The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets

U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism.     

A Screening Methodology for the Identification and Ranking of Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Due to Terrorism

The extreme importance of critical infrastructures to modern society is widely recognized. These infrastructures are complex and interdependent. Protecting the critical infrastructures from terrorism presents an enormous challenge. Recognizing that society cannot afford the costs associated with absolute protection, it is necessary to identify and prioritize the vulnerabilities in these infrastructures. This article presents a methodology for the identification and prioritization of vulnerabilities in infrastructures. We model the infrastructures as interconnected digraphs and employ graph theory to identify the candidate vulnerable scenarios. These scenarios are screened for the susceptibility of their elements to a terrorist attack, and a prioritized list of vulnerabilities is produced. The prioritization methodology is based on multiattribute utility theory. The impact of losing infrastructure services is evaluated using a value tree that reflects the perceptions and values of the decisionmaker and the relevant stakeholders. These results, which are conditional on a specified threat, are provided to the decisionmaker for use in risk management. The methodology is illustrated through the presentation of a portion of the analysis conducted on the campus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.     

To Leave an Area After Disaster: How Evacuees from the WTC Buildings Left the WTC Area Following the Attacks

How people leave a devastated area after a disaster is critical to understanding their ability to cope with risks they face while evacuating. Knowledge of their needs for communications about these risks is particularly crucial in planning for emergency responses. A convenience sample of 1,444 persons who survived the World Trade Center (WTC) attacks on September 11, 2001 were surveyed to ascertain their initial and ultimate destinations once they had left the buildings, how they arrived there, the role of types of obstacles they encountered, and the need for information and the seeking of other people as potential factors in influencing the process of leaving immediately. This survey was part of a larger, original survey. Results showed differences in how people traveled by mode to initial and ultimate destinations, how immediately they left the area, and factors associated with when they left. How they traveled and when they left were associated with where people lived, their tendency in times of stress to seek out other people including who they knew in the immediate area (e.g., co‐workers or friends), the physical conditions surrounding them, and the importance to some of waiting for more information. Many people indicated they did not leave immediately because they had no information about where to go or what services would be available to them. Perceptions and communications about risks they were facing were reflected in the choices they considered in how and when to leave the area. These findings have numerous ramifications for understanding and guiding personal behavior in catastrophic situations.     

The Management of Violence in a Conflict Organization: The Case of the Abu Sayyaf

The Abu Sayyaf is an organization which has left a trail of mayhem and murder in the southern Philippines for more than a decade. It has gained international notoriety through several high profile mass kidnappings. This article looks at how the Abu Sayyaf has managed to survive and at times prosper despite the state's efforts to eradicate it. By using organizational analysis the paper demonstrates how the Abu Sayyaf has developed structures and processes which make it such a deadly force. The organization has succeeded in gaining considerable fit with the environment in which it operates.     

恐怖主义与反恐对策

恐怖主义被称为"20世纪的政治瘟疫",当代恐怖主义活动越来越猖獗,对世界和平与安全构成严重威胁.对恐怖主义的概念进行界定,通过分析当代恐怖主义的新特点,从而总结当今社会打击恐怖主义的对策,希望能为有效地打击恐怖主义活动提供一些参考.     

中西当代战争与恐怖主义伦理思想比较

战争和恐怖主义是当代人类的突出社会问题之一,也是各国哲学家关注和研究的重要问题。人类今天已经进入到了反对并努力消灭一切战争和恐怖主义的时代,从当代时代的趋势和潮流,着眼于世界和谐,着眼于整个人类的幸福,哲学家应坚定地站在反对恐怖主义立场上,研究当代恐怖主义的产生和流行的根源,探讨彻底消灭这一严重威胁人类生命财产安全的罪恶活动的根本途径,并为全人类这方面形成普遍共识奠定观念基础。     

论9·11后巴美对恐怖主义的认知与政策演变

9·11事件是传统安全向非传统安全转变的标志性事件之一,该事件在一定程度上改变了美国对恐怖主义的认知,改变了美国的全球反恐战略以及对南亚地区的政策,也改变了美国对巴基斯坦的政策走向和美巴关系。面对美国要把巴基斯坦炸回到旧石器时代的威胁,穆沙拉夫政府权衡利弊,根据国家利益最大化的原则,调整了美巴关系,支持美国在阿富汗的反恐战争。     

核恐怖主义的国际法应对

核恐怖主义威胁是非传统安全领域日趋重要的问题。为应对这一挑战,国际社会通过了一系列的决议与条约,确立了国际原子能机构的核心地位,并进行了诸多国际合作项目的有益尝试,初步建立了反核恐怖主义的国际法框架。但这一框架仍有很多有待完善之处。并且,最终解决核恐怖主义必须根除产生它的土壤,这需要经济、政治、法律合力为之。     

论"东突"恐怖势力对国家利益的威胁与破坏

本文论述了"东突"恐怖势力对国家利益的威胁与破坏问题,特别是从其对国家政治利益、安全利益、经济利益和文化利益的威胁与破坏等四个方面,阐述了"东突"恐怖势力的破坏范围之广、影响之深,已构成冷战之后我国新疆及中亚地区地缘政治格局中最不稳定的因素.本文指出了"东突"势力及其恐怖主义活动对地缘政治格局的影响,并认为打击"东突"已成为国际反恐斗争的重要组成部分.     

网络宣扬恐怖主义、极端主义案件的制裁思路——对当前20个样本案例的考察

考察目前构成宣扬恐怖主义、极端主义罪的20个样本案例可知,该类案件呈现出明显的犯罪手段网络化,司法规制范围模糊化与裁判尺度不统一的特点。为此,应尽快制定司法解释,科学界定本罪意涵,匡正刑法规制范围,改善打击着力点,统一裁判尺度。对网络宣扬恐怖主义、极端主义案件的司法处理,应坚持严格控制与妥善处理并重的司法理念,认真贯彻宽严相济刑事政策和基本违法事实审查判断行政去魅的基本立场。具体的制裁思路是：对宣扬恐怖主义、极端主义行为犯罪化的定性,应围绕本罪保护目的展开,重点惩治"有效宣扬"行为;定量限制应贯彻比例原则和罪责刑相适应原则;适用缓刑的实质判断关键在于对"确实不致再危害社会"的考量,除个别情形外,原则上以适用缓刑为主;手机、电脑等网络信息工具有多种用途,原则上不予没收。虽然恐怖主义犯罪不同于传统犯罪,固然要突出其预防性打击的特点,但也要恪守刑法惩治犯罪的法治底线,使处罚范围和力度符合公众预期,切忌"过度反应"。