青海高校开展民族传统体育教学之浅见

青海民族传统体育历史悠久,内容丰富,开展广泛,自古以来是各族人民用以健身、防身和精神寄托的一种手段。高校是文化传播的重要基地,充分发挥学校载体之优势,是弘扬民族传统体育文化,全面推进素质教育的实施重要途径。     

Parameter estimation of Lindley step stress model with independent competing risk under type 1 censoring

Abstract

In literature, Lindley distribution is considered as an alternative to exponential distribution to fit lifetime data. In the present work, a Lindley step-stress model with independent causes of failure is proposed. An algorithm to generate random samples from the proposed model under type 1 censoring scheme is developed. Point and interval estimation of the model parameters is carried out using maximum likelihood method and percentile bootstrap approach. To understand the effectiveness of the resulting estimates, numerical illustration is provided based on simulated and real-life data sets.     

“互联网+”时代高校教育与管理的变革与展望

“互联网+”时代高校传统教育与管理面临着前所未有的新形势和新挑战,在“互联网+”和高校信息化建设的时代背景下,高校必须要把握变革机遇、重塑管理理念观念、树立互联网思维,准确理解“互联网+”校园的理念和内涵,将新一代信息技术充分应用并深度融入高校教育教学、管理服务中,以构建智能化、智慧型校园为切入点,推进高校信息化校园建设,促进我国高等教育转型升级和一流大学、一流学科建设.     

Analysis of some ruin-related quantities in a Markov-modulated risk model

In this paper, we study the joint Laplace transform and probability generating function of some random quantities that occur in each environment state by the time of ruin in a Markov-modulated risk process. These quantities include the duration spent in each state, the number of claims and the aggregate amount of claims that occurred in each state by the time of ruin. Explicit formulae for the joint transforms, given the initial surplus, and the initial and terminal environment states, are expressed in terms of a matrix version of the scale function. Moments and covariances of these ruin-related quantities are obtained and numerical illustrations are presented. The joint transform of the duration spent in each state, the number of claims, and the aggregate amount of claims that occurred in each state by the time the surplus attains a certain level are also investigated.     

On conditional risk estimation considering model risk

Usually, parametric procedures used for conditional variance modelling are associated with model risk. Model risk may affect the volatility and conditional value at risk estimation process either due to estimation or misspecification risks. Hence, non-parametric artificial intelligence models can be considered as alternative models given that they do not rely on an explicit form of the volatility. In this paper, we consider the least-squares support vector regression (LS-SVR), weighted LS-SVR and Fixed size LS-SVR models in order to handle the problem of conditional risk estimation taking into account issues of model risk. A simulation study and a real application show the performance of proposed volatility and VaR models.     

Gambling Behavior of Student-Athletes and a Student Cohort: What are the Odds?

This study investigated the prevalence of gambling, gambling related NCAA violations, and disordered gambling in student-athletes (n = 736) with a comparison cohort of students (n = 1,071) at four universities. Student-athletes reported similar rates of gambling frequency, use of a bookmaker, and disordered gambling as students. After accounting for demographic differences, student-athletes were less likely to engage in sports wagering than students. Several risk factors for disordered gambling were identified, including being male and reporting at least one parent with a history of gambling problems. These findings suggest that problems associated with gambling are a university-wide issue with student-athletes meriting additional attention because of implications for the integrity of intercollegiate sports. Improved prevention and intervention efforts for collegiate gambling are recommended.     

媒介发展背景下收视注意力变化及其对电视剧创作的影响

媒介发展为大众传播带来巨大变化,影响了收视方式,也影响了观众对电视剧的注意力投入。从传统媒体时代到移动互联网时代,观众的注意力呈现出与收视氛围、收视状态变化相对应的特征变化——投入程度变深,投入时间缩短。观众的注意力从更换率低的、长时间的、无互动性的内容转移到更换频繁的、短时间的、有互动性的、社交式的内容上。在此情境下,电视剧创作必然呈现符合观众与媒介间注意力法则的新趋势——内容长度缩短,情节强度增强,以及对互动性进行一系列探索。     

Child protection decision-making

The effects of interagency collaboration on risk assessment in child protection practice were analysed in respect of the decision-making processes in child death inquiries. Universal features in the assessment of risk as identified in psychological literature were applied; in particular, the concepts of ‘groupthink’, the ‘certainty effect’ and ‘group polarization’. It is suggested that case conference decisions are inherently more risky than those taken by professionals with individual responsibility because of the way in which cases are framed in terms of losses.     

Demand for decision autonomy and the desire to avoid responsibility in risky environments: Experimental evidence

This paper experimentally studies individuals’ willingness to pay for the authority to make risky decisions for themselves, and the willingness to take responsibility for others, as primary determinants of leadership willingness. We consider a setup involving a pair of individuals, where one individual is designated to make both parties’ decisions by default. Depending on treatment, either party can express a willingness to pay to change this situation. If one’s willingness to pay to make her own decision herself is positive (negative), we interpret it as a demand for autonomy (a desire to delegate). On the flip side, if one’s willingness to pay to avoid making a decision on behalf of another person is positive (negative), we interpret it as a desire to avoid responsibility (a demand for authority). We find that on average, individuals are willing to pay positive amounts of money to make their decisions themselves, and incur positive but smaller opportunity costs for the right to make decisions for others. Certain individual and contextual characteristics emerge as important predictors. Notably, (1) men are more likely to demand both autonomy and authority at the same time, (2) individuals with other regarding preferences are more likely to pay to avoid taking responsibility for others’ decisions when the probability of loss is high. Exploring differences between individuals’ own decisions and the decisions they make on behalf of others, we find that subjects with other-regarding preferences tend to “cautious-shift” when making decisions on behalf of others. Also, we find that individuals who would like to avoid responsibility also tend to “shift” their decisions when put in a decision-making role. The results have implications for the allocation of decision-making authority in pairs and leadership.     

目前遗传资源和传统知识法律保护机制国际探索的成就与不足——评CBD事先知情同意机制和FAO农民权机制

传统知识是长期以来传统部族在长期的生产生活实践中创造出来的知识、技术、经验的总称,是一种知识形态和知识产品。CBD等国际组织对遗传资源及有关传统知识的保护进行了多年的探索,在保护机制上取得了一定的创新。CBD开创的事先知情同意机制和FAO开创的农民权机制为其代表。两种机制均在物权层面设计了遗传资源及有关传统知识的保护规则,但前者具有较强的保障力,后者基本上还是一种道义意义上的权利。但只有提供知识产权保护方能充分实现传统部族在传统知识上的利益。