The Transport System and Society’s Metabolism in the UK

This paper analyses the interrelation between the transport system and measures of resource consumption such as material and energy consumption over a 60-year period (1937–1997) in the UK. Non-motorized transport and time consumption for mobility are estimated in addition to conventional measures of transport. During the period analyzed, the UK population grew by 20% while transport of goods and persons increased more than threefold and material and energy consumption almost doubled. The transport intensity of domestic material input (DMI) doubled to 300 ton-kilometers (tkm) per ton of DMI while the transport intensity of domestic energy consumption (DEC) doubled to 20 tkm per gigajoule (GJ) of DEC. Thus, while the material and energy intensity of GDP declined significantly, a well-established trend in many advanced countries, the transport intensity of materials and energy consumption rose. These findings suggest a close link between transport, economic development, and long-term structural transformations. In the case of personal transport, a rebound effect was also observed: whereas the average speed of transport has greatly increased, the average number of hours per day devoted to personal transport has not declined.     

The Impact of the Therapist's Curiosity on the Treatment Process of Children and Adolescents

Therapists bring their own initiative, interest, and wonder—their professional curiosity—into treatment sessions. Some children and adolescents pull away in reaction to this curiosity, bristling or withdrawing, if only for a moment. This can happen abruptly, even in response to the first hello, but most often it occurs subtly, over the course of treatment. These children and adolescents may be replaying the ruptures in relationships they experienced when they have expressed their own initiative and curiosity to important others in their lives. Therapists need to utilize opportunities to understand the dynamics, explore where the original ruptures may have occurred, and bring the experience into therapeutic focus. Case vignettes illustrate these dynamics.     

Qualitätsmanagement: Entwicklung,Problemfelder und ein integrativer Lösungsvorschlag

Quality Management: History, problems and an integrative modelStarting with a critical examination of the history and the commonly known concepts and systems of Quality Management, the paper discusses a broader understanding of quality in a genuinely managerial perspective. This is shown by generating and applying five basic dimensions of the quality concept. An integrative concept of Quality Management is presented.     

浅谈科技示范户在农技推广体系中的作用——全椒县发展科技示范户的实践与思考

在科学技术高速发展的今天,必须推进农业科学技术的转化与应用。全椒县建立了以科技示范户为辐射点的农技推广新路子,使科技示范户成为科技引进的尖兵、科技推广的桥梁、科技示范的骨干、科技试验的助手、科技致富的样楹;成为农技推广体系中的重要组成部分。同时本文也探讨了科技示范户的形成与发展、教育与培训、管理与扶持等问题,籍以引起在实际操作中的思考。     

Does trust increase willingness to pay higher taxes to help the needy?

The article studies the causal effect of trust on the willingness to pay higher taxes to help the needy in a sample of 29 countries of Eastern and Southern Europe, and the former Soviet Union and Mongolia. It is hypothesized that interpersonal trust leads to a greater willingness to pay taxes to help the needy since (i) trust increases the likelihood of helping strangers; (ii) trust fosters solidarity and cooperation when working to solve common problems in society; and (iii) trust reduces suspicion with respect to the perceived misuse of redistributed money. Three key findings are that the more people trust each other, the more they are ready to support the welfare state; the effect of trust on welfare state support holds even in a contextual environment characterized by rather lower levels of trust and relatively underdeveloped systems of redistribution; and higher individual‐level trust fosters tax morale and helps deter tax evasion.     

Bootstrap confidence regions computed from autoregressions of arbitrary order

Given a linear time series, e.g. an autoregression of infinite order, we may construct a finite order approximation and use that as the basis for confidence regions. The sieve or autoregressive bootstrap, as this method is often called, is generally seen as a competitor with the better-understood block bootstrap approach. However, in the present paper we argue that, for linear time series, the sieve bootstrap has significantly better performance than blocking methods and offers a wider range of opportunities. In particular, since it does not corrupt second-order properties then it may be used in a double-bootstrap form, with the second bootstrap application being employed to calibrate a basic percentile method confidence interval. This approach confers second-order accuracy without the need to estimate variance. That offers substantial benefits, since variances of statistics based on time series can be difficult to estimate reliably, and—partly because of the relatively small amount of information contained in a dependent process—are notorious for causing problems when used to Studentize. Other advantages of the sieve bootstrap include considerably greater robustness against variations in the choice of the tuning parameter, here equal to the autoregressive order, and the fact that, in contradistinction to the case of the block bootstrap, the percentile t version of the sieve bootstrap may be based on the 'raw' estimator of standard error. In the process of establishing these properties we show that the sieve bootstrap is second order correct.     

Estimation of scale parameters in mixture distributions

Simultaneous estimation of scale parameters is considered in mixture distributions under squared-error loss. A general class of estimators is obtained which dominates the componentwise best multiple estimators and the moment estimators. As special cases, improved estimators are obtained for the multivariate t-distribution and the p-variate Lomax distribution.     

An adaptive bayebsian solution to the control peoble1 for linear control systems

In this paper, a Bayesian procedure to solve the control problem in Linear Control Systems , when the precision Matrices of the obstsrvaiional and systems errors are unknown, is proposed. Prior information on those matrices is required, A numerical example illustrates the procedure applied to models Which contain bivariate observations and bivariate state vectors.     

Conditional interval estimation of the mean following rejection of a two sided test

The effect of rejecting a two-sided preliminary test of significance for the mean of a normal distribution upon subsequent interval estimation of the mean is examined. For the case where the variance is known, conditional confidence intervals may be shorter than unconditional intervals, in contrast to the one-sided preliminary test case examined by Meeks and D’Agostino (1983, The American Statistician, 7, 134-136) . For the case where the variance is unknown and must be estimated by the sample variance, it is shown that customary intervals do not offer uniformly greater or lesser coverage than the nominal level.     

制约当前高职教育质量提高的因素分析及对策

从招生规模扩大、办学经费不足、师资队伍建设滞后、实践教学薄弱、缺乏创新性质量监控与评价体系和人才培养与社会需求不相适应6个方面，分析了制约当前高职教育教学质量提高的因素，并提出了具体的解决对策。