青海藏区回族社会生活变迁调查--以黄南州隆务镇为例

本文在田野调查的基础上,从微观社会学的角度出发,以青海黄南藏族自治州隆务镇回族群体的社会生活变迁为主题,探析了隆务镇回族日常生活、宗教生活、婚姻家庭、族际交流等层面在社会变迁中的不同表现形式及影响因素.着重指出社会互动,强化了藏区回族生活文化的调适性与整合性;社会结构转型与变迁动力促成了藏回民族地域关系的复杂性与多样性;地域利益矛盾、文化差异及政策倾向等因素,在某种程度上限制了民族关系的发展,影响了区域的稳定.     

Model selection using information criteria under a new estimation method: least squares ratio

In this study, we evaluate several forms of both Akaike-type and Information Complexity (ICOMP)-type information criteria, in the context of selecting an optimal subset least squares ratio (LSR) regression model. Our simulation studies are designed to mimic many characteristics present in real data – heavy tails, multicollinearity, redundant variables, and completely unnecessary variables. Our findings are that LSR in conjunction with one of the ICOMP criteria is very good at selecting the true model. Finally, we apply these methods to the familiar body fat data set.     

Choosing Priors for Constrained Analysis of Variance: Methods Based on Training Data

Abstract. This article combines the best of both objective and subjective Bayesian inference in specifying priors for inequality and equality constrained analysis of variance models. Objectivity can be found in the use of training data to specify a prior distribution, subjectivity can be found in restrictions on the prior to formulate models. The aim of this article is to find the best model in a set of models specified using inequality and equality constraints on the model parameters. For the evaluation of the models an encompassing prior approach is used. The advantage of this approach is that only a prior for the unconstrained encompassing model needs to be specified. The priors for all constrained models can be derived from this encompassing prior. Different choices for this encompassing prior will be considered and evaluated.     

Bridge regression: Adaptivity and group selection

In high-dimensional regression problems regularization methods have been a popular choice to address variable selection and multicollinearity. In this paper we study bridge regression that adaptively selects the penalty order from data and produces flexible solutions in various settings. We implement bridge regression based on the local linear and quadratic approximations to circumvent the nonconvex optimization problem. Our numerical study shows that the proposed bridge estimators are a robust choice in various circumstances compared to other penalized regression methods such as the ridge, lasso, and elastic net. In addition, we propose group bridge estimators that select grouped variables and study their asymptotic properties when the number of covariates increases along with the sample size. These estimators are also applied to varying-coefficient models. Numerical examples show superior performances of the proposed group bridge estimators in comparisons with other existing methods.     

Detection of structural breaks in a time-varying heteroskedastic regression model

A Bayesian method for estimating a time-varying regression model subject to the presence of structural breaks is proposed. Heteroskedastic dynamics, via both GARCH and stochastic volatility specifications, and an autoregressive factor, subject to breaks, are added to generalize the standard return prediction model, in order to efficiently estimate and examine the relationship and how it changes over time. A Bayesian computational method is employed to identify the locations of structural breaks, and for estimation and inference, simultaneously accounting for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The proposed methods are illustrated using simulated data. Then, an empirical study of the Taiwan and Hong Kong stock markets, using oil and gas price returns as a state variable, provides strong support for oil prices being an important explanatory variable for stock returns.     

Biosocial Influences on the Family: A Decade Review

The past decade brought a remarkable increase in the number and quality of biosocial studies of family processes. The current review summarizes recent advances in biosocial family research by providing key exemplars of emerging research paradigms. Research in the past decade has substantiated the claim in the previous Decade Review ( Booth, Carver, & Granger, 2000 ) that bidirectional influences between all levels of analysis are paramount. There is an emerging consensus that integrating factors at multiple biological and social levels is highly informative. Because ignoring biological factors often will underestimate mediating or moderating mechanisms, the review provides recommendations for biosocial family research. We also highlight the need for researchers who understand complex family environments to lend their expertise to biosocial studies.     

When Does Race Matter? Race,Sex, and Dating at an Elite University

This paper unites quantitative and qualitative data from the College Social Life Survey (n = 732) to describe and explain patterns of racial homophily in undergraduate sexual/romantic relationships at an elite university, a closed social setting. It expands the literature on interracial romantic unions by comparing homophily in hookups (uncommitted sexual interactions), dates, and long‐term relationships. Although this population embodies many characteristics associated with greater racial mixing (youth, education, status equality, geographical proximity, racial diversity, independence from family), racial homophily is still strongly evident. Variation in levels of homophily among relationship types and among racial groups is explained by differences in desired homophily, social network segregation, and participation in formal race‐based student organizations. Black students are particularly socially isolated.     

论行为财务学的范式创新

行为财务学范式是对标准财务学范式的革命.标准财务学的范式包括"理性人"、"偏好稳定"、"不考虑财务人的情绪对资本市场资产价格的影响"、"有效套利"和"有效市场".行为财务学的范式包括"有限理性"、"偏好不稳定"、"财务人的情绪严重影响资本市场的资产价格"、"有限套利"和"市场并不有效".行为财务学的范式对资本市场的大量异象和财务人偏好非理性心理学实验结果有较合理的理论解释力.并有一定理论的预见力.行为财务学原理已经被大量运用去指导财务人财务管理行为与实践.     

晚清底层社会老人自杀及其生存状态分析

中国传统社会讲求善终,希望有一个好的人生终点;老有所终,也是儒家所提倡的理想境界。然而,在晚清这样一个动荡的年代,部分底层社会的老人,选择了自杀。以中国第一历史档案馆所藏的刑部档案为主要史料,用历史学和社会学方法对晚清底层社会老人的自杀现象进行梳理,可以分析出自杀的原因及类型,并藉此呈现其生存状态。     

关注青少年的日常生活与教育——上海市青少年危险行为现状分析与对策研究

本文试图在深化理论认识的基础上,就上海市青少年危险行为的现状和问题做一番阐述。在此基础上,分析了现阶段青少年危险行为的影响因素,寻找解决这些危险行为的途径,即提出生活技能教育和课外休闲教育的理念,并对进行这两种教育的意义进行探讨。