试论时间价值观

时间是一种重要的资源。时间价值观是个体以自身的需要为尺度对时间重要性的稳定态度和观念。时间价值观含有时间资源观、时间效率观、时机观、时间顺序观等方面的意义。时间价值观的结构可以有不同的划分。时间价值观受社会文化传统、个体的年龄因素、个体性格、社会环境等因素的影响。心理学对时间价值观的研究在理论上和应用中都有着重要的意义     

资源枯竭地区经济转型评价体系研究

 基于实现资源枯竭地区经济转型的根本路径在于促进其经济发展方式从资源依赖型向创新驱动型转变的认识,本文构建了一套以反映发展目标、模式、资源、资本、技术、制度、以及市场机制创新为核心内容的资源枯竭地区经济转型评价指标体系,确定了相应的评价标准,并通过典型地区经济转型进程的实证分析,揭示了资源枯竭地区经济转型的突出制约因素和主要着力点。     

Darling–Erdős limit results for change-point detection in panel data

We wish to test the null hypothesis if the means of N panels remain the same during the observation period of length T. A quasi-likelihood argument leads to self-normalized statistics whose limit distribution under the null hypothesis is double exponential. The main results are derived assuming that the each panel is based on independent observations and then extended to linear processes. The proofs are based on an approximation of the sum of squared CUSUM processes using the Skorokhod embedding scheme. A simulation study illustrates that our results can be used in case of small and moderate N and T. We apply our results to detect change in the “corruption index”.     

A Welcome to the International Statistical Conferences

Criteria for assessing the effectiveness of a medical screening program are difficult to define; medical knowledge and screening procedures change rapidly, and self-selection at medical screens is unavoidable. This article discusses these and other basic issues in evaluation of medical screening programs with particular reference to results from the HIP breast cancer study. In addition, the article reviews various statistical models that describe the processes of disease and screening. The models are shown to be statistically indistinguishable in practice because of the small sample sizes typically available in medical screening trials. Finally the article suggests incorporating knowledge from clinical trials and from studies of robustness into statistical models designed to identify reasonable strategies for screening.     

A Mechanical Interpretation of the Coefficient of Rank Correlation and other Analogies

Periodically, the pyramid or “chain letter” scheme is offered to Americans under the guise of a business dealership. Recently, the FTC ordered Glen Turner's “Dare to be Great” firm to repay 44 million dollars to participants. In order to demonstrate that the potential gains are misrepresented by promoters, a probability model of the pyramid scheme is developed. The major implications are that the vast majority of participants have less than a ten percent chance of recouping their initial investment when a small profit is achieved as soon as they recruit three people and that, on the average, half of the participants will recruit no one else and lose all their money.     

长三角科技资源配置能力与城市化进程的协调耦合关系研究

科技资源配置能力已成为长江地区城市化进程的重要推力。因此,在构建科技资源与城市化耦合系统评价指标体系的基础上,利用耦合协调度模型综合评价长江区域科技资源配置与城市化的交互耦合关系。结果显示:从时间维度看,研究期内长三角科技资源配置能力与城市化进程之间的耦合关系基本上处于磨合阶段,耦合协调度以低度协调耦合状态为主并逐步过渡到中度协调耦合状态;从空间维度看,长三角各城市的科技资源配置与城市化耦合协调度在极度协调耦合、高度协调耦合、中度协调耦合、低度协调耦合四个阶段均有分布,层级分明且大部分城市尚处于低度协调耦合状态。     

基于灰色关联的西部煤炭产业集中度影响因素研究

在概述西部原煤产量及其矿井类型与数量变化趋势的基础上,利用2003-2010年相关时序数据测度了西部煤炭产业在这一时期的集中度。随后,运用灰色关联理论,分析了期初集中度、生产扩张能力、进入壁垒、市场容量等相关因素与西部煤炭产业集中度的灰色关联程度。研究表明:期初集中度与市场容量是影响西部煤炭产业集中度诸多因素中最为重要的两个因素。在进一步分析产生这一结果深层原因的基础上,提出了提高西部煤炭产业集中度的政策建议。     

New Prediction Interval and Band in the Nonlinear Regression Model: Application to Predictive Modeling in Foods

This article is concerned with the proposal of a new prediction interval and band for the nonlinear regression model. The construction principle of this interval and band is based on an exact (the meaning of the term “exact” will be given later) confidence region for parameters of the nonlinear regression model. This region, fully described in Vila and Gauchi (2007 Vila , J.-P. , Gauchi , J.-P. ( 2007 ). Optimal designs based on exact confidence regions for parameter estimation of a nonlinear regression model . Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 137 ( 9 ): 2935 – 2953 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), provides a rigorous justification for the new prediction interval and band that we propose. This new band is then compared to the classical bands (which are asymptotic and thus approximate for small n), and also to the band based on the bootstrap resampling method. The comparison of these bands is undertaken with simulated and real data from predictive modeling in food science.     

On the use of curve fitting to model the error of the Cornish-Fisher expansion of the pearson type-VI distribution

The Cornish-Fisher expansion of the Pearson type VI distribution is known to be reasonably accurate when both degrees of freedom are relatively large (say greater than or equal to 5). However, when either or both degrees of freedom are less than 5, the accuracy of the computed percentage point begins to suffer; in some cases severely. To correct for this, the error surface in the degrees of freedom plane is modeled by least squares curve fitting for selected levels of tail probability (.025, .05, and .10) which can be used to adjust the percentage point obtained from the usual Cornish-Fisher expansion. This adjustment procedure produces a computing algorithm that computes percentage points of the Pearson type VI distribution at the above probability levels, accurate to at least + 1 in 3 digits in approximately 11 milliseconds per subroutine call on an IBM 370/145. This adjusted routine is valid for both degrees of freedom greater than or equal to 1.