Stability analysis using mixed models: A critique of tolerance interval methods and a probabilistic solution

Recently, tolerance interval approaches to the calculation of a shelf life of a drug product have been proposed in the literature. These address the belief that shelf life should be related to control of a certain proportion of batches being out of specification. We question the appropriateness of the tolerance interval approach. Our concerns relate to the computational challenges and practical interpretations of the method. We provide an alternative Bayesian approach, which directly controls the desired proportion of batches falling out of specification assuming a controlled manufacturing process. The approach has an intuitive interpretation and posterior distributions are straightforward to compute. If prior information on the fixed and random parameters is available, a Bayesian approach can provide additional benefits both to the company and the consumer. It also avoids many of the computational challenges with the tolerance interval methodology.     

A Nonstationary Cylinder–Based Model Describing Group Dispersal in a Fragmented Habitat

□ A doubly nonstationary cylinder-based model is built to describe the dispersal of a population from a point source. In this model, each cylinder represents a fraction of the population, i.e., a group. Two contexts are considered: The dispersal can occur in a uniform habitat or in a fragmented habitat described by a conditional Boolean model. After the construction of the models, we investigate their properties: the first and second order moments, the probability that the population vanishes, and the distribution of the spatial extent of the population.     

对“接受史研究”应在宽容中接受——与袁晓薇博士商榷

袁晓薇博士的论文《别让"接受"成为一个筐——谈古代文学接受史研究的变异和突围》分析了当今接受史研究的误区,并给出了几条"突围"的良方,值得肯定。但该文中一些观点与评述存在偏颇之处,会使读者对接受史研究的现状产生诸多误解,不利于接受史研究的进一步推进。对于新兴的接受史研究来说,与其过于苛责,不如更多地予以宽容。     

Promoting tolerance for homosexuality: An evaluation of intervention strategies

This article presents a methodological critique of the few attempts to promote tolerance for homosexuality through education. The d statistic was utilized to assess the extent of attitude change from pre‐ to post‐intervention assessment. With few exceptions, data have been gathered from college students in courses focused on human sexuality. These data suggest that students who complete these courses become less fearful of contact with homosexuals, more tolerant of homosexuals in social roles, and more tolerant of homosexual behavior, although the extent and duration of the changes may be limited. Although some attribute attitude change to the intensiveness of the course, methodological and conceptual problems, including volunteer bias, provide alternative explanations. Further attempts to promote tolerance toward homosexuality must consider differences in attitudes toward gay men and lesbians and the extent to which men and women differ in their level of tolerance toward these groups.     

“TRUTH” AND “RECONCILIATION” AS SOCIAL INDICATORS

Countries throughout the world are trying to move toward a more democratic future through truth and reconciliation processes, under the assumption that truth causes reconciliation and that reconciliation contributes to democratization. But are “truth” and “reconciliation” concepts that can be measured rigorously and reliability? I present evidence in this article that each can be measured as an attribute of individuals, based on a large survey conducted in South Africa. My findings indicate that truth does indeed contribute to reconciliation. But because reconciliation is quite capable of changing (and likely to change) over time, efforts must be made to track levels of reconciliation as an important social indicator. Many countries in transition would profit greatly from implementing a Reconciliation Barometer to measure movement toward or away from the consolidation of democratic reform.     

宽容：一个民主话题的证伪？

祛除社会主义和谐社会民主政治建设中宽容的抽象化超历史性,有助于贯彻“以人为本”的伦理旨趣和建构人民民主的和谐政治。     

跨文化交际中的语用失误及策略研究

随着跨国交际日益增多,跨文化交际中的语用失误问题突显,由于思维方向不同,文化背景差异、母语负迁移等原因造成交际的冲突和失败。跨文化交际的语用失误需要依靠交际双方的顺应和宽容,提高对目的语文化的领悟力和敏感性去解决。     

考虑噪声因子的参数和公差经济性设计策略

基于并行工程思想的参数和公差经济性设计,以成本为优化目标来确定最优的设计参数和公差范围.就并行参数和公差设计通过双响应曲面均值和方差模型实现其稳健性,本文提出了包含噪声因子的响应曲面建模策略,应用这一模型将参数和公差同时优化.该参数和公差经济性设计优化模型以质量损失和制造成本之和为目标函数,以过程方差置信域为约束.实例结果表明,在双响应曲面方法中,对均值设置偏倚量比其刚性约束具有较大的成本优势,在不降低稳健性的前提下引入偏倚可以降低成本.面向噪声因子的设计策略其成本低于基于双响应的有偏倚的设计,说明考虑噪声因子的设计是最有效的.     

玉米杂交种绵单一号及其亲本的耐旱性研究

对玉米杂交种绵单一号及其亲本81565的耐旱性进行了研究。结果表明：绵单一号及其亲本81565的产量性状抗旱系数分别为0．9425及0．9381，其ASI为1，耐旱性强，在西南山区玉米遗传育种及玉米大面积推广方面均具有重要价值。     

隐忍与抗争——司马迁研究系列论文之一

司马迁是一个不愿屈服于任何强权的压力、具有强烈反抗精神的人 ;是一个在困厄面前不愿低头 ,也不灰心丧气、甘受屈辱、承认失败 ,而是隐忍抗争、自强不息、发奋有为的伟丈夫。司马迁的抗争精神不仅表现在他对隐忍就功名者的赞颂上 ,也不仅表现在他自己隐忍就功名的实践上 ,而且还表现在对一切具有反抗精神的人的赞颂上。