理工科高校思想政治理论课程实效性研究——基于层次分析和模糊综合评价法

本文以电子科技大学、西南石油大学、成都理工大学、西南科技大学四所理工科高校的学生为调查对象,在充分利用前期问卷调查数据的基础上,采用层次分析法和模糊综合评价相结合的模糊综合评判模型,尽可能去除主观成分,合理确定评价指标权重;并对评价结果进行定性分析,使定性分析与定量分析得到较好的融合,从而对理工科高校思想政治理论课程的实效性得出公正、客观、准确的评价。     

异质性技术创新对碳强度的影响——基于全球专利数据

基于全球专利数据库（PATSTAT）,采用高价值专利统计方法,测算各国在汽车、燃料、照明和能源生产四大领域内清洁技术和污染技术的创新水平;再利用1996-2011年全球15个经济体的面板数据,分析不同类别技术创新对碳强度的影响。实证结果显示:在汽车、燃料、照明和能源生产4个领域内,中国清洁技术和污染技术的创新指标皆呈现出上升趋势,且前者提升速度更快。不同类别技术创新对碳强度的影响存在差异,即清洁技术创新存在显著的抑制作用,污染技术创新存在显著的促进作用,且碳强度变化对后者的敏感性更高。为了避免清洁技术创新的碳强度抑制效果被污染技术创新所抵消,有必要将经济资源更多地配置于清洁技术研发活动中,并逐步消除对污染技术创新的政策支持。     

Industry Clockspeed and the Pace of New Product Development

Recent empirical literature describes an industry's clockspeed as a measure of the evolutionary life cycle, which captures the dynamic nature of the industry. Among other factors, the rate of new product development is found to be associated with an industry's clockspeed. Yet the notion of an industry clockspeed and the essential factors driving suitable decision making in this area have remained relatively unexplored. We develop a simple definition and a corresponding analytic model which explains the interdependent relationship between a firm's own new product development activities and an industry clockspeed. Results from the single firm model show the conditions under which particular firms have an incentive to accelerate their new product development activities. Moreover, we link the single firm's NPD clockspeed decisions to the industry level by creating appropriate metrics which characterize different types of industries. Examples from high‐tech industries such as the personal computer and aerospace industries are included to illustrate our findings. Our intention is not only to offer analytical insights into factors driving the clockspeed for these industries, but also to establish a fundamental structured decision making approach, thereby stimulating future research on this important topic.     

Economic Evaluation of Scale Dependent Technology Investments

We study the effect of financial risk on the economic evaluation of a project with capacity decisions. Capacity decisions have an important effect on the project̂s value through the up‐front investment, the associated operating cost, and constraints on output. However, increased scale also affects the financial risk of the project through its effect on the operating leverage of the investment. Although it has long been recognized in the finance literature that operating leverage affects project risk, this result has not been incorporated in the operations management literature when evaluating projects. We study the decision problem of a firm that must choose project scale. Future cash flow uncertainty is introduced by uncertain future market prices. The firm's capacity decision affects the firm's potential sales, its expected price for output, and its costs. We study the firm's profit maximizing scale decision using the CAPM model for risk adjustment. Our results include that project risk, as measured by the required rate of return, is related to the inverse of the expected profit per unit sold. We also show that project risk is related to the scale choice. In contrast, in traditional discounted cash flow analysis (DCF), a fixed prescribed rate is used to evaluate the project and choose its scale. When a fixed rate is used with DCF, a manager will ignore the effect of scale on risk and choose suboptimal capacity that reduces project value. S/he will also misestimate project value. Use of DCF for choosing scale is studied for two special cases. It is shown that if the manager is directed to use a prescribed discount rate that induces the optimal scale decision, then the manager will greatly undervalue the project. In contrast, if the discount rate is set to the risk of the optimally‐scaled project, the manager will undersize the project by a small amount, and slightly undervalue the project with the economic impact of the error being small. These results underline the importance of understanding the source of financial risk in projects where risk is endogenous to the project design.     

Changes in Product Attributes and Costs as Drivers of New Product Diffusion and Substitution

Diffusion theory has typically focused on how communication, internal or external to a social system, leads to adoptions and diffusion of an innovation. We develop a diffusion and substitution model based on a somewhat different perspective. In some cases, progressive improvements in product attributes and/or continual cost reduction seem to be a key driver of the diffusion process. For example, after introduction of the 5.25‐inch disk drive, its capacity continually increased, and accordingly, so did customer willingness‐to‐pay. Our model is based on a linear reservation price framework, in which a product is described by its depth (defined as the difference between a product̂s maximum reservation price and its production cost), and its breadth (related to the slope of its reservation price curve), indicating how broadly it appeals across various customer segments. Because of changes in product depths and breadths over time, customers who previously preferred the old product may later prefer the new product, thus creating the diffusion process. While the Bass model describes diffusion as a function of the coefficients of innovation and imitation, in our model, it is described by the coefficients of depth and breadth (the rates of change in relative depth and breadth), along with an S‐coefficient that we associate with the technology S‐curve. We fit our model to data from the disk‐drive and the microprocessor industries.     

预研的技术供应链研究

新军事变革要求中国军队寻找一条符合中国国情具有中国特色的军事变革之路,要缩短中国军事技术研究和军事装备研制与发达国家的物理距离,必须从预研的组织管理理念上和预研的过程管理上有所突破,技术供应链的系统思维就是一种顺应预研管理需求的创新理念和过程管理的系统创新。军事技术和军事装备预研工作的重要内容就是管理正在形成中的或培育未来发展的技术供应链。技术供应链思想导源于物料供应链,形成于技术形态的理性思维和分析。以预研技术供应链的系统思维统驭管理过程将可能产生现代国防预研管理的新模式。     

广告媒介下两种产品竞争与扩散模型的进一步研究

基于巴斯模型在非垄断情形下遇到的产品扩散问题,提出了在广告媒介下两种产品竞争与扩散模型,并对扩散过程作了进一步的研究,为预测和模拟动态市场结构演变提供了充分的理论依据。     

谈谈视觉在射击运动中的作用

视觉在射击训练中各阶段有不同作用,射击训练到达高层次后在技术上必须抓以动作内感为主,并结合心理训练才能使射手的训练水平上新的台阶。     

动态路线行程时间研究

路段出行时间函数或路线行程时间函数在交通工程中已得到广泛应用,但现有模型在动态交通分配的实际应用中存在着不少问题。本文针对连续和间断两种不同交通流形式,借助于Ｇｒｅｅｎｓｈｉｅｌｄｓ模型和排队延误原理,建立了适用于动态交通分配的显式的动态路段出行时间函数表达式,从而进一步获得动态路线行程时间函数,为动态分配提供了一个重要的输入函数。     

对河北省学术期刊生存与发展的思考

一份学术刊物仅仅发行百多份,其科研成果无法向社会推广传播,无法面对日益激烈的市场竞争。经过调查认为,制约学术期刊生存与发展的因素主要有：缺乏经费;人才流失;知识老化。针对上述情况,提出了对策。