从国际法看巴勒斯坦建国

巴勒斯坦建国问题是巴以冲突中悬而未决的棘手问题，在当前巴以和平进程受挫情况下，它渐渐成为巴以和谈的重要议题，且有可能成为和谈的突破口．本文从国际法角度，结合历史，分析了巴建国问题在法理上具备了哪些条件，缺哪些条件，据此对巴建国前景作个预测．     

乐教与儒者的宗教情怀

乐教是理解儒家精神不可忽视的重要方面。乐教扎根于“亲亲”之情,具体体现为与“忧患意识”有别,而与“安”“乐”相协调一致的“怛”和“哀”“悲”之情。此情实质上是超越的天道内化为人的心性而落实下来的生命意义与价值得以呈现的方式。儒者虽深知人生之哀、悲,但以乐入手,解悟和转化现实的人生与宇宙,是一大特色。如此,宗教情怀转化为现实的人生关怀,成为特有的礼乐文明的核心内涵。     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

Social Stratification and the Division of Household Labor in Japan: The Effect of Wives' Work on the Division of Labor among Dual-earner Families

Abstract:  This article explores the relationship between social stratification and the division of household labor by examining how the contribution to housework by husbands in dual-earner families varies across the Japanese social stratification structure. First, I review previous studies concerning the determinants of husbands' participation in housework and construct four hypotheses regarding the relative resources explanation, the time constraints explanation, the ideology/sex role explanation, and the alternative manpower explanation. Second, I examine the empirical support for these hypotheses in dual-earner couples and the effect of social stratification on husband's participation in housework, which has not been studied thus far. Third, I investigate the effect of social stratification in more detail. According to the results of TOBIT regressions and other supplementary analyses, the principal findings are as follows:

• 1) 

  the relative resources explanation is not supported;

       

Fuzzy K-means clustering models for triangular fuzzy time trajectories

We focus our attention on the classification of fuzzy time trajectories with triangular membership function, described by a given set of individuals. To this purpose, we adopt a fullyinformational approach, explicitly recognizing the informational nature shared by the ingredients of the classification procedure: the observed data (Empirical Information) and the classification model (Theoretical Information). In particular, by supposing that the informational paradigm has a fuzzy nature, we suggest three fuzzy clustering models allowing the classification of the triangular fuzzy time trajectories, based on the analysis of the cross sectional and/or longitudinal characteristics of their components (centers and spreads). Two applicative examples are illustrated.     

Local dependence estimation using semiparametric archimedean copulas

The authors define a new semiparametric Archimedean copula family which has a flexible dependence structure. The generator of the family is a local interpolation of existing generators. It has locally‐defined dependence parameters. The authors present a penalized constrained least‐squares method to estimate and smooth these parameters. They illustrate the flexibility of their dependence model in a bi‐variate survival example.     

论抗日民族统一战线的历史性功绩

中国共产党是中国人民抗日战争的中流砥柱,其重要功绩之一就是在民族危亡的关键时刻,高举起抗日民族统一战线的伟大旗帜。这面旗帜,开辟了中国政党政治的新局面,改变了尖锐对立的国共关系,国共两党重新合作,为抗日战争的胜利奠定了重要的政治基础;这面旗帜,为中国各民主党派的发展和壮大提供了机会和可能,民主党派成为抗日民族统一战线的重要组成部分,是中华民族团结抗日的积极力量;这面旗帜,最大限度地调动了中国人民的抗日积极性,广大人民群众成为抗日民族统一战线的主体和中坚力量,使抗日战争成为真正的人民战争;这面旗帜,使中国共产党在极其困难的条件下,开展了积极的外交活动,为其走向世界、被国际社会所承认创造了有利的条件。     

Narrating Significant Experience: Reflective Accounts and the Production of (Self) Knowledge

Notwithstanding the rise of evidence-based practice, other tendencieswithin social work scholarship are also discernible. One ofthese is the study of the everyday, routine accomplishment ofpractice, drawing on microsociological methods and techniques.In this article, I apply techniques drawn from narrative anddiscourse analysis to the study of reflective practice accounts,which hold an important place in social work education. In particular,it is relevant to examine the form that reflective accountstake and the rhetorical and narrative devices deployed withinthem to accomplish a competent professional identity. My argumentis not that such accounts of practice are untruthful, ratherI propose that we would do well to move beyond taking texts(and talk) for granted and treating language as merely the mediumfor expressing inner thoughts and feelings. Social work shouldtake seriously the need to explore its modes of representationand to cultivate a more self-conscious approach to the way professionaland client identities are produced in practice.     

《中华人民共和国会计法》英译文简评

评述了我国会计法英译文中突出存在的词汇和句法两个方面的主要错误 ,指出在翻译中国法律文件时要做到的一点是遵循一定的法律文件英译规律 ,如突出法律行为的主体、不滥用被动句、遵守原文的句型等 ,并且要吃透原文而加以忠实翻译 ,呼吁提高国家级的法律文件英译文的质量 ,尽快开展省级涉外法规的英译及其规范化工作     

思想政治教育的文化本性与文化选择

思想政治教育具有其特殊的文化本性。从教育内容上看 ,思想政治教育是一种特殊的文化传播 ;从教育的主客体属性及其运作过程看 ,它主要是文化原理的运作 ,是一个文化过程 ;从其作为社会统治和控制手段看 ,它是一种人文力。这种文化本性要求思想政治教育必须遵循文化的逻辑 ,进行正确的文化选择。一是要弘扬中国传统文化精华 ,抵御西方文化中的消极因素 ,二是要严格按照教育目的进行文化选择 ,三是要提高教育者的文化素质 ,强化文化选择 ,四是要加强亚文化建设 ,引导受教育者的文化选择。这既有助于实现思想政治教育的目的 ,而且达到了文化价值的展现