农业保险的保障水平与财政补贴政策优化：一个文献综述 *

近年来，我国农业保险快速发展，在保费收入、保障范围和参保农户数量等指标上都取得了举世瞩目的成绩。与此同时，保障水平不高、农业保险“不解渴、不顶用”也一直是各方反映的焦点之一。本文结合了福利经济学和保险经济学中的相关理论，遵循“提高农业保险保障水平必须优化其财政补贴政策”的逻辑主线，对实施财政补贴政策是提升农业保险保障水平的前提条件、有效途径、有力举措和重要渠道进行了梳理和评析。最后，针对现有研究的不足，结合当前的时代背景，对该领域日后的研究重点进行了预测，并进一步探讨了其优化路径。     

铝合金抽油杆柱深抽的初步研究

机抽井深抽是恢复油井产量行之有效的措施，为解决钢质杆深抽时驴头负荷、曲柄扭矩和杆柱应力过大的问题，我国西部某油田提出了使用铝合金抽油杆的设想。本主根据抽油杆柱设计理论导出了深抽杆柱各级下入深度的公式；对不同工艺参数配合下的计算结果进行了对比分析，对铝合金抽油杆柱用于深抽的可行性进行了初步研究。     

地域文化在环境艺术设计中的应用与传承

为了更好地实现在环境艺术设计中传承地域文化，了解两者的基本定义是基础。从地域文化与环境艺术的概念出发，就地域文化对环境艺术表现与缺失进行深入分析，同时通过探析地域文化对环境艺术设计的现实意义，对环境设计中地域文化的应用与传承进行研究。     

In search of message design best practices: The Silver Anvil Award winners archive

We investigated specific award-winning public relations efforts to derive best practices that bridge industry practices with academic research and pedagogy. The data for this project were the winning entries for the annual Public Relations Society of America's (PRSA) Silver Anvil Award, which is considered the top award recognizing excellence in public relations. We found, however, that the archive of award winners does not provide sufficiently definitive information about what defines any public relations discourse genre or why any genre as used is “excellent.” This archival research provides us with a key rationale for employing rhetorical, narrative, and linguistic theories prospectively to guide public relations message design and planning, theories which hitherto have been used to judge campaigns post hoc or retrospectively.     

A Design of Attributes Double Sampling Plans for Three-class Products

In this article, a new attributes double sampling plan for three-class products (ADSPTP) is presented, and the corresponding operating characteristic function is constructed based on the given procedure of performing ADSPTP. Average sample numbers (ASN) for complete inspection and curtailed inspection of the second sample are derived and the extreme point is discussed on the three-dimensional ASN surface. In addition, the differences arising from different parameters are studied. Sampling plans are designed by a nonlinear optimization model. Finally, numerical examples and discussions are given to illustrate the obtained results, and tables of the designed plans under various conditions are provided.     

Deficit sustainability,and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000

In this paper, we provide a test of the sustainability of the Spanish government deficit over the period 1850–2000, emphasizing the role played by monetary and fiscal dominance in order to get fiscal solvency. Since the condition of fiscal solvency was satisfied, government deficit would have been sustainable along the sample period. In addition, the whole period can be characterized as one of fiscal dominance.     

Adaptive designs for single‐arm phase II trials in oncology

Clinical phase II trials in oncology are conducted to determine whether the activity of a new anticancer treatment is promising enough to merit further investigation. Two‐stage designs are commonly used for this situation to allow for early termination. Designs proposed in the literature so far have the common drawback that the sample sizes for the two stages have to be specified in the protocol and have to be adhered to strictly during the course of the trial. As a consequence, designs that allow a higher extent of flexibility are desirable. In this article, we propose a new adaptive method that allows an arbitrary modification of the sample size of the second stage using the results of the interim analysis or external information while controlling the type I error rate. If the sample size is not changed during the trial, the proposed design shows very similar characteristics to the optimal two‐stage design proposed by Chang et al. (Biometrics 1987; 43:865–874). However, the new design allows the use of mid‐course information for the planning of the second stage, thus meeting practical requirements when performing clinical phase II trials in oncology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Symmetrical design for symmetrical global sensitivity analysis of model output

Symmetrical global sensitivity analysis (SGSA) can help practitioners focusing on the symmetrical terms of inputs whose uncertainties have an impact on the model output, which allows reducing the complexity of the model. However, there remains the challenging problem of finding an efficient method to get symmetrical global sensitivity indices (SGSI) when the functional form of the symmetrical terms is unknown, including numerical and non-parametric situations. In this study, we propose a novel sampling plan, called symmetrical design, for SGSA. As a preliminary experiment for model feature extracting, such plan offers the virtue of run-size economy due to its closure respective to the given group. Using the design, we give estimation methods of SGSI as well as their asymptotic properties respectively for numerical model and non-parametrical model directly by the model outputs, and further propose a significance test for SGSI in non-parametric situation. A case study for a benchmark of GSA and a real data analysis show the effectiveness of the proposed design.     

服装系列设计方法之“抽象方程”论

通过长期的实践教学经验总结,将服装系列设计方法与数学方程联系在一起,形成服装系列设计的"抽象方程"理论,使服装系列设计具有了定向、定量、明确、有序的特征,力求寻找一条由简到繁、由易到难、循序渐进的学习实践方法,帮助服装设计初学者尽早摆脱设计瓶颈,步入设计正轨。     

Bayesian optimal sequential design for nonparametric regression via inhomogeneous evolutionary MCMC

We develop a novel computational methodology for Bayesian optimal sequential design for nonparametric regression. This computational methodology, that we call inhomogeneous evolutionary Markov chain Monte Carlo, combines ideas of simulated annealing, genetic or evolutionary algorithms, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Our framework allows optimality criteria with general utility functions and general classes of priors for the underlying regression function. We illustrate the usefulness of our novel methodology with applications to experimental design for nonparametric function estimation using Gaussian process priors and free-knot cubic splines priors.