符码化与景观生产——东北乡村喜剧的伪现实主义特点研究

符码化和景观生产是东北乡村喜剧节目呈现出的一种伪现实主义特点。伪现实主义是在现实主义的参照下，当下中国学术界新提出的一种理论观点。信息化时代，媒介突起是伪现实主义出现的背景，主要表征在影视节目文本的创作和艺术特点等方面。东北乡村喜剧是近年来最为流行的节目之一。在电视、网络等电子媒介的助推下，东北乡村喜剧首先建构出迎合受众感官和心理体验方面的“伪现实”情境；表面上打着追求“快乐”的幌子，实质上是在对东北方言进行编码；祛除历史蕴涵，错置文化语境，刻意强化、突出俚俗特点是编码的主要形式。成功编码的东北方言成为一种具有“召唤”功能的景观，观众沉浸在“傻乐”景观中，丧失了思考自身真实生活处境的能力，变成了单向度的人。     

农村居民消费不平等的微观结构分析

提出了个体微观数据基尼系数的组群、要素统一分解式,并利用该分解式考察消费结构、区域结构和收入不平等对农村居民消费不平等的影响.采用了2009年福建省农村居民生活状况调查数据进行分析,得出结论:食品、衣着类消费的增长可以降低农村居民的消费不平等,其中谷物、薯类、食用油、蔬菜及制品、肉禽蛋奶及制品的消费增长对消费公平性的提高产生积极的作用;组内不平等在总体消费不平等中占80％以上,消费差异主要表现为内部的差异;农村居民的消费不平等受收入不平等影响显著.     

中国2007绿色能源投入产出表编制及应用分析

基于最新的全国42部门投入产出表,创新性地编制出2007年全国能源投入产出表、全国绿色能源投入产出表,并在此基础上通过分析比较两表间的影响力系数、感应度系数及能源部门环境成本弹性系数,结果表明:煤炭开采业、石油开采业、火电业和炼焦业对其他部门的制约程度更大;石油开采业、石油加工业、火电业和炼焦业对其他生产部门的“拉动”作用明显下降;天然气开采业的感应度系数和影响力系数有明显改善;煤炭开采业、石油开采业、火电业和石油加工业的生产成本受环境治理成本变化影响较大.鉴此,提出中国“十二五”期间能源产业结构调整的有关政策建议.     

网上银行发展中的相关因素分析——基于TAM理论

基于技术接受理论(TAM)构建了网上银行客户采纳模型,运用问卷调查的数据对此模型进行了验证。结果表明:网上银行的技术接受模型得到了验证;个人创新特质和感知安全性对网上银行使用意向有显著的影响;将个人创新特质、感知安全性与TAM理论结合起来,在一定程度上可以更好地解释客户网上银行的使用行为。     

Bayesian Estimation and Model Choice in Item Response Models

Item response models are essential tools for analyzing results from many educational and psychological tests. Such models are used to quantify the probability of correct response as a function of unobserved examinee ability and other parameters explaining the difficulty and the discriminatory power of the questions in the test. Some of these models also incorporate a threshold parameter for the probability of the correct response to account for the effect of guessing the correct answer in multiple choice type tests. In this article we consider fitting of such models using the Gibbs sampler. A data augmentation method to analyze a normal-ogive model incorporating a threshold guessing parameter is introduced and compared with a Metropolis-Hastings sampling method. The proposed method is an order of magnitude more efficient than the existing method. Another objective of this paper is to develop Bayesian model choice techniques for model discrimination. A predictive approach based on a variant of the Bayes factor is used and compared with another decision theoretic method which minimizes an expected loss function on the predictive space. A classical model choice technique based on a modified likelihood ratio test statistic is shown as one component of the second criterion. As a consequence the Bayesian methods proposed in this paper are contrasted with the classical approach based on the likelihood ratio test. Several examples are given to illustrate the methods.     

Evidential inference for diffusion-type processes

This article analyses diffusion-type processes from a new point-of-view. Consider two statistical hypotheses on a diffusion process. We do not use a classical test to reject or accept one hypothesis using the Neyman–Pearson procedure and do not involve Bayesian approach. As an alternative, we propose using a likelihood paradigm to characterizing the statistical evidence in support of these hypotheses. The method is based on evidential inference introduced and described by Royall [Royall R. Statistical evidence: a likelihood paradigm. London: Chapman and Hall; 1997]. In this paper, we extend the theory of Royall to the case when data are observations from a diffusion-type process instead of iid observations. The empirical distribution of likelihood ratio is used to formulate the probability of strong, misleading and weak evidences. Since the strength of evidence can be affected by the sampling characteristics, we present a simulation study that demonstrates these effects. Also we try to control misleading evidence and reduce them by adjusting these characteristics. As an illustration, we apply the method to the Microsoft stock prices.     

On exact confidence intervals in a competing risks model with generalized hybrid type-I censored exponential data

In a recent paper by Mao, Shi and Sun that appeared in Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, the authors discuss, among other approaches, the construction of exact confidence intervals for the underlying parameters by ‘pivoting the cumulative distribution functions’ of the corresponding maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs). The authors assume that this method is applicable without providing the appropriate justification. In this short note the two requirements for the applicability of this method are discussed, namely, the stochastic monotonicity of the MLEs and the existence of solutions to the equations defining the exact confidence interval's endpoints.     

A computational investigation of conover's kolmogorov-smirnov test for discrete distributions

The tabled significance values of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit statistic determined for continuous underlying distributions are conservative for applications involving discrete underlying distributions. Conover (1972) proposed an efficient method for computing the exact significance level of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for discrete distributions; however, he warned against its use for large sample sizes because “the calculations become too difficult.”

In this work we explore the relationship between sample size and the computational effectiveness of Conover's formulas, where “computational effectiveness” is taken to mean the accuracy attained with a fixed precision of machine arithmetic. The nature of the difficulties in calculations is pointed out. It is indicated that, despite these difficulties, Conover's method of computing the Kolmogorov-Smirnov significance level for discrete distributions can still be a useful tool for a wide range of sample sizes.     

A new way of quantifying the symmetry of a random variable: Estimation and hypothesis testing

New measures of skewness for real-valued random variables are proposed. The measures are based on a functional representation of real-valued random variables. Specifically, the expected value of the transformed random variable can be used to characterize the distribution of the original variable. Firstly, estimators of the proposed skewness measures are analyzed. Secondly, asymptotic tests for symmetry are developed. The tests are consistent for both discrete and continuous distributions. Bootstrap versions improving the empirical results for moderated and small samples are provided. Some simulations illustrate the performance of the tests in comparison to other methods. The results show that our procedures are competitive and have some practical advantages.     

提高缴费率还是推迟退休?

本文在一般均衡OLG模型框架内对比分析了提高养老金缴费率和推迟退休年龄对劳均资本存量、个人和社会统筹账户养老金水平等经济变量的影响。分析结果表明：第一、提高个人账户缴费率除了能增加个人账户养老金和降低私人储蓄外对劳均资本存量等其他经济变量均没有影响。第二、推迟退休和提高社会统筹缴费率都会降低劳均资本存量、单位工资、私人储蓄、第一期消费及效用水平;第三、推迟退休和提高社会统筹缴费率都能提高资本回报率、个人和社会统筹账户养老金收益水平;第四、推迟退休可以提高第二期的消费水平,而提高社会统筹缴费率却会降低第二期的消费水平。上述结果表明,推迟退休的政策选择要优于提高社会统筹缴费率的政策。