Decomposing the predictive performance of the moving average trading rule of technical analysis: the contribution of linear and non-linear dependencies in stock returns

The main purpose of this work is to decompose the predictive performance of the moving average (MA) trading rule and find out the portion that could be attributed to the possible exploitation of linear and non-linear dependencies in stock returns. Data from the General Index of the Athens Stock Exchange, from the Standard and Poor-500 Index of the New York Stock Exchange and from the Austrian Traded Index of the Vienna Stock Exchange are filtered by linear filters so as the resulting simulated ‘returns’ exhibit no serial correlation. Applying MA trading rules to both the original and the simulated indices and using a new statistical testing procedure that takes into account the sensitivity of the performance of the trading rule as a function of the length of the MA it is found that the predictive performance of the trading rule is clearly weakened when applied to the simulated indices indicating that a substantial part of the rule's predictive performance is due to the exploitation of linear dependencies in stock returns. This weakening is uneven; in general the shorter the MA length the more pronounced the attenuation.     

A Corrected Plug-in Method for Quantile Interval Construction Through a Transformed Regression

We propose a corrected plug-in method for constructing confidence intervals of the conditional quantiles of an original response variable through a transformed regression with heteroscedastic errors. The interval is easy to compute. Factors affecting the magnitude of the correction are examined analytically through the special case of Box–Cox regression. Monte Carlo simulations show that the new method works well in general and is superior over the commonly used delta method and the quantile regression method. An empirical application is presented.     

多媒体崇拜症：成因及对策

多媒体教学过程中出现了一系列的问题,这些问题从总体上可冠之为＂多媒体崇拜症＂。这种症状的产生成因复杂。其中既有特定时代背景下某些社会思潮的影响,如＂技术决定论＂的影响和技术使用上功利主义态度的影响;也有施教者和管理者素质上的不足,尤其是精神上的懒惰;更与当前大学的行政化办学体制有某种内在的关联。要克服这种症状,目前可做的工作重点是端正对多媒体使用的看法,提高多媒体使用的技术水平,并且在教学评价上要注重平衡。     

关于企业文化创新之于企业可持续发展重要性的思考

企业的第一竞争力是企业文化。从增强企业相关竞争力角度，阐述了企业文化对于企业可持续发展的重要性，并针对具体问题提出了有针对性的解决对策。     

地方政府文化管理职能与机构改革模式比较

我国以职能和机构整合为核心的地方政府文化管理体制改革已经由试点改革进入到全面推行阶段。本文主要通过结合典型调查法与比较研究法，对典型地方政府改革方案进行分析研究，探求在文化领域进行政府管理职能定位与组织设置改革的相关影响因素。调研结果表明，这些地方政府的改革实施方案存在较大差异，大致可以归纳为六种模式。根据各自职能与机构整合方式的不同，这些改革方案共同构成改革模式类型连续体，不同地方政府改革方案在这一连续体所占的具体位置由许多重要因素所决定。     

推进区域自主创新联盟发展研究——基于湖南十四个市州的调研分析

通过对湖南区域创新能力现状、湖南区域产业发展现状进行分析,对湖南区域技术创新联盟的组建情况进行调查统计后其认为,湖南区域自主创新联盟发展应在战略性新兴产业和区域主导产业内重点推进。在战略性新兴产业内,应该在高端工程机械装备、轨道交通装备等领域内重点推进。各市州也应该根据各自主导产业或优势产业情况,在相应的领域内重点推进。     

迪斯尼的制胜之道

迪斯尼公司的全称为The Walt Disney Company,简称迪斯尼,取其名自创始人沃尔特.迪斯尼,总部设在美国的伯班克,主要业务包括娱乐节目制作、主题公园、玩具、图书、电子游戏和传媒网络,并以家喻户晓的米老鼠、唐老鸭等卡通明星人物和迪斯尼主题公园驰名世界。迪斯尼以创造性思维为公司的核心价值理念,以创新、质量、乐观、共享和尊重提升自己的市场核心竞争力,以精确定位和广泛的品牌延伸构建完整的产业链,以充分开发品牌价值和整合集团资源打造全球娱乐王国。因此,迪斯尼被誉为艺术产业化、大众化的先驱,是全球服务经济发展的成功典范。     

科技进步与北京社会阶层结构变动

自工业社会以来,科技进步引发深刻的社会阶层结构变动,改变着原有的社会分层体系。伴随着北京高新技术产业的发展,北京社会结构发生着深刻的变迁。研究表明,这一变迁突出表现在两方面:一方面,高新技术产业的发展,提高了劳动生产率,减少了劳动力投入,直接导致体力劳动者阶层在社会阶层结构中所占的比例规模不断减小,而脑力劳动者阶层规模不断壮大;另一方面,高新技术产业发展深刻影响着社会阶层结构中的资源配置,改变着原有的社会分层体系。     

浅谈基层部队思想政治教育方法创新

随着社会主义市场经济和大众传媒的深人发展，部队官兵的价值观念日趋多元化，国内外敌对势力以现代传媒为手段加紧在意识形态领域与我争夺广大官兵。我军广大政工干部必须清醒认识到基层部队思想政治教育方法创新的必要性，认真分析制约当前部队思想政治教育方法创新的主要因素，采取可行措施促进基层部队思想政治教育方法不断创新。     

European‐American and African‐American Mothers' Emotion Socialization Practices Relate Differently to Their Children's Academic and Social‐emotional Competence

The current study examines whether the relation between mothers' responses to their children's negative emotions and teachers' reports of children's academic performance and social‐emotional competence are similar or different for European‐American and African‐American families. Two hundred mothers (137 European‐American, 63 African‐American) reported on their responses to their five‐year‐old children's negative emotions and 150 kindergarten teachers reported on these children's current academic standing and skillfulness with peers. Problem‐focused responses to children's negative emotions, which have traditionally been considered a supportive response, were positively associated with children's school competence for European‐American children, but expressive encouragement, another response considered supportive, was negatively associated with children's competence for African‐American children. The findings highlight the need to examine parental socialization practices from a culturally specific lens.