Extended generalised Pareto models for tail estimation

The most popular approach in extreme value statistics is the modelling of threshold exceedances using the asymptotically motivated generalised Pareto distribution. This approach involves the selection of a high threshold above which the model fits the data well. Sometimes, few observations of a measurement process might be recorded in applications and so selecting a high quantile of the sample as the threshold leads to almost no exceedances. In this paper we propose extensions of the generalised Pareto distribution that incorporate an additional shape parameter while keeping the tail behaviour unaffected. The inclusion of this parameter offers additional structure for the main body of the distribution, improves the stability of the modified scale, tail index and return level estimates to threshold choice and allows a lower threshold to be selected. We illustrate the benefits of the proposed models with a simulation study and two case studies.     

An efficient sequential design of clinical trials

We propose an efficient group sequential monitoring rule for clinical trials. At each interim analysis both efficacy and futility are evaluated through a specified loss structure together with the predicted power. The proposed design is robust to a wide range of priors, and achieves the specified power with a saving of sample size compared to existing adaptive designs. A method is also proposed to obtain a reduced-bias estimator of treatment difference for the proposed design. The new approaches hold great potential for efficiently selecting a more effective treatment in comparative trials. Operating characteristics are evaluated and compared with other group sequential designs in empirical studies. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the method.     

Optimal Information Processing and Bayes's Theorem

In this article statistical inference is viewed as information processing involving input information and output information. After introducing information measures for the input and output information, an information criterion functional is formulated and optimized to obtain an optimal information processing rule (IPR). For the particular information measures and criterion functional adopted, it is shown that Bayes's theorem is the optimal IPR. This optimal IPR is shown to be 100% efficient in the sense that its use leads to the output information being exactly equal to the given input information. Also, the analysis links Bayes's theorem to maximum-entropy considerations.     

On optimising the estimation of high quantiles of a probability distribution

One of the major aims of one-dimensional extreme-value theory is to estimate quantiles outside the sample or at the boundary of the sample. The underlying idea of any method to do this is to estimate a quantile well inside the sample but near the boundary and then to shift it somehow to the right place. The choice of this “anchor quantile” plays a major role in the accuracy of the method. We present a bootstrap method to achieve the optimal choice of sample fraction in the estimation of either high quantile or endpoint estimation which extends earlier results by Hall and Weissman (1997) in the case of high quantile estimation. We give detailed results for the estimators used by Dekkers et al. (1989). An alternative way of attacking problems like this one is given in a paper by Drees and Kaufmann (1998).     

R–estimation of normed bivariate density functions

Normed bivariate density funtions were introduced by HOEFFDING (1940/41). In the present paper estimators for normed bivariate ranks and on a FOURIER series expansion in LEGENDRE polynomials. The estimation of normed bivarate density functions under positive dependence is also described     

CUSUM Hypothesis Tests and Alternative Response Probabilities for Finite Poisson Trials

This article develops a new cumulative sum statistic to identify aberrant behavior in a sequentially administered multiple-choice standardized examination. The examination responses can be described as finite Poisson trials, and the statistic can be used for other applications which fit this framework. The standardized examination setting uses a maximum likelihood estimate of examinee ability and an item response theory model. Aberrant and non aberrant probabilities are computed by an odds ratio analogous to risk adjusted CUSUM schemes. The significance level of a hypothesis test, where the null hypothesis is non-aberrant examinee behavior, is computed with Markov chains. A smoothing process is used to spread probabilities across the Markov states. The practicality of the approach to detect aberrant examinee behavior is demonstrated with results from both simulated and empirical data.     

Analyzing Supersaturated Designs by Means of an Information Based Criterion

The cost and time consumption of many industrial experimentations can be reduced using the class of supersaturated designs since this can be used for screening out the important factors from a large set of potentially active variables. A supersaturated design is a design for which there are fewer runs than effects to be estimated. Although there exists a wide study of construction methods for supersaturated designs, their analysis methods are yet in an early research stage. In this article, we propose a method for analyzing data using a correlation-based measure, named as symmetrical uncertainty. This method combines measures from the information theory field and is used as the main idea of variable selection algorithms developed in data mining. In this work, the symmetrical uncertainty is used from another viewpoint in order to determine more directly the important factors. The specific method enables us to use supersaturated designs for analyzing data of generalized linear models for a Bernoulli response. We evaluate our method by using some of the existing supersaturated designs, obtained according to methods proposed by Tang and Wu (1997 Tang , B. , Wu , C. F. J. (1997). A method for constructing supersaturated designs and its E(s ²)-optimality. Canadian Journal of Statistics 25:191–201.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) as well as by Koukouvinos et al. (2008 Koukouvinos , C. , Mylona , K. , Simos , D. E. ( 2008 ). E(s ²)-optimal and minimax-optimal cyclic supersaturated designs via multi-objective simulated annealing . Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 138 : 1639 – 1646 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The comparison is performed by some simulating experiments and the Type I and Type II error rates are calculated. Additionally, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves methodology is applied as an additional statistical tool for performance evaluation.     

Multivariate Measures of Well-Being and an Analysis of Inequality in the Michigan Data

We demonstrate a multidimensional approach for combining several indicators of well-being, including the traditional money-income indicators. This methodology avoids the difficult and much criticized task of computing imputed incomes for such indicators as net worth and schooling. Inequality in the proposed composite measures is computed using relative inequality indexes that permit simple analysis of both the contribution of each welfare indicator (and its factor components) and within and between components of total inequality when the population is grouped by income levels, age, gender, or any other criteria. The analysis is performed on U.S. data using the Michigan Survey of Income Dynamics.     

Lower and Upper Bounds for Rectangular Probabilities

This article presents some results showing how rectangular probabilities can be studied using copula theory. These results lead us to develop new lower and upper bounds for rectangular probabilities which can be computed efficiently. The new bounds are compared with the ones obtained from the generalized Fréchet–Hoeffding bounds and Bonferroni-type inequalities.     

Some Applications of Order Statistics to Multivariate Analysis II

ABSTRACT

Harter (1979) summarized applications of order statistics to multivariate analysis up through 1949. The present paper covers the period 1950–1959. References in the two papers were selected from the first and second volumes, respectively, of the author's chronological annotated bibliography on order statistics [Harter (1978, 1983)]. Tintner (1950a) established formal relations between four special types of multivariate analysis: (1) canonical correlation, (2) principal components, (3) weighted regression, and (4) discriminant analysis, all of which depend on ordered roots of determinantal equations. During the decade 1950–1959, numerous authors contributed to distribution theory and/or computational methods for ordered roots and their applications to multivariate analysis. Test criteria for (i) multivariate analysis of variance, (ii) comparison of variance–covariance matrices, and (iii) multiple independence of groups of variates when the parent population is multivariate normal were usually derived from the likelihood ratio principle until S. N. Roy (1953) formulated the union–intersection principles on which Roy & Bose (1953) based their simultaneous test and confidence procedure. Roy & Bargmann (1958) used an alternative procedure, called the step–down procedure, in deriving a test for problem (iii), and J. Roy (1958) applied the step–down procedure to problem (i) and (ii), Various authors developed and applied distribution theory for several multivariate distributions. Advances were also made on multivariate tolerance regions [Fraser & Wormleighton (1951), Fraser (1951, 1953), Fraser & Guttman (1956), Kemperman (1956), and Somerville (1958)], a criterion for rejection of multivariate outliers [Kudô (1957)], and linear estimators, from censored samples, of parameters of multivariate normal populations [Watterson (1958, 1959)]. Textbooks on multivariate analysis were published by Kendall (1957) and Anderson (1958), as well as a monograph by Roy (1957) and a book of tables by Pillai (1957).