“山有多高，水有多高”——择塘村水务工程中的水权与林权

本文以“事件束”为切入点,遵循“整体生存伦理”的民族志认识论原则,把林权与水权置于当地人的生存智慧与道德表述中,从“他者”的视角全面审视林权与水权的历史实践,揭示林权与水权背后的民间法秩序。     

Analysis of progression-free survival in oncology trials: some common statistical issues

With the advent of ever more effective second and third line cancer treatments and the growing use of 'crossover' trial designs in oncology, in which patients switch to the alternate randomized treatment upon disease progression, progression-free survival (PFS) is an increasingly important endpoint in oncologic drug development. However, several concerns exist regarding the use of PFS as a basis to compare treatments. Unlike survival, the exact time of progression is unknown, so progression times might be over-estimated and, consequently, bias may be introduced when comparing treatments. Further, it is not uncommon for randomized therapy to be stopped prior to progression being documented due to toxicity or the initiation of additional anti-cancer therapy; in such cases patients are frequently not followed further for progression and, consequently, are right-censored in the analysis. This article reviews these issues and concludes that concerns relating to the exact timing of progression are generally overstated, with analysis techniques and simple alternative endpoints available to either remove bias entirely or at least provide reassurance via supportive analyses that bias is not present. Further, it is concluded that the regularly recommended manoeuvre to censor PFS time at dropout due to toxicity or upon the initiation of additional anti-cancer therapy is likely to favour the more toxic, less efficacious treatment and so should be avoided whenever possible.     

世界人口发展的理性思考

人类在21世纪面临着人口量的快速膨胀和质的结构性剧变。这必将超过地球承载力的阀值,使人与自然的矛盾更加难以调和,并由于人口结构的区域性不平衡,导致经济、社会、文化、生态、环境等诸多领域的一系列新问题,这就迫切要求人类最大限度地超越自身由于进化不完善的局限性,迅速建立起能拯救地球和最终拯救人类自己的、新的、被全人类共同接受、并自觉付诸行动的价值观。     

晚明山人治生论

“山人”一词由来已久,但其作为一个阶层出现并活跃是在晚明。作为被排除在仕途之外的知识流民,山人“不事产业”,“问舟车于四方”的世俗治生方式曾一度遭到非议,但其多样的治生方式无疑是晚明下层士人生存发展阻滞下出路的探索与扩展。其治生方式的多元性、流动性、世俗性客观上也为士人人格的完整与健全提供了契机与条件。     

人格面具:生命本真存在的生动写照——魏微《大老郑的女人》精神分析解读

巍微的短篇小说《大老郑的女人》能够获得广泛好评并荣膺第三届鲁迅文学奖,很重要的一点,就是小说生动展示了特定境遇下人生命本真存在的尴尬、无奈而又真实的现状,触及了人的生命之"疼"。大老郑和他的女人间两情相悦的"露水夫妻"关系,在生命和生存需求层面是真实的,但在道德和社会现实层面是不能容许的。小说对这种真实生存现状的细腻描写和生动展现,具有深层的人性文化内蕴。它揭示了"人格面具"在协调人的意识与无意识的公开合作、调节人的生命诉求和生存本能需要之于社会现实环境关系的重要作用,同时于温婉、平实的叙事中传达出作者直面人的生命本真存在时的人道理解、宽容和忧思。     

科技责任的存在论之思

在科技化生存境域中,科学技术不只承担人类实践的工具责任,更是人类生存方式的直接标志。科技责任的生存论维度提供了科技的对象性责任的本体论基础。对科技的生存责任的解析建基于善的生存论诠释,即善是生存合理化的彰显。     

图像时代的视觉饱和化反思

我们正处在一个高度图像化或视觉化的时代。图像的自我增殖和无节制传播凸显出视觉饱和化问题,表现在符号污染、信息流失、空间侵占三个方面。在对视觉饱和化的概念界定之后,分析视觉饱和化的成因,主要是人对图像及其效果的迷恋和媒体的视觉狂轰所致,而这是依赖技术的高度进化作强大后盾的。同时,提出“饱和、沉淀”之说,指出饱和化的进程,人类的生存状态受到压迫,引发了视觉困境与生存困境,主要体现在真实状态的迷失及存在本身的困惑。这是一种不可忽视的视觉危机,而视觉危机在某种程度上就是人性的危机。因此,对受众即“主体性人”的反思是一个必须注意的文化问题。     

Prediction of transplant-free survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients using joint models for event times and mixed multivariate longitudinal data

We implement a joint model for mixed multivariate longitudinal measurements, applied to the prediction of time until lung transplant or death in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Specifically, we formulate a unified Bayesian joint model for the mixed longitudinal responses and time-to-event outcomes. For the longitudinal model of continuous and binary responses, we investigate multivariate generalized linear mixed models using shared random effects. Longitudinal and time-to-event data are assumed to be independent conditional on available covariates and shared parameters. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, implemented in OpenBUGS, is used for parameter estimation. To illustrate practical considerations in choosing a final model, we fit 37 different candidate models using all possible combinations of random effects and employ a deviance information criterion to select a best-fitting model. We demonstrate the prediction of future event probabilities within a fixed time interval for patients utilizing baseline data, post-baseline longitudinal responses, and the time-to-event outcome. The performance of our joint model is also evaluated in simulation studies.     

Weighted Logrank Permutation Tests for Randomly Right Censored Life Science Data

In biomedical research, weighted logrank tests are frequently applied to compare two samples of randomly right censored survival times. We address the question how to combine a number of weighted logrank statistics to achieve good power of the corresponding survival test for a whole linear space or cone of alternatives, which are given by hazard rates. This leads to a new class of semiparametric projection tests that are motivated by likelihood ratio tests for an asymptotic model. We show that these tests can be carried out as permutation tests and discuss their asymptotic properties. A simulation study together with the analysis of a classical data set illustrates the advantages.