同类异质产品市场博弈Nash均衡最优策略模型

本文按照Nash均衡解的要求,建立同类异质产品市场用户需求分布及效用结构模型,导出不同定位的企业所实施竞争策略的若干最优条件,通过计算不同策略设计下产品相应的临界功能效用值,参与竞争的企业可找到适合于市场需求的最优决策。     

非对称情况下的多物品拍卖

本文讨论当投标人之间存在不同的预算约束时两物品的序贯增价拍卖,对于物品之间不同的关系(互补、替代或者不相干的关系),物品价值大小的不同及与预算大小之间的关系,在一个简单的完全信息模型下,我们分不同情况讨论投标人的均衡出价策略,并发现对卖方来说,先拍卖价值高的物品是弱占优的策略。     

Forest Fire Risk Management and Public Participation in Changing Socioenvironmental Conditions: A Case Study in a Mediterranean Region

Under current conditions of accelerated socioenvironmental change in the Mediterranean forested landscapes, fire is one of the most critical and difficult risks to tackle within the region. This article summarizes the lessons learned from a project based on the participatory integration of qualitative local stakeholders' knowledge with expert GIS fire simulations carried out in the County of El Bages, Catalonia, Spain. First, in this article, a theoretical model--the forest fire circle--is presented in order to explain the reasons for the rise in the damage and frequency of forest fires in this Mediterranean area. Second, it describes the methodology developed and the stages followed during the project. Results show that: (1) the advocacy of old forest reactive management paradigm assumptions and practices based on uncontrolled forest succession can put vast wooded areas of the Mediterranean basin at critical risk; and (2) forest fire management approaches that ignore the crucial role of long-term prevention and local capacity building strategies have failed. In the final section, the content and the specific dimensions of the old reactive paradigm that has characterized forest fire risk management in Catalonia are discussed and contrasted with the possibly emerging preventative paradigm.     

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is considered one of the most violent and destructive volcanic activities in the 20th century. Lahar is the Indonesian term for volcanic ash, and lahar flows resulting from the massive amount of volcanic materials deposited on the mountain's slope posed continued post-eruption threats to the surrounding areas, destroying lives, homes, agricultural products, and infrastructures. Risks of lahar flows were identified immediately after the eruption, with scientific data provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other research institutions. However, competing political, economic, and social agendas subordinated the importance of scientific information to policy making. Using systemic risk analysis and management, this article addresses the issues of multiple objectives and the effective integration of scientific techniques into the decision-making process. It provides a modeling framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating policies for managing risk. The major considerations are: (1) applying a holistic approach to risk analysis through hierarchical holographic modeling, (2) applying statistical methods to gain insight into the problem of uncertainty in risk assessment, (3) using multiobjective trade-off analysis to address the issue of multiple decisionmakers and stakeholders in the decision-making process, (4) using the conditional expected value of extreme events to complement and supplement the expected value in quantifying risk, and (5) assessing the impacts of multistage decisions. Numerical examples based on ex post data are formulated to illustrate applications to various problems. The resulting framework from this study can serve as a general baseline model for assessing and managing risks of natural disasters, which the Philippines' lead agency-the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC)-and other related organizations can use for their decision-making processes.     

"五四"新文学运动前二十年文学理论批评文体的演进

文学理论批评文体是文学理论批评形式特征的总和。中国古代文论文体有其鲜明的特色 ,但也有明显的局限性。至近代 ,尤其是五四新文学运动前二十年 ,文学理论批评文体发生了巨大的变化。其变革的方向 ,总的来说是向现代文学理论批评文体演进。具体来看 ,体式向多样化、大容量发展 ;篇章结构趋向完整精致 ;语言文字趋向通俗浅显 ;对西方文体从模仿趋向融会贯通 ;文体的外在形式向规范化发展     

关于社会福利制度的深层次思考

效率和公平是社会福利的两大准则 ,整个人类历史可以说就是一个不断追求效率和公平的历史 ,而其中针对社会弱势群体进行的收入和服务保障更是一个超社会形态的课题 ,是一个关乎人类社会福利的重要问题。针对中国的实际情况 ,本文中所讨论的社会福利制度被限定在“剩余福利模式”上。在对中外社会福利制度的起源及其理论发展进行考察的基础上 ,作者指出 :社会福利的提供应是制度化的政府职责 ,它的实施不仅能有效地保护社会弱势群体 ,还有利于全社会秩序的稳定和经济增长目标的实现 ;在中国目前财政收入相对不足的情况下 ,政府应充分利用社会资源、调动社会力量、推进立法、加紧培育行业组织和非赢利社会组织 ,以达到完善社会福利制度、有效保护社会弱势群体之目的。     

曲线箱梁桥实用设计方法的研究

曲线箱梁桥目前还缺乏比较实用的设计方法．本文对曲线箱梁桥的现有设计方法作了研究，并推荐一种实用设计方法：采用空间梁单元，每个节点取六个自由度；等效梁格的模拟考虑了横向梁格附近有无横隔梁的情况．结果证明，这是一种简便、较精确的设计方法．     

The Determinants of Trust and Credibility in Environmental Risk Communication: An Empirical Study

This study examines a key component of environmental risk communication; trust and credibility. The study was conducted in two parts. In the first part, six hypotheses regarding the perceptions and determinants of trust and credibility were tested against survey data. The hypotheses were supported by the data. The most important hypothesis was that perceptions of trust and credibility are dependent on three factors: perceptions of knowledge and expertise; perceptions of openness and honesty; and perceptions of concern and care. In the second part, models were constructed with perceptions of trust and credibility as the dependent variable. The goal was to examine the data for findings with direct policy implications. One such finding was that defying a negative stereotype is key to improving perceptions of trust and credibility.     

Industry and the environment: a case study of cleaner technologies in selected European countries

The aim of this case study is to discuss the role of technology in addressing environmental problems. The paper tries to scratch beneath the surface of the increasingly frequent ‘quick-fix’ solutions to the present environmental problems, based on such beguiling catchwords as Cleaner Technologies, Best Available Technologies, and Best Available Technologies Not Exceeding Excessive Costs, etc., in an attempt to discover whether there is any substance in them, or whether they are just full of hot air. Recent data from case studies performed by the author in Germany and Finland as well as a postal questionnaire in Denmark are presented. The paper analyses and discusses the roles and responsibilities of designers, industrialists, and government policy-makers. It is argued that existing regulatory regimes, supranational industrial structures, and market mechanisms do not favour the development of cleaner technologies, nor do they promote a reduction in consumption patterns. Evidence from ongoing empirical research in Northwest Europe suggests that industry is far from developing and/or implementing cleaner technologies. The paper closes with a discussion of some of the policy implications involved and some examples of urgently needed further research.     

An exploratory study of manufacturing strategy practices of machinery manufacturing companies in India

This paper presents findings of a survey on manufacturing strategy practices adopted by the Indian machinery manufacturing companies (IMMC). Based on the survey, three companies have been selected for detailed case studies. Their experiences in the manufacturing strategy process are analyzed. Although the companies represented diversity in terms of product type, sales volume, and geographic location, they share several commonalties including use of advanced manufacturing technologies and use of several improvement techniques. The process of strategy formulation varied among the companies in terms of participants, complexity and degree of formalization. Competitive priorities, order winners and critical success factors are also identified for these companies. Based on strategic manufacturing issues, manufacturing competence index and business performance index for the companies has been worked out.