我国城市休闲化发展质量的评价研究

城市休闲化是当代城市发展中的一个新课题。本文结合我国城市休闲化发展的实际状况,通过构建由公共基础、消费能力、产业能力和特色资源等4方面指标组成的城市休闲化质量测评体系,对我国27个省会城市、4个直辖市和5个计划单列市的发展质量进行比较全面和客观的质量测度与数据分析。研究表明,我国城市休闲化质量在整体上处于较低的发展程度。     

“营改增”政策试点的市场初步评估

会计市场咨询表明,＂营改增＂政策是一个相当积极的信号,对于上海行业细分和服务外包的发展、尤其是总部经济的发展有重大的推动作用。但从政策实施的实际效果看：首先受益的是制造业服务业分离企业,部分服务企业实际税负尚未降低;部分中资企业对于政策的了解较为局限,不懂得如何从＂营改增＂中获益;没有完整会计账册的小微企业无法享受增值税抵扣带来的税负减轻,反而由此在同业竞争中与大中企业相比丧失了部分议价竞争能力。针对上述问题,应采取相应的对策措施逐步加以解决。     

The Use of Simulation to Reduce the Domain of “Black Swans” with Application to Hurricane Impacts to Power Systems

Recently, the concept of black swans has gained increased attention in the fields of risk assessment and risk management. Different types of black swans have been suggested, distinguishing between unknown unknowns (nothing in the past can convincingly point to its occurrence), unknown knowns (known to some, but not to relevant analysts), or known knowns where the probability of occurrence is judged as negligible. Traditional risk assessments have been questioned, as their standard probabilistic methods may not be capable of predicting or even identifying these rare and extreme events, thus creating a source of possible black swans. In this article, we show how a simulation model can be used to identify previously unknown potentially extreme events that if not identified and treated could occur as black swans. We show that by manipulating a verified and validated model used to predict the impacts of hazards on a system of interest, we can identify hazard conditions not previously experienced that could lead to impacts much larger than any previous level of impact. This makes these potential black swan events known and allows risk managers to more fully consider them. We demonstrate this method using a model developed to evaluate the effect of hurricanes on energy systems in the United States; we identify hurricanes with potentially extreme impacts, storms well beyond what the historic record suggests is possible in terms of impacts.     

Risk Assessment of Human Listeriosis from Semisoft Cheeses Made from Raw Sheep's Milk in Lazio and Tuscany (Italy)

Semisoft cheese made from raw sheep's milk is traditionally and economically important in southern Europe. However, raw milk cheese is also a known vehicle of human listeriosis and contamination of sheep cheese with Listeria monocytogenes has been reported. In the present study, we have developed and applied a quantitative risk assessment model, based on available evidence and challenge testing, to estimate risk of invasive listeriosis due to consumption of an artisanal sheep cheese made with raw milk collected from a single flock in central Italy. In the model, contamination of milk may originate from the farm environment or from mastitic animals, with potential growth of the pathogen in bulk milk and during cheese ripening. Based on the 48‐day challenge test of a local semisoft raw sheep's milk cheese we found limited growth only during the initial phase of ripening (24 hours) and no growth or limited decline during the following ripening period. In our simulation, in the baseline scenario, 2.2% of cheese servings are estimated to have at least 1 colony forming unit (CFU) per gram. Of these, 15.1% would be above the current E.U. limit of 100 CFU/g (5.2% would exceed 1,000 CFU/g). Risk of invasive listeriosis per random serving is estimated in the 10^?12 range (mean) for healthy adults, and in the 10^?10 range (mean) for vulnerable populations. When small flocks (10–36 animals) are combined with the presence of a sheep with undetected subclinical mastitis, risk of listeriosis increases and such flocks may represent a public health risk.     

战略环评与都市圈建设

都市圈的建设越是火热,越需要冷静的思考。目前都市圈建设面临的重要问题是环境保护,战略环评的缺位造成的损失难以在短时间内克服,只进行建设项目的环境影响评价是不够的,需要正确认识并切实推行战略环评。     

Racial/ethnic and socio‐economic biases in child maltreatment severity assessment in Spanish child protection services caseworkers

Evidence from several countries has shown the over‐representation of racial/ethnic minority groups in child protection services (CPS). The objective of the present study was to explore whether racial/ethnic and socio‐economic biases influence Spanish CPS caseworkers' judgements of the severity of child maltreatment. Moreover, the study attempted to explore the influence on these judgements of the use of structured instruments and professional experience. Two case vignettes of child maltreatment were presented to 405 CPS caseworkers and 169 students of social work and psychology. Family ethnic origin and income were manipulated in the vignettes. The findings showed no statistical evidence of biases related to family ethnic origin or socio‐economic status (SES) in Spanish CPS caseworkers' judgements of maltreatment severity. Biases related to family SES were found for students for the vignettes of physical abuse. CPS caseworkers and students who did not use a structured instrument to assess maltreatment severity tended to underestimate the severity for the vignettes of parental incapacity to control child/adolescent behaviour and to overestimate it for the vignettes of physical abuse. CPS caseworkers who used a structured instrument showed higher percentages of accuracy and inter‐rater agreement, supporting the relevance of structured tools in reducing potential caseworkers' biases.     

Family engagement within the context of assessment in child protection practice: The case of Estonia

Engagement in the context of child protection is of significant international interest, as the participation of family is a central notion in child and family social work. Drawing on in‐depth, semistructured interviews with a sample of 26 child protection workers in 1 region in Estonia, this article reports the findings of the participants' perspectives on family engagement in the context of child protection assessment. Child protection workers perceive the engagement related to 3 aspects: first, it is associated to the acts of the worker; second, it is associated to parental part of actions—depending on parents themselves; and third, engagement was seen as “doing together” with the family, referring to partnership. The aim of the engagement was mainly considered in the terms of empowerment—empowering family to cope on their own and to take charge of their lives. The negative image of child protection was recognised as one of the main barriers to the family engagement. Understanding the family and their situation was seen as the basis for a trusting relationship, being the most crucial factor to promoting family engagement.     

An empirical assessment of writing and research proficiency in HBCU social work students

ABSTRACT

Lack of proficiency in writing and research among social work students has increasingly concerned social work educators and practitioners. Given the significance of written communication with clients and emphasis on evidence-based practice in the field of social work, it is critical to assess students’ competence in both writing and research. However, deficit-based approaches to assessing writing and research competence have disadvantaged students at historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs). This pilot study aims to assess writing and research proficiency of HBCU master’s of social work (MSW) students through empirical analysis of their capstone papers and surveys from educators to provide implications for developing a writing and research manual for social work programs at HBCUs. Ten capstone papers were randomly selected and qualitatively analyzed; nine faculty and one field supervisor completed the survey, and their respondents were analyzed using cross-case analysis. Analyses of the capstone papers identified two themes for writing and research domains, respectively: (1) weakness in developing statements and lack of knowledge of writing style and (2) plagiarism and lack of understanding of research structure. Moreover, analyses of the surveys revealed four themes regarding assessment of writing and research skills among students struggling with basic writing mechanics, indicating that HBCU MSW students may have potential and capacity for learning, as evidenced by their ideas and critical thinking skills. These findings suggest both teaching- and research-oriented programs could employ the proposed writing and research assessment manual, as well as a writing and research lab/center for improving writing and research skills among their students.     

Developing social work students’ professional identity: the role of England’s Professional Capabilities Framework

ABSTRACT

Developing professional identity is a key aim of social work education. This paper argues that the Professional Capabilities Framework (PCF) – a holistic, capability approach to student assessment used in England’s social work education programmes – is ideally placed to promote the development of students’ professional identities. The paper discusses two research studies, each of which was stimulated by significant policy changes in England’s social work profession. The author draws out the implications of both studies for supporting social work students to develop their professional identities. It is concluded that the PCF is valued by practice educators as an assessment and teaching tool, while acknowledging that its future is uncertain due to the lack of continuity impacting on England’s social work profession. This paper is equally of relevance for social work educators outside the UK who may be developing and evaluating their assessment approaches and also for those experiencing the impact of rapid policy changes in their own countries.     

Online Poker Tilt Scale (OPTS): creation and validation of a tilt assessment in a French population

Tilt in poker implies a deviation from an individual’s usual playing style, at a strategic, emotional and behavioural level. It is a specific characteristic of poker, which can affect all kinds of players with varying degrees of frequency. In addition, tilt could be a transitional form of pathological gambling behaviour and a gateway to addiction. The main objective of this research is therefore the design and validation of a measuring scale for tilt episode frequency in an online poker gamblers’ group. Twenty-one items based on the literature and interviews with 10 poker players were created. An online self-administered questionnaire was completed by 263 poker players to validate this scale. The mean age of the sample was 26.7 (SD = 4.45). The Online Poker Tilt Scale (OPTS) consists of 17 items and is the first validated tool for measuring the frequency of tilt episodes associated with online poker. It is composed of two factors: ‘emotional and behavioural tilt’ and ‘cognitive tilt’. Tilt seems to be an essential part of understanding online poker behaviour. This tool will enable researchers studying online poker addiction to perform research on the mechanisms and processes that lead to tilt and its consequences.