基于时间序列的河北省物流与经济增长

现代物流业作为第三产业的一部分,在经济增长中发挥着重要的作用。运用时间序列中的协整分析、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验对河北省1990－2012年物流业的统计数据进行实证分析,以研究物流业与经济增长之间的关系,并对物流业的进一步发展提出相关建议。     

Intergenerational Yearnings and Other “Acts of Perversion”: Or Where Would I Be Without Lesbian Drumming?

This article explores the (il)legibilities of race, gender, sexuality, and interracial solidarity between two feminist generations. Using the words of Judy Grahn and Pat Parker, the author juxtaposes her own experience and writings as a queer, Black, feminist, born in 1971 with their dyke, feminist writings of the same period, asking “Where Would I Be, Without You?” Central to this question is a queer re-imagining of queer past and future in an effort to understand the potential for interracial, feminist solidarity in the twenty-first century.     

Going back: ‘Stalking’, talking and researcher responsibilities in qualitative longitudinal research

This paper explores the process of going back in qualitative longitudinal research (QLR) to gather later accounts of unfolding personal experiences. The design of interview-based QLR is usually premised on collecting data, over-time, around an unfolding experience or event. This design facilitates the establishment of an on-going research relationship and ‘rapport’ and the accessing of fluid and time-sensitive accounts of individual experiences, leading to more nuanced understandings of temporal subjectivities. However in practice maintaining a sample in QL research, which may span a number of years, can be challenging and the process of going back, complicated. This paper reflects on issues and responsibilities which can arise when researchers try to access and go back to participants, especially where experiences once optimistically narrated and future-oriented have unfolded in unplanned and personally unwelcome ways. Using researcher experiences and the data from later phases of two UK based QLR studies on transition to first-time motherhood and first-time fatherhood, the practical steps of maintaining contact, reconnecting with participants and going back are documented. How does the passage of time and changes in participant’s lives alter research relationships, interpretations of data and researcher responsibilities?     

关于"时间"的民俗与文化

本文以生动的实例和田野调查材料, 论述了从时间民俗的角度探讨中国社会的结构、认识中国文化的特征以及理解中国人民的生活方式的可能性与必要性。     

中国古代时空观与道观念的演变

中国古代时空观在中国古代法象思维的影响下,与原始的道的含义有着密切的关联。但是在宋明理学兴起之后,这种与天地万物的实际存在相联系的时间和空间则由于理与气的相分而与理分离开来。道在宋明理学中被理学一系改造为天理,这个天理已经不是过去那种与气、时空纠结在一起的混沌未分的存在。可以说,道在宋明时期分化出了两个部分,即理和气;我们因此也便知晓,宋明时期所说的天理只是先秦时期道的一个部分,虽然道的原意依旧在张载、王夫之的思想中有所保留,但中国主流关于道的思想发生了重大的变化,这一变化在中国思想史上的影响是十分深远的。     

湖南省性别工资差异及其影响因素研究——基于家务劳动时间的视角

通过建立理论模型,并用2014年湖南省5县区20个城乡社区的调查数据,从家务劳动时间的视角分析湖南劳动力市场的性别工资差异及其影响因素。结果发现,家务劳动时间是影响湖南劳动力市场性别工资差异的重要因素,同时其他影响因素还有月工资收入、受教育程度、行业等,但职务职称对性别工资差异的影响存在不确定性。因此,政府应大力发展家庭服务业,建立健全覆盖城乡的家庭服务体系,基本满足家庭的服务需求,使女性从家务劳动中解脱出来,同时应通过政策倾斜确保女性培训比例,增强就业竞争实力;规范劳动合同,维护私有及民营企业女性从业者在劳动就业、社会保障等方面的合法权益。     

Estimating Mean Survival Time: When is it Possible?

For right‐censored survival data, it is well‐known that the mean survival time can be consistently estimated when the support of the censoring time contains the support of the survival time. In practice, however, this condition can be easily violated because the follow‐up of a study is usually within a finite window. In this article, we show that the mean survival time is still estimable from a linear model when the support of some covariate(s) with non‐zero coefficient(s) is unbounded regardless of the length of follow‐up. This implies that the mean survival time can be well estimated when the support of linear predictor is wide in practice. The theoretical finding is further verified for finite samples by simulation studies. Simulations also show that, when both models are correctly specified, the linear model yields reasonable mean square prediction errors and outperforms the Cox model, particularly with heavy censoring and short follow‐up time.     

中国上古岁时观念论考

上古岁时观念萌发于中国特定的地理人文环境之中 ,它具有自然性、前宗教性、政治性三大文化特征。人世的时间秩序依托于神秘的自然秩序 ,上古时令与政令合一 ,时间的政治性质明显     

Indirect estimation of randomized generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models

The class of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models can be used to describe the volatility with less parameters than autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH)-type models, their distributions are heavy-tailed, with time-dependent conditional variance, and are able to model clustering of volatility. Despite all these facts, the way that GARCH models are built imposes limits on the heaviness of the tails of their unconditional distribution. The class of randomized generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (R-GARCH) models includes the ARCH and GARCH models allowing the use of stable innovations. Estimation methods and empirical analysis of R-GARCH models are the focus of this work. We present the indirect inference method to estimate the R-GARCH models, some simulations and an empirical application.     

Analysis of discrete lifetime data under middle-censoring and in the presence of covariates

‘Middle censoring’ is a very general censoring scheme where the actual value of an observation in the data becomes unobservable if it falls inside a random interval (L, R) and includes both left and right censoring. In this paper, we consider discrete lifetime data that follow a geometric distribution that is subject to middle censoring. Two major innovations in this paper, compared to the earlier work of Davarzani and Parsian [3 N. Davarzani and A. Parsian, Statistical inference for discrete middle-censored data, J. Statist. Plan. Inference 141 (2011), pp. 1455–1462. doi: 10.1016/j.jspi.2010.10.012[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]], include (i) an extension and generalization to the case where covariates are present along with the data and (ii) an alternate approach and proofs which exploit the simple relationship between the geometric and the exponential distributions, so that the theory is more in line with the work of Iyer et al. [6 S.K. Iyer, S.R. Jammalamadaka, and D. Kundu, Analysis of middle censored data with exponential lifetime distributions, J. Statist. Plan. Inference 138 (2008), pp. 3550–3560. doi: 10.1016/j.jspi.2007.03.062[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]]. It is also demonstrated that this kind of discretization of life times gives results that are close to the original data involving exponential life times. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is studied for this middle-censoring scheme with covariates and their large sample distributions discussed. Simulation results indicate how well the proposed estimation methods work and an illustrative example using time-to-pregnancy data from Baird and Wilcox [1 D.D. Baird and A.J. Wilcox, Cigarette smoking associated with delayed conception, J, Am. Med. Assoc. 253 (1985), pp. 2979–2983. doi: 10.1001/jama.1985.03350440057031[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] is included.