Marginal likelihood estimation from the Metropolis output: tips and tricks for efficient implementation in generalized linear latent variable models

The marginal likelihood can be notoriously difficult to compute, and particularly so in high-dimensional problems. Chib and Jeliazkov employed the local reversibility of the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm to construct an estimator in models where full conditional densities are not available analytically. The estimator is free of distributional assumptions and is directly linked to the simulation algorithm. However, it generally requires a sequence of reduced Markov chain Monte Carlo runs which makes the method computationally demanding especially in cases when the parameter space is large. In this article, we study the implementation of this estimator on latent variable models which embed independence of the responses to the observables given the latent variables (conditional or local independence). This property is employed in the construction of a multi-block Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm that allows to compute the estimator in a single run, regardless of the dimensionality of the parameter space. The counterpart one-block algorithm is also considered here, by pointing out the difference between the two approaches. The paper closes with the illustration of the estimator in simulated and real-life data sets.     

Financing Innovation Development in the Context of Foreign Experience and Domestic Practice

The importance of innovation development is determined by the strategic role that true innovations play in the development of the state and the formation of a healthy, competitive economy. The organization of massive industrial production—which applies advanced technological achievements and science-intensive knowledge to form an infrastructure for innovation—should be a key component of the government’s strategic policy to develop the national economy. In Russia, the infrastructure for innovation is less developed than other industrialized countries. This article considers the consequences of this underdevelopment, and proposes several ways of financing basic and applied research on the basis of foreign precedent and domestic practice.     

西部地区工业竞争力综合评价

本文基于面板数据的因子分析,从经济效益、科技与人才、能源与环保三个维度对西部十一省工业综合竞争力进行评估。结果表明,西部地区工业竞争力总体水平不高且不平衡明显。其中四川、重庆、陕西、广西、云南是西部具有较强的工业竞争力的地区,而贵州、甘肃、内蒙古、新疆、青海、宁夏竞争力较弱。因此要有针对性地实施发展规划,以促进西部地区工业差距缩小与总体发展水平的提升。     

A bibliographic study of public relations in Spanish media and communication journals, 2000–2012

This study analyses the trends and visibility of research on public relations in the most relevant Spanish media and communication journals between the years 2000 and 2012. Bibliometrics and content analysis are used to show the reduced presence of articles on public relations in these publications. A trend towards gender parity in authorship is confirmed in the sample, as well as a plurality of universities and a variety of research themes. The study also proves preference for generic questions rather than for specialised topics. Another finding is that almost one fourth of the specific articles on this discipline do not contain the term “public relations”. This can hint towards the need to have a specific high-impact publication on public relations to bring together and provide visibility to the contributions of researchers in this field.     

Complex Latent Variable Modeling in Educational Assessment

Bayesian item response theory models have been widely used in different research fields. They support measuring constructs and modeling relationships between constructs, while accounting for complex test situations (e.g., complex sampling designs, missing data, heterogenous population). Advantages of this flexible modeling framework together with powerful simulation-based estimation techniques are discussed. Furthermore, it is shown how the Bayes factor can be used to test relevant hypotheses in assessment using the College Basic Academic Subjects Examination (CBASE) data.     

Local estimation for varying-coefficient models with longitudinal data

Varying-coefficient models are very useful for longitudinal data analysis. In this paper, we focus on varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data. We develop a new estimation procedure using Cholesky decomposition and profile least squares techniques. Asymptotic normality for the proposed estimators of varying-coefficient functions has been established. Monte Carlo simulation studies show excellent finite-sample performance. We illustrate our methods with a real data example.     

The duty to care and the need to split

This paper arises out of psychoanalytically oriented consultancy to teams of staff in the helping professions where there is a statutory 'duty to care'. It takes as its premise the seemingly paradoxical hypothesis that workers may need to split off part of their emotional experience in order to preserve their own mental health and provide reliable services to their clients. I argue that while a professional 'duty to care' requires us to be emotionally 'in touch', the demands of our clients together with the demands of the institutional response to the 'duty to care' cause us to split off parts of our awareness. I also argue that provided the splitting does not become extreme we are doing no more or less than the rest of society. In other words, there is a degree of 'normal splitting' which numbs our awareness of danger and destructiveness and seeks to protect us from too much anxiety and pain. Yet if professional workers are charged with the responsibility of assessing risk and acting accordingly for the protection of all concerned they need ways of being 'in touch' (re-integrating the splits) for some or enough of the time. Finally, I will describe ways of being 'in touch', illustrating the difficulty and the pain of re-integrating the splits and some of the insights that can arise out of this work with examples from my consultancy work.     

Efficiency measures of the Chinese commercial banking system using an additive two-stage DEA

Measuring and improving the efficiency of the Chinese commercial banking system has recently attracted increasing interest. Few studies, however, have adopted the two-stage network DEA to explore this issue in the Chinese context. Because the entire operational process of the banking system could be divided into two sub-processes (deposit producing and profit earning), the evaluation of the sub-process efficiencies could be used to assist in identifying the sources of the inefficiency of the entire banking system. In this study, we utilize the network DEA approach to disaggregate, evaluate and test the efficiencies of 16 major Chinese commercial banks during the third round of the Chinese banking reform period (2003–2011) with the variable returns to scale setting and the consideration of undesirable/bad output. The main findings of this study are as follows: (i) the two-stage DEA model is more effective than the conventional black box DEA model in identifying the inefficiency of banking system, and the inefficiency of the Chinese banking system primarily results from the inefficiency of its deposit producing sub-process; (ii) the overall efficiency of the Chinese banking system improves over the study period because of the reform; (iii) the state-owned commercial banks (SOBs) appear to be more overall efficient than the joint-stock commercial banks (JSBs) only in the pre-reform period, and the efficiency difference between the SOBs and the JSBs is reduced over the post-reform period; (iv) the disposal of non-performing loans (NPLs) from the Chinese banking system in general explains its efficiency improvement, and the joint-equity reform of the SOBs specifically increases their efficiencies.     

任务分解式教学法在检测技术实训中的应用

如何提高实践教学的教学质量是高校教育中亟待解决的问题。以安全检测技术实训为例,采用任务分解式教学方法对这一问题进行了探讨,在实训过程中,通过不断增加具体任务难度、分组打擂、优秀组讲解程序等方式,将安全检测技术各个部分内容有机结合起来,从而为实践教学环节提供一些有益的思路。     

Is prenatal sex selection associated with lower female child mortality?

I examine whether prenatal sex selection has substituted postnatal excess female mortality by analysing the dynamics of child sex ratios between 1980 and 2015 using country-level life table data. I decompose changes in child sex ratios into a ‘fertility’ component attributable to prenatal sex selection and a ‘mortality’ component attributable to sex differentials in postnatal survival. Although reductions in numbers of excess female deaths have accompanied increases in missing female births in all countries experiencing the emergence of prenatal sex selection, relative excess female mortality has persisted in some countries but not others. In South Korea, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, mortality reductions favouring girls accompanied increases in prenatal sex selection. In India, excess female mortality was much higher and largely stable as prenatal sex selection emerged, but slight reductions were seen in the 2000s. In China, although absolute measures showed reductions, relative excess female mortality persisted as prenatal sex selection increased.