De minimis and equity in risk

Indices and orderings are developed for evaluating alternative strategies in the management of risk. They reflect the goals of reducing individual and collective risks, of increasing equity, and of assigning priority to the reduction and to the equity of high risks. Individual risk is defined as the (random or non-random) level of exposure to a danger. In particular the role of a lower negligibility level is investigated. A class of indices is proposed which involves two parameters, a negligibility level and a parameter of inequality aversion, and several interpretations of the indices are discussed. We provide a set of eight axioms which are necessary and sufficient for this class of indices, and we present an approach to deal with partial information on the parameters.     

The Limitations and Opportunities of Business Process Re-engineering in a Politicized Organizational Climate

This paper is concerned with the organizationalchange and project management issues raised by theimplementation of a business process re-engineering(BPR) approach in the politicized hospital context. This is a report of research in progress,focusing on the issues arising at the problem definitionand project planning stages of a BPR application in anoperating theaters department experiencing problems with scheduling and delays. The research designrelies on a case study approach, with the researcher asparticipant observer, as both an adviser to the projectteam and as field interviewer. The paper argues that an ambitious BPR agenda is compromised inat least two regards. First, the lack of precisionsurrounding the focus and methodology of BPR givespolitically motivated actors considerable influence with respect to defining terms of reference in wayswhich will shape potential outcomes in their favor.Second, the complexity and indeterminacy of the businessprocess or patient trail can also diluteredesign attempts. The principal limitations of theapproach thus concern the impracticality of embarking onrapid and radical change working from a blanksheet of paper with respect to organizational and job design. BPR, unlike other organizationdevelopment interventions, is not a contextsensitive approach. The role of project manageris critical in establishing a working balance betweenindividual, occupational, and organizational goals in a manner perceivedto be legitimate in the context. Effective BPR projectmanagement thus requires a combination of political andprocess analysis skills. The principal opportunities of BPR derive from its process orientation,which brings a fresh perspective to a traditionally andfunctionally fragmented organizational setting, andwhich presents a potentially valuable platform for anevolutionary approach to process improvement.     

中国古代诗歌艺术之根本精神──“无我相”

儒、释、道三家哲学的共同特正是“无我相”;中国古典诗歌艺术的根本精神也是“无我相”,代表儒释道三家精神的诗人屈原、王维和陶渊明三派诗歌,以艺术手段显现至高无上之境──“物我皆忘”,“物我一体”、在此境界之中,诗歌作为艺术家心灵的外化,绝不是中纯的语言文字对情感的渲泄,而是生命中修炼境界的极致,通达这种“无我”的人格境界和艺术精神,正是中国诗歌艺术的根本精神,     

Comparative probability for conditional events: A new look through coherence

We study, from the standpoint of coherence, comparative probabilities on an arbitrary familyE of conditional events. Given a binary relation ·, coherence conditions on · are related to de Finetti's coherent betting system: we consider their connections to the usual properties of comparative probability and to the possibility of numerical representations of ·. In this context, the numerical reference frame is that of de Finetti's coherent subjective conditional probability, which is not introduced (as in Kolmogoroff's approach) through a ratio between probability measures.Another relevant feature of our approach is that the family & need not have any particular algebraic structure, so that the ordering can be initially given for a few conditional events of interest and then possibly extended by a step-by-step procedure, preserving coherence.     

Three pseudo-paradoxes in ‘quantum’ decision theory: Apparent effects of observation on probability and utility

In quantum domains, the measurement (or observation) of one of a pair of complementary variables introduces an unavoidable uncertainty in the value of that variable's complement. Such uncertainties are negligible in Newtonian worlds, where observations can be made without appreciably disturbing the observed system. Hence, one would not expect that an observation of a non-quantum probabilistic outcome could affect a probability distribution over subsequently possible states, in a way that would conflict with classical probability calculations. This paper examines three problems in which observations appear to affect the probabilities and expected utilities of subsequent outcomes, in ways which may appear paradoxical. Deeper analysis of these problems reveals that the anomalies arise, not from paradox, but rather from faulty inferences drawn from the observations themselves. Thus the notion of quantum decision theory is disparaged.     

Financial management: Development of scales

This study is a contribution to the development of family resource management scales, specifically financial management scales. Principal axis factor analysis, with varimax rotation, is used to assess underlying relationships in 23 family resource management variables related to time and money resources. Reliability and content, construct, and criterion-related validity of the scales are assessed. Two scales that are reliable and have some degree of validity are developed: frequency of financial problems and frequency of financial management. The scales could be used in future research, teaching, or counseling to organize financial management concepts.Preparation of this research was supported in part by the Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station. Data were collected in conjunction with the cooperative regional research project NC-182, Family Resource Utilization as a Factor in Determining Economic Well-Being of Rural Families. Cooperating states are Arizona, California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Minnesota.She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois; her current research interests include gender roles, family financial management, and economic well-being.Her current research interests include family financial management and consumer bankruptcy. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Missouri.Her current research interests include the economic well-being of various family forms. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois.She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois. Her research interests are economic well-being and quality of life.     

Factors associated with expectation of household's future financial condition

Path analysis is used to examine the causal relationships among selected objective and subjective factors associated with a household's expectation of future financial condition. Results indicate that respondents who perceive the effect of changes in the external environment on their own household's financial condition as positive are younger, have higher net worth, perceive more internal control over their situation, and report that most of the changes in the external environment are positive. Respondents who are younger, have higher income, perceive more internal control over their situation, and believe the effect of changes in the external environment on their household's financial condition are positive are more likely to be optimistic about their financial future. It is important that educators and financial advisors recognize the significant role perception of being in control plays in determining expectations of future financial condition.Journal Paper No. J-15256 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Project No. 2809. Data were collected in conjunction with the cooperative regional research project NC-182, Family Resource Utilization as a Factor in Determining Economic Well-Being of Rural Families. Cooperating states are Arizona, California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Minnesota.Her current research interests include family financial management and consumer bankruptcy; she received her Ph.D. from the University of Missouri.She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois; her current research interests include gender roles, family financial management, and economic well-being.She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois. Her research interests are economic well-being and quality of life.Her current research interests include the economic well-being of various family forms. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois.     

Correlates of honor ratings in a clinical clerkship employing a faculty forum evaluation system

5he purpose of this study was to determine whether or not suspected variables affected a surgery clerk's chances of being awarded an honor rating. Findings indicated a significant relationship between a student receiving an honor rating and his or her preceptor's predetermined level of student advocacy, the number of completed patient interview and physical examination write-ups, and final examination scores. There was no significant relationship found between honor ratings and the preceptor's status, the sequence in which the student was discussed or the length of time spent discussing the student at the final evaluation meeting, or the number of clinical faculty present at the meeting. These results lend support to the faculty forum evaluation approach, but suggest a need for further scrutiny of some influencing variables to ensure all students are fairly considered and honor ratings judiciously awarded.     

Physician perceptions of medical malpractice and defensive medicine

Using judgments obtained in interviews with 33 Massachusetts physicians, the annual statewide volume of expenditures incurred for defensive medical reasons in 1982 was estimated to be $1.0 billion, 12% of all medical care expenditures. Estimates for the nation were $37 billion, 14% of expenditures. Nationally, 180,000 cesarean deliveries were thought to be performed for defensive motives. In their own institutions, respondents judged 43% of all skull x-rays following injury to be medically justified, 30% to be defensive medicine, 16% to be placebos, and 11% to be physician misjudgments. In considering the economic and noneconomic costs of medical malpractice procedures, the dollar costs of insurance were considered most serious, followed closely by defensive medicine, unfairness, and poorer relations with patients. Thirty-two percent of the responsibility for the negative aspects of malpractice processes was assigned to lawyers, 21% to physicians, 18% to legislatures and courts, 16% to patients, and 13% to insurance companies.     

Mental health program evaluation: Where you start?

Seduced by the elegance, sophistication and jargon characteristic of new developments in applied research, practicing evaluators are in danger of becoming distracted from achievement of their evaluative goal: that of providing timely, reliable and useful data to program management to facilitate rational data-based decision-making. To avoid such seduction, the author advocates adaptation of simple, inexpensive and efficient evaluative methods tailored to organizational needs and presentation of findings in language readily understood by constituent groups. Likewise, insistance by evaluators upon maintenance of a strict role boundary — that is, limiting role functioning exclusively to those tasks considered evaluation — may be dysfunctional. Rather than detract from accomplishment of his goals, the author maintains that such participation allows development of skills, insights and staff relationships which enhance the evaluator's effective functioning within the organizational context and contribute to organizational acceptance and use of his evaluative results.