Identification of arma models with non-gaussian innovations

The problem of modelling time series driven by non-Gaussian innovation has been considered recently by Li and McLeod (1988). In this paper we have discussed the problem of identification of ARMA models with non-Gaussian innovations. Simulation experiments are used to study the applicability of theoretical results.     

第三部门对社会矛盾冲突的调控作用探析

现代社会广泛兴起的介乎于政府和市场之间的第三部门，具有正规性、民间性、非营利性、自治性、志愿性和公益性等特性，在消除社会矛盾和冲突中，起着独特的作用。我国正处于社会矛盾的凸显期，应充分发挥第三部门组织的预防、整合、沟通、协调和济贫救困功能，化解社会矛盾和冲突，促进社会和谐。     

我国现代物流的风险及物流保险需求分析

物流业已成为近几年我国经济领域中最活跃、最热门的新兴行业之一,第三方物流形态正引起人们的重视,其发展空间很大。但我国现代物流运行却涉及制度和法律风险、合同风险以及责任范围加大的风险。在现代物流中传统保险不能解决第三方物流公司面临的代位追偿等问题,而2004年推出的物流保险也存在物流保险责任范围小、计收保费依据不科学、不能满足快速发展的市场需求等缺陷。因此,我国急需发展现代物流综合保险,而根据物流市场的需要,进一步开发适销对路的险种是其中的关键。第三方物流企业也应根据需要选择物流综合保险策略,从而降低风险。     

政府直接生产公共物品的理论分析

在分析政府直接生产公共物品的理论前提的基础上,分析政府生产所面临的困难及低效率产生的主要原因,并提出引入绩效评估体制、加强对公共资金支出的管理等策略选择。     

我国物流企业面临的挑战与出路

加入WTO以后 ,我国物流企业所面临的压力和挑战既有整体物流企业素质和行业内部发展不平衡的问题 ,也有强大的国外物流企业参与竞争和物流市场份额变化方面的原因。中国物流业可以选择“自我完善型”或“功能性的整合型”发展模式 ,但都必须重视信息化在现代物流发展中的作用 ,不断优化物流信息资源。     

第三人分类研究

学术界对第三人概念不加区分地使用,让人难以分清是哪种意义上的第三人,造成理解上的困难。为纠正这一混乱现象,本文对第三人的概念从整体到局部作了详细的分类,呼吁学术界对第三人概念应加定语使用以避免产生歧义。     

Managing Demand Uncertainty through Core Acquisition in Remanufacturing

We discuss the optimal raw material acquisition strategy for a third party remanufacturer (3PR). We specifically investigate whether a 3PR should acquire used products or cores in bulk with uncertain quality levels, or in sorted grades with known quality levels; and whether to acquire and remanufacture cores before the demand is realized (planned acquisition), or after the demand is realized (reactive acquisition), or on both occasions (sequential acquisition). When only sorted cores are acquired, we find that, (i) it is optimal to acquire cores in multiple grades to balance acquisition and remanufacturing costs; (ii) if reactive acquisition is possible, it reduces the assortment size (number of grades in which cores are acquired) and the total inventory acquired in the planned acquisition; and (iii) the optimal portfolio of grades to acquire and the optimal acquisition and remanufacturing quantities of these grades can be determined analytically. When bulk cores are acquired in addition to sorted cores, the property of reduction in assortment size of the planned acquisition is preserved. We also show that the 3PR should acquire only a fraction of the demand in planned acquisition, and leave the rest for reactive acquisition. This fraction changes during the lifecycle of a remanufactured product. Using a combination of empirical and realistic data from a smartphone remanufacturer we show that sequential acquisition increases expected profit by up to 8% and 27% over only planned and only reactive acquisitions respectively, and reduces the inventory acquired by up to 21% over only planned acquisition.     

论第三方骚扰用户时电信运营商的侵权责任

方便快捷的移动通讯为人们的生活带来了方便,也带来了电信骚扰的烦恼。第三方用户对其他用户的骚扰情形越来越多,除了追究第三方的直接侵权责任之外,电信运营商也应当承担过错范围内的侵权责任。     

碳强度对中国主要产业部门产值变动敏感性的动态估计

测算产业产值变动对碳强度的作用,可以为碳减排目标下产业结构调整方案的制定提供指导。基于投入产出理论建立系统动力学模型,以此为基础,分析中国主要产业部门产值变动对碳强度的动态作用过程,并从投资结构和消费结构两个方面探讨实现中国主要产业部门碳减排目标的有效途径。研究结果表明:从即期效应来看,制造业,电力、热力及水的生产和供应业,采矿业,其产值增加会使碳强度提高;从动态变化过程来看,农林牧渔业,采矿业,制造业,建筑业,交通运输、仓储和邮电业,批发零售贸易、住宿和餐饮业,房地产、租赁和商务服务业,其产值增加1%后碳强度呈现逐年降低的趋势;从碳强度的变化趋势来看,各产业部门产值增加对碳强度的作用力逐渐趋于稳定;产业产值变动碳减排效力的提高要依靠投资政策。     

智慧城市建设中投资控制问题探讨

阐述了智能化项目的生命周期和主要特点,分析认为,当前智慧城市建设投资管控中存在着顶层设计不到位、预算编制不规范、招标过程漏洞大、专业人才缺口大等一系列问题,在此基础上,对进一步完善智慧城市建设投资控制提出了顶层设计、流程再造、第三方咨询等优化举措。