论“於菟”的音乐与文化内涵——黄南州同仁县年都乎乡祭祀仪式音乐田野调查

青海是多民族聚居地区,一些地区至今仍然保存着先民的宗教仪式、仪轨,这种传承与沿袭下来的远古文化的"活化石"折射出一个民族的历史演变、文化传承、宗教信仰以及社会结构等等.从黄南藏族自治州同仁县年都乎乡年都乎村的"於菟"舞音乐中,我们可以更好地诠释原始祭祀乐舞中仪式音乐的本真和所蕴舍的文化内涵,以及阐释信仰、仪式、仪式音乐三者之间的互动关系.     

Markov regime switching in mean and in fractional integration parameter

We propose a specific general Markov-regime switching estimation both in the long memory parameter d and the mean of a time series. We employ Viterbi algorithm that combines the Viterbi procedures in two state Markov-switching parameter estimation. It is well-known that existence of mean break and long memory in time series can be easily confused with each other in most cases. Thus, we aim at observing the deviation and interaction of mean and d estimates for different cases. A Monte Carlo experiment reveals that the finite sample performance of the proposed algorithm for a simple mixture model of Markov-switching mean and d changes with respect to the fractional integrating parameters and the mean values for the two regimes.     

Role of stylized features in constructing better estimators

This article discusses the role played by stylized features of financial time series in constructing better estimators for the model parameters. We study in detail one such estimator for the transition probabilities of a simple regime switching model. The estimator is based on the squared autocovariances of the time series, which has been discussed in several empirical studies of economic and financial time series. The effectiveness of this estimator in improving the estimation accuracy is investigated, using both finite sample and asymptotic computations. We also report simulation results to confirm our findings and to extend our conclusions over a bigger region of the parameter space.     

Detecting structural change with heteroskedasticity

The hypothesis of structural stability that the regression coefficients do not change over time is central to all applications of linear regression models. It is rather surprising that existing theory as well as practice focus on testing for structural change under homoskedasticity – that is, regression coefficients may change, but the variances remain the same. Since structural change can, and often does, involve changes in variances, this is a puzzling gap in the literature. Our main focus in this paper is to utilize a newly developed test (MZ) by Maasoumi et al. (2010 Maasoumi, E., Zaman, A., Ahmed, M. (2010). Tests for structural change, aggregation, and homogeneity. Econ Model. 27(6):1382–1391.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) that tests simultaneously for break in regression coefficients as well as in variance. Currently, the sup F test is most widely used for structural change. This has certain optimality properties shown by Andrews (1993 Andrews, D.W.K. (1993). Test for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica. 61(4):821–856.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). However, this test assumes homoskedasticity across the structural change. We introduce the sup MZ test which caters to unknown breakpoints, and also compare it to the sup F. Our Monte Carlo results show that sup MZ test incurs only a low cost in case of homoskedasticity while having hugely better performance in case of heteroskedasticity. The simulation results are further supported by providing a real-world application. In real-world datasets, we find that structural change often involves heteroskedasticity. In such cases, the sup F test can fail to detect structural breaks and give misleading results, while the sup MZ test works well. We conclude that the sup MZ test is superior to current methodology for detecting structural change.     

Identification-robust moment-based tests for Markov switching in autoregressive models

ABSTRACT

This paper develops tests of the null hypothesis of linearity in the context of autoregressive models with Markov-switching means and variances. These tests are robust to the identification failures that plague conventional likelihood-based inference methods. The approach exploits the moments of normal mixtures implied by the regime-switching process and uses Monte Carlo test techniques to deal with the presence of an autoregressive component in the model specification. The proposed tests have very respectable power in comparison with the optimal tests for Markov-switching parameters of Carrasco et al. (2014 Carrasco, M., Hu, L., Ploberger, W. (2014). Optimal test for Markov switching parameters. Econometrica 82(2):765–784.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and they are also quite attractive owing to their computational simplicity. The new tests are illustrated with an empirical application to an autoregressive model of USA output growth.     

Establishing a new scopic regime: the new landscape painting of Mao’s era

ABSTRACT

After 1949, with ‘serving the people’ established as the basic guideline of art, the reform of traditional landscape painting, which had been appropriated by the cultural elites for thousands of years, was put on the agenda as well. Beginning from the early of 1950s, there were continual debates on the reform of traditional Chinese painting within the art field, through which many artists gradually reached a consensus on the development direction of Chinese painting. At the same time, stimulated by the large-scale xiesheng movement sponsored by the government, Chinese landscape painting changed dramatically in subject, theme, and brushstroke technique, and developed a new style which has its own signifying system. Blending both Chinese and western drawing skills, the new landscape painting successfully created a unique scopic regime, which can establish an organic relationship between personal aesthetic experience and collective historical experience. As a prominent cultural achievement of Mao’s era, the new landscape painting embodies the cultural politics and the technologies of the self at that time.     

论汉代政权对民间信仰的多重政策

民间信仰是中国传统文化的重要组成部分,也是俗文化的核心。针对民间自发形成的信仰与崇拜,汉代政权采取多重政策,或引导支持,或借鉴利用,或排斥打击,主要取决于其是否与官方信仰及主流文化相抵触,是否从根本上影响到社会秩序和百姓生产生活。不管官方态度如何,作为一种强大的民间力量,民间信仰以其特有的方式参与政治生活,与官方政权相互影响、相互补充,形成既配合又抗衡的互动局面,并以顽强的生命力传承、延续和发展。     

加入WTO后中国法律服务贸易制度的完善

法律服务是一种特殊形式的商业服务,法律服务实际上主要是律师所提供的服务。中国服务业发展存在严重的不均衡状态,根据WTO的有关原则,发展中国家的缔约国可享有分阶段、分程序地逐渐开放其本国内的服务市场的权利,但必须尽以法律法规的形式通知其他缔约国的义务,所以,中国应相应调整、补充现有的法律服务规则,将从WTO中受到的相关法律服务优惠待遇用法律法规的形式固定下来,以便在一个有序的法律环境下,发展自己的法律服务业。     

商丘农区环境污染及治理的思考

河南省商丘属于典型的黄淮平原农区,随着国家加快新农村建设步伐,农村经济发展迅速,但同时环境污染也开始显现。目前污染来源主要集中于农业生产、农民生活、乡镇企业和养殖业等方面,污染具有分散性、隐蔽性和渐进性的特征,治理难度较大,解决农村环境污染问题必须从提高思想认识、健全制度政策、采取得力措施等多方着手,进行综合整治。提高保护生态环境的思想认识,深入贯彻落实科学发展观;强化农村环境立法,健全农村生态环境保护制度政策;大力发展循环型农业,减少农业生产污染;全面深入实施中央生态家园富民工程,减轻农业生产和农民生活污染;在城乡一体化建设中突出环境保护规划和实施。     

中共六大苏维埃政权建设中群众思想的当代价值

中共六大在探索苏维埃政权建设的过程中,更加注重工农群众主体地位的巩固和能动作用的发挥,较为系统地论述了政权建设中的群众思想。其着重从四个方面加以阐述,形成了以实现好、维护好和发展好最广大人民群众的根本利益为政权建设的根本出发点和落脚点;尊重和激发人民群众的主体创造潜能为推动政权建设的内生动力;解决好人民群众最直接、最现实、最关心的民生问题为政权建设的着力点;始终坚持群众思想、践行群众路线为政权建设的根本路线方针等为主体内容的群众思想,对当代政权建设中的群众路线实践具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。