des résultats en cette matière. L'auteur examine les méthodes de mesure directes et indirectes couramment utilisées en ce domaine, et soutient qu'il est essentiel d'employer les méthodes quantitatives directes, rarement utilisées par les chercheurs, pour compléter les méthodes de mesure indirectes auxquelles on a généralement recours. Ce point est illustré par les résultats d'un sondage expérimental récemment mené en Australie.     

直接沉淀法制备纳米氢氧化镁粉体的研究

以氯化镁和氨水为原料,加入聚乙二醇(PEG)作为分散剂,利用直接沉淀法合成了纳米级、薄片状、粒度均匀且分散性好的氢氧化镁.考察了反应温度、反应时间、M gC l2浓度、NH3.H2O浓度、反应物配比对氢氧化镁颗粒粒径的影响,并采用透射电镜(TEM)、X射线衍射(XRD)对颗粒结构进行表征.     

Test inversion bootstrap confidence intervals

In this paper we explore the theoretical and practical implications of using bootstrap test inversion to construct confidence intervals. In the presence of nuisance parameters, we show that the coverage error of such intervals is O ( n ^−1/2) which may be reduced to O ( n ⁻¹) if a Studentized statistic is used. We present three simulation studies and compare the performance of test inversion methods with established methods on the problem of estimating a confidence interval for the dose–response parameter in models of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors data.