Trend inflation,the labor market wedge,and the non-vertical Phillips curve

Recent developments in macroeconomics resurrect the view that welfare costs of inflation arise because the latter acts as a tax on money balances. Empirical contributions show that wage re-negotiations take place while expiring contracts are still in place. Bringing these seemingly unrelated aspects together in a stylized general equilibrium model, we find a disciplining effect of a positive inflation target on the wage markup and identify a long-term trade-off between inflation and output. This has important policy implications, ranging from the opportunity of revising the target in response to shocks, to the possibility of exploiting inflation as a tool to increase tax revenues via its employment-enhancing effect.     

The Clash of Voices: Community-based Targeting of Safety-net Interventions in Malawi

Using the principle of community targeting, the 2003 Winter Targeted Input Programme was designed to extend free inputs to about 400,000 households in rural Malawi on the basis of access to dambo, and poverty status. The tendency for most communities was, however, to modify the stipulated criteria on the basis of their perceptions and interpretations of need, entitlement and equity. Strikingly, even though the resulting criteria often reflected priorities conflicting with the officially prescribed guidelines, they were nevertheless not necessarily motivated by fraudulent intentions, though there were some isolated cases of ill‐intention. This article therefore advocates at least the incorporation of views from below in the design of interventions of this nature in order to ensure that they achieve the overall desired strategic impact.     

我国保险企业目标市场战略选择

保险企业目标市场战略选择是保险企业搞好营销的前提和基础。该文从保险市场细分与目标市场选择及定位入手 ,分析和研究了保险企业可采用的战略应包括建立市场导向稳定而灵活的组织结构、有力且有弹性的网络 ,执行有效的行销系统等手段 ,从而使其更好地占有保险市场 ,获得竞争优势。     

精准扶贫主体的行动逻辑

扶贫资源在从上到下的传递过程中极易出现“瞄不准”和“瞄不久”现象:村民在扶贫实践中处于被动接受地位,导致扶贫资源在传递过程中层层偏离;县乡政府追求自身政绩和经济效益最大化,依托资源优势影响扶贫信息及资源传递;村干部为完善乡村治理利用亲缘关系影响贫困户识别结果。因此,探索长效脱贫机制激发贫困者的内生发展能力;优化贫困者在资源分配过程中位置;转变基层政府在扶贫实践中所扮演的角色,真正成为扶贫实践工作中的协作者;健全多元扶贫监督机制及扶贫绩效评价体系成为了新时期推进精准扶贫工作亟待解决的问题。     

Assessment of China’s Poor County Program

ABSTRACT

China made remarkable progress in rural poverty alleviation. A major policy instrument is the County Level Poverty Alleviation Program, which has vast policy support but is also criticized for targeting errors, misuse of funds, and making poverty both shameful and attractive. Whether this program, or the country’s economic growth in general, is the main force in poverty reduction is the question addressed in this article, analyzing data for the 592 poor counties. The response to the economic growth–policy alleviation conundrum is that a push for social wellbeing and empowerment is needed together with economic growth to achieve major poverty improvements.     

“世界新剧”《新茶花》与走向现代的读图文学

晚清画报文学的出现标志着中国读图文学由传统走向现代,其中以《图画日报》刊载之《新茶花》为代表的晚清画报文学作品体现了近代转型期中国读图文学的基本特征,其一是画报的大众定位和报刊化写作带来了叙事的时事化和情节化;其二是晚清的读图风尚和画报的图像旨趣推动了图像叙事的强化与文图关系的突破,以及连环故事图画基本体式的奠定;其三是画报关于西方意象的表征所再现的西风东渐中的晚清中国对西方世界的想象、接受以及随之而来的文化冲击和观念变革。     

中国现行货币政策框架有效性分析

基于货币政策框架理论,设定了货币目标框架的模型,在此基础上,分析了中国现行货币目标框架的有效性并探讨了中国货币政策框架有效性下降的原因.最后提出了中国应择机渐进导入通货膨胀目标框架的政策建议.     

基于改进GMDH的目标客户选择模型研究

近年来,目标客户选择建模成为客户关系管理领域的研究热点。为了解决用于目标客户选择建模的训练样本类别分布高度不平衡的问题,本文首先提出了混合抽样方法。进一步地,将数据分组处理(GMDH)神经元网络引入到客户特征选择中,提出新的特征选择算法Log-GMDH。该算法分别从传递函数的选择和新的外准则的构建两个方面对传统GMDH网络模型进行了改进。最后,将提出的混合抽样、Log-GMDH和Logistic回归分类算法相结合,构建目标客户选择模型LogGMDH-Logistic。在CoIL2000预测竞赛中某汽车保险公司的目标客户选择数据集上进行实证分析,结果表明,LogGMDH-Logistic模型不仅在性能上优于已有的一些目标客户选择模型,而且具有很好的可解释性。     

试论通货膨胀目标制

文章首先阐述了通货膨胀目标制的内涵,然后分析了实行通货膨胀目标制的必要条件,最后认为我国目前仍然不具备这些条件,不宜实行通货膨胀目标制。     

The impact of child benefits on single mother poverty: Exploring the role of targeting in 15 European countries

Single mothers are vulnerable to living in poverty. The question of how to safeguard the economic status of single mothers in a context of increasing dual earnership is a crucial one. In the present study we addressed this issue by investigating the impact of child benefits on the poverty risk of single mothers in 15 European countries. We focused in particular on the design of child benefits and investigated whether targeting towards single mothers was associated with better poverty reduction. In doing so, we combined information on statutory child benefit entitlement with an empirical analysis of poverty reduction using survey data. We found that: (i) both spending effort and targeting are important to explain the effectiveness of child benefits in reducing single mother poverty; (ii) targeting is related to higher levels of poverty reduction independent of spending effort; yet (iii) it matters how targeting is done.