湖北自贸试验区的制度创新:实践特征、理论内涵与政策启示

建设湖北自贸试验区是新发展阶段全面深化改革、扩大开放的系统性探索和战略实践,从动态演进论与制度变迁、制度经济学的交易成本论以及公共经济学的公共物品供需视角,对自贸试验区制度创新的理论逻辑与实践意义予以系统研究。研究发现,湖北自贸试验区围绕加快转变政府职能、深化投资领域改革、促进贸易转型升级、推动金融开放创新、创新驱动发展以及服务国家战略等方面展开了一系列制度创新实践,逐步形成由浅入深、由线下向线上线下协同发展、由共性领域向特色领域逐步延伸、从前项到末端统筹安排、借鉴与创新并举以及集中推广与自主运用相结合的改革创新发展路径。研究认为,推动湖北自贸试验区的制度创新,充分发挥其在破解地方深层次结构性发展矛盾和扩展增长赋能空间上的功能内涵,需要在顶层制度设计方面,加强与国内国际双循环新发展格局相互衔接,通过完善监管体系设计、提升行政服务效率来转变政府监管职能和健全市场监管,构建由法律法规、行政规章、规范性文件共同组成的、与国际规范兼容协调的法制框架和政策体系,统筹为国家试制度、出经验的全局性战略目标与谋求为地区经济发展注活力、添动力的局部性现实需求之间的激励导向; 在具体实施路径层面,持续优化开放平台、营商环境和加强口岸智慧功能建设,着力培育和强化大城市、大枢纽、大口岸、大平台、大产业以及一流的营商环境等,构建开放型经济新体制和多维量化评估指标体系,实现自贸试验区制度创新实践探索、经验成效审视验证、赋能社会经济发展以及长远建设规划目标的有机协调统一,助力湖北建设新时代内陆开放新高地。     

Curved Chaotic Map Time Series Models and Their Stochastic Reversals

This paper considers two types of chaotic map time series models, including the well-known tent, logistic and binary-shift maps as special cases; these are called curved tent and curved binary families. Deterministic behaviour is investigated by invariant distributions, Lyapunov exponents, and by serial dependency. Stochastic time reversal of the families is shown to produce models which have a broader range of stochastic and chaotic properties than their deterministic counterparts. The marginal distributions may have concentrations and restricted supports and are shown to be a non-standard class of invariant distribution. Dependenc y is generally weaker with the reversed stochastic models. The work gives a broad statistical account of deterministic and stochastically reversed map models, such as are emerging in random number generation, communica tion systems and cryptography     

北宋皇帝葬礼探考(上)

自汉迄唐,皇帝死后葬期长短不一,北宋一改旧观,恢复了“天子七月而葬”的儒家礼制;山陵役夫情况,正史中讳莫如深,作者从《金石萃编》等书中找出了有力证据;对山陵耗费,文章特别注意到“间接花费”和“山陵维护”等为常人所忽略的问题;嗣君为什么大建山陵?本文亦有自己的见解。     

Adaptive Build-up and Breakdown of Trust: An Agent Based Computational Approach

This article employs Agent-Based Computational Economics (ACE) to investigate whether, and under what conditions, trust is viable in markets. The emergence and breakdown of trust is modeled in a context of multiple buyers and suppliers. Agents develop trust in a partner as a function of observed loyalty. They select partners on the basis of their trust in the partner and potential profit, with adaptive weights. On the basis of realized profits, they adapt the weight they attach to trust relative to profitability, and their own trustworthiness, modeled as a threshold of defection. Trust and loyalty turn out to be viable under fairly general conditions.     

基于时间特性的中国股市交易集群性特征的研究

本文以自回归条件久期模型(ACD)为基础,选择标志我国股市交易集群性特征的代理变量,建立了刻画该特征的实证模型,检验了我国上海证券所个股的交易过程中集群性问题.实证结果表明,我国证券市场交易过程中的集群性是由于以私人信息为基础的信息交易所引起的,私人信息的进入导致了证券市场在时间方向表现出更大的波动性.     

基于提前期的多阶通用件库存模型

针对单个企业内部应用通用件的环境,在假定一个多阶生产系统的基础上,对应用通用件的库存量水平及其成本进行了分析,建立了多阶通用件库存模型,提出通过对采用通用件和不采用通用件的成本差异的比较,来决策多阶生产系统中在哪一阶工序采用通用件,并求解出每一阶工序优化的基本库存水平。     

基于SCD模型的金融超高频数据信息含量研究

针对随机波动条件持续期模型(SCD模型)对于金融超高频数据的模拟优势,采用股票交易的分笔数据,在模型中引入消息指标变量、交易量和买卖价差三类微观结构变量,通过分析价格持续期与这些结构变量之间的相关性,以研究价格形成过程中的信息传递过程。研究结果表明:利好消息通常导致交易强度增加,利空消息通常会导致交易持续期延长,价格变化对交易持续期造成的影响有限;小盘股买卖价差影响后续价格交易持续期,但大盘股的影响并不明显;交易量的增加具有信息含量。     

清洁提单保函与交易安全研究

托运人向承运人开具清洁提单保函、承运人向托运人签发清洁提单的做法在当前国际货物海运中极为普遍。国际公约、国际组织规则、各国法律以及司法实践对清洁提单保函的性质、效力等仍存在诸多争议。在国际货物海运中,因清洁提单保函引发的纠纷层出不穷。尝试厘清清洁提单保函的性质和效力,探讨清洁提单保函无效的法律后果及其对交易安全的影响,提出针对性的保护方式,旨为应对清洁提单保函带来的问题提供参考。     

An Individual Mixed‐Evaluation Method for Career Intervention

Economic issues linked to career counseling are a cause for concern to policy makers in developed countries because they expect career practitioners to provide evidence of the efficiency of career counseling interventions. The aim of this study was to test an individual evaluation method mixing time series (outcomes) and life narrative (processes). The method used 5 items related to 1 client's career decision self‐efficacy and studied the evolution of those items throughout the intervention of 1 career counselor (43 days). Changepoint analysis helped in identifying the changes that have to be taken into account for time series and which are contextualized in the client's verbatim analysis. This mixed method highlighted that the career counselor's intervention increased the client's career decision self‐efficacy. Practitioners could use the methodology proposed in this article to evaluate their interventions. They could also report their practice to clients, employers, and decision makers.     

考虑零件三维装载约束带时间窗的循环取货路径问题研究

为提高车辆的可装载性,对考虑三维装载约束带时间窗的循环取货路径问题进行研究.在给定假设与约束条件的前提下,建立该问题的多目标数学模型,并设计用于问题求解的基于改进策略的启发式算法.数值实例的计算结果表明,该算法可有效求解考虑零件三维装载约束带时间窗的循环取货路径问题;且与时间窗优先法的求解结果相比,可大幅提高车辆的可装载性,并能有效减少不同车型车辆的投入数量.