定期租船合同下承运人识别问题研究

在海上货物运输中，以定期租船运输货物时，无论是船东，还是承租人都可能成为承运人。如何确定海上货物运输合同责任主体是海事审判实践中亟待解决的一个理论和实际问题。该文系统分析了定期租船合同下承运人识别问题产生的渊源、承运人识别的依据及其方法，在此基础上作者提出了解决定期租船合同下承运人识别问题的初步建议。     

武则天的家世与生年新探

学术界对于武则天的家世生平多有研究 ,但仍有许多问题悬而未决。史实证明 ,武则天并非出于胡族 ;其母亲杨氏亦非出身寒微 ,以往有关她的年龄记载亦有误。据此 ,杨氏的年龄不足以成为武则天出生地的判断依据。而她出生于广元 ,亦非空穴来风之说     

“当/在S还是X的时候”结构新探

本文分为三个部分。第一部分考察"当/在S还是X的时候"的结构和功能;第二部分分析简缩形式"还是X的时候";第三部分探讨常见组合"当/在S还是X的时候,S'就……"的意义与语用特点。最后是本文的小结。     

Child‐Care Usage and Mother‐Infant “Quality Time”

Mothers' time‐use patterns were compared in families in which infants spent more than 30 hours per week in child care (In‐Care group; n= 143) versus 0 hours per week (At‐Home group; n= 183) from birth to 6 months of age. In‐Care group mothers spent about 12 fewer hours per week interacting with their infants, for about 32% less time; fathers of these infants were more involved in caregiving. The groups did not differ in the quality of mother‐infant interaction. In the In‐Care group, quantity of interaction was related to greater separation anxiety and concerns about effects of maternal employment. Time‐use data were not related to child outcomes at 15 months of age. Results suggest that the effect of extensive time spent apart on the quantity and quality of mother‐infant interaction may be smaller than anticipated.     

论近代中国产业革命被窒息的原因--一个必须遵循先进生产力发展要求的历史实例

近代科学技术与民族棉纺织业私人资本结合是东方型产业革命兴起的直接导因.洋务运动使近代中国具备了产业革命兴起的可能性;但由于晚清政府不能代表当时中国先进生产力的发展要求,造成近代中国棉纺织业的发展走的是一条技术与资本相分离的道路,致使近代中国产业革命被窒息.     

Missing data and forecasting in multivariate time series: An application of the common components dynamic linear model

Summary The paper deals with missing data and forecasting problems in multivariate time series making use of the Common Components Dynamic Linear Model (DLMCC), presented in Quintana (1985), and West and Harrison (1989). Some results are presented and discussed: exploiting the correlation between series, estimated by the DLMCC, the paper shows as it is possible to update state vector posterior distributions for the unobserved series. This is realized on the base of the updating of the observed series state vectors, for which the usual Kalman filter equations can be applied. An application concerning some Italian private consumption series provides an example of the model capabilities.     

长江三峡地区舟楫的主要功用和民俗文化

长江三峡地区自古以来就是水上交通和战略要道。舟楫对这一地区社会、经济的发展起着不可估量的重要作用。它不仅是这一地区运输的大动脉,更是旅游的主力军。此外舟楫与本地区的民俗和文化水乳交融,有着深厚的积淀和内涵,舟楫文化对该地区社会、文化的发展具有深远的影响和意义。     

跨文化交际中的时空观念差异

不同文化背景的人,由于受不同文化传统的影响,其思维方式不同,在人际交往中的时间观念(如时间顺序排列、时间取向、遵守时间的态度)和空间观念(如对体距的认识、对个人领地的态度等)也存在差异。这些差异往往容易被人们忽视,从而影响交际的正常进行,甚至导致交际的失败。因此,在交往中我们应该正确对待文化差异,自觉排除文化差异的干扰。     

Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?

This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.     

时间如何前进——进化论随笔

中国古代"与时偕行"、"与时俱化"的观念,以取法天地四时的运行为基准,是一种四时循环论的变化观.我党提出的"与时俱进"思想的含义,是随着时代的前进而前进,和随着时代的变化而变化,体现了鲜明的时代创新精神,它的哲学基础是科学进化论.这一特征在语词上通过一个"进"字表达出来.虽然"与时俱进"和"与时俱化"只有一字之差,却体现了本质的超越.同时,这一表述通过对中国古代<易经>、<庄子>等经典的吸收,丰富了自身的思想内涵,也建立,了联接传统与现代的一道桥梁.当然,由于现代时间观念的一维性质,使得人们在批驳"直线进化论"的同时,易于陷入"时间进化论",而时间进化论实际上也是一种直线进化论,这也是需要警醒的.