从城市崇拜看阎连科的小说创作

阎连科出生在贫困的乡村,由于童年和少年时期的缺失性体验而产生一种向往城市的心理。这种心理在他的小说中体现为贫瘠土地上的青年农民拼命逃离土地、渴望进入城市的迫切心情。他的小说可以让人感受到主人公在逃离土地之路上挣扎的痛苦心声,同时也可体味到作者希冀精神上回归土地的殷切心情。     

Beyond the Preschool Years: Children’s Perceptions About Starting Kindergarten

This article describes a research study that investigated three‐ and four‐year‐old Canadian preschool children’s perceptions about starting kindergarten. Findings from 33 focus‐group discussions suggest that children begin to formulate ideas about starting kindergarten prior to school entry. Children’s responses were grouped according to three themes, play versus academic activities and homework; getting bigger but still needing help; and rules. Overall, the responses highlighted their expectations regarding continuity and discontinuity between the two environments. These findings support the position that children should be given the opportunity to contribute to the planning of transition practices.     

从俞平伯晚年自省和“李希凡自述”想到的(之三)——回应俞平伯晚年的红学研究反思

俞平伯先生晚年的红学自省是真实可信的,应引起红学界高度重视,他的红学研究思想的重大变化同1954年那场对他的批评有内在的因果关系。对当年那场"批俞评红"不能全盘否定,不能只讲负面问题,全面否定其正确性和必要性。现在红学研究的一些乱象正是当年批判过了的错误研究思想、研究方法的泛滥。这种泛滥同对当年的全盘否定不无关系。     

A new stratified three-stage unrelated randomized response model for estimating a rare sensitive attribute based on the Poisson distribution

This article suggests an efficient method of estimating a rare sensitive attribute which is assumed following Poisson distribution by using three-stage unrelated randomized response model instead of the Land et al. model (2011 Land, M., S. Singh, and S. A. Sedory. 2011. Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute using poisson distribution. Statistics 46 (3):351–60. doi:10.1080/02331888.2010.524300.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) when the population consists of some different sized clusters and clusters selected by probability proportional to size(:pps) sampling. A rare sensitive parameter is estimated by using pps sampling and equal probability two-stage sampling when the parameter of a rare unrelated attribute is assumed to be known and unknown.

We extend this method to the case of stratified population by applying stratified pps sampling and stratified equal probability two-stage sampling. An empirical study is carried out to show the efficiency of the two proposed methods when the parameter of a rare unrelated attribute is assumed to be known and unknown.     

Robustness to non-normality and autocorrelation of individuals control charts

This paper studies the effects of non-normality and autocorrelation on the performances of various individuals control charts for monitoring the process mean and/or variance. The traditional Shewhart X chart and moving range (MR) chart are investigated as well as several types of exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) charts and combinations of control charts involving these EWMA charts. It is shown that the combination of the X and MR charts will not detect small and moderate parameter shifts as fast as combinations involving the EWMA charts, and that the performana of the X and MR charts is very sensitive to the normality assumption. It is also shown that certain combinations of EWMA charts can be designed to be robust to non-normality and very effective at detecting small and moderate shifts in the process mean and/or variance. Although autocorrelation can have a significant effect on the in-control performances of these combinations of EWMA charts, their relative out-of-control performances under independence are generally maintained for low to moderate levels of autocorrelation.     

Economic and economic statistical designs for three-level control charts

In some situations, an appropriate quality measure uses three or more discrete levels to classify a product characteristic. For these situations, some control charts have been developed based on statistical criteria regardless of economic considerations. In this paper, we develop economic and economic statistical designs (ESD) for 3-level control charts. We apply the cost model proposed by Costa and Rahim.[Economic design of X charts with variable parameters: the Markov chain approach, J Appl Stat 28 (2001), 875–885] Furthermore, we assume that the length of time that the process remains in control is exponentially distributed which allows us to apply the Markov chain approach for developing the cost model. We apply a genetic algorithm to determine the optimal values of model parameters by minimizing the cost function. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed models and to compare the cost of the pure economic and ESD for three-level control charts. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted in this numerical example.     

德、位张力与先秦儒家的性命之学——对楚简《唐虞之道》第14至29号简的思想解读

文章系统解读了楚简《唐虞之道》第14至29号简的思想内涵及脉络,认为这部分简文首先通过尧成为天子之原因的追问,突出了德与位的张力问题,即在应然之理上,有位必当有德,但就实然之事看,有德未必有位.简文对这一德位张力有两个层面的解决方案:一方面,要求有德无位者全力修德,谨守性命,安于时命,养成恒常如一的圆满德行,从而能在得位而治时能“利天下而弗利”；另一方面,要求有位者透悟性命之正,从而能主动尚德授贤、退而养生,这既能使贤者居位而利天下,又能退而养生以自利.简文将“七十致政”之礼普遍化,试图断绝天子终身制的构想,也具有深刻的政治哲学意义.     

《广绝交论》写作时间的考订及其意义

有关刘孝标《广绝交论》的写作时间，学术界主要有天监七年、天监九年两种观点。考察刘孝标在天监年间的行迹不难发现，天监十一年是刘孝标生平思想变化的重要转折点，以此为界，他由之前的汲汲于仕途功名彻底转向拒弃名利、向往隐逸。这一思想心态的蜕变，是《广绝交论》一文的基本创作前提，该文即作于此年。     

对口支援政策下的产业援疆模式选择与实现路径

积极探索和研究产业援疆模式,有助于实现东西部经济合作,促进产业结构调整,推动新疆自我发展能力的提高。该文基于对口支援政策,总结和借鉴了内地省份飞地经济发展的经验和启示,结合新疆区情,根据产业援疆中的政府作用和资金特点,认为江苏模式、中石化模式、广东模式、山东模式四种较为成功、典型的产业援疆模式及其适用领域,可作为产业援疆借鉴与选择的路径模式,并从产业援疆的市场主体、转移动力、政策体系、运行机制、园区开放等方面就提升产业援疆模式的效率提出了相应的措施和建议。     

汉代统治阶层对民间信仰的限制和引导

汉代民间的鬼神祭祀并非单纯地以祈福禳灾为目的,它还包含有以祝诅等巫术伤害他人,被伤害者甚至有可能是最高统治阶层。祭祀中害人巫术的存在,无疑会对社会治安、统治阶层本身乃至统治秩序的正常运行造成影响。面对这样的挑战,汉代的统治阶层设立严刑峻法、设置祠祝官进行抵御;而统治阶层中的知识分子将先秦以来限制祭祀规模的传统理念用于现实政治,致力于革新鬼神观念、宣扬"淫祀无福",试图在思想上对民众进行引导。