Extreme-value analysis of canadian wind speeds

Estimates of extreme winds are essential for engineering design, but in preparing such estimates major statistical issues are encountered. In this case study, the analysts were provided with hourly readings on wind speed, wind direction, and barometric pressure at five Canadian stations for observation periods ranging over several recent decades. Their assignment was to calculate point and interval estimates of 10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-year return values (i.e., upper fractiles) for the wind speeds at these stations.     

Bayesian break-point forecasting in parallel time series,with application to university admissions

A regular supply of applicants to Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario is provided by 65 high schools. Each high school can be characterized by a series of grading standards which change from year to year. To aid admissions decisions, it is desirable to forecast the current year's grading standards for all 65 high schools using grading standards estimated from past year's data. We develop and apply a Bayesian break-point time-series model that generates forecasts which involve smoothing across time for each school and smoothing across schools. “Break point” refers to a point in time which divides the past into the “old past” and the “recent past” where the yearly observations in the recent past are exchangeable with the observations in the year to be forecast. We show that this model works fairly well when applied to 11 years of Queen's University data. The model can be applied to other data sets with the parallel time-series structure and short history, and can be extended in several ways to more complicated structures.     

关于基数函数qL(X)和sqL(X)的进一步结果

本文改进了文[5]的14个主要结果。特别是本文定理1、定理9、定理10及定理12等分别改进了国外截止目前的最佳不等式:拓广后的Arhangelskii不等式,Sapirouskii不等式和Hajnal-Tuhasz不等式及其它一些较好的不等式。本文定理8、9挖掘了sqL(X)的新的更深刻的特性,从而较大幅度地改进了[5]的对应结果。     

一般动力学系统在相空间的Noether定理及其逆定理

根据一般动力学系统在相空间的作用积分在无穷小群变换下的变换性质,分别建立起完整和非完整非保守系统的Noether定理和逆定理.由给出的例子表明,在相空间中可以呈现出动力学系统新的对称性.     

Sequential Procedure For Fixed Accuracy Estimation of the Population Size in Recapture Sampling

A sequential procedure is constructed to provide a fixed‐accuracy estimator for the number of faults in a system. This paper focuses on the case when faults are homogeneous. However, the method can be adapted to other models by choosing a more robust estimator. The accuracy of the estimator depends on the failure intensity, the length of testing period and the total number of faults in the system. Simulations illustrate the performance of the proposed procedure. The method is applied to an information system failure dataset.     

文明整合与制度构建:唐代文明产生的背景

魏晋时期的五胡乱华局面,对自先秦以来就形成的中国传统的社会伦理观念、传统典籍解释等方面产生了巨大的冲击,佛教等新思想的输入和传播,也对改变传统的社会结构、社会意识发挥了明显的作用,使中华文明进行了一次大的整合,从而在人才、制度、社会思维等方面为唐王朝开创辉煌提供了不可急就的发展基础。所以,唐代的辉煌一方面是由于唐政府政策的得力与适宜,更重要的是,唐政府正好赶上了中华文明自身整合结束后的一个强有力的活跃期,从而历史地成就了其绚丽的辉煌。     

Dynamic sampling plans in on-line control charts

Three simple dynamic sampling plans for detecting the change point are investigated in the discrete-time case. The first is a two-rate sampling CUSUM procedure. The second is a two-rate sampling Shiryayev-Roberts procedure. The third is a periodic sequential testing procedure. Two problems are discussed. First, simple design methods are provided for practical use. Second, a comparison between the three plans is made in the continuous-time case, which shows that by properly choosing the design parameters, the three plans can be made equally efficient in certain senses.     

THE COMMUNITIES WE ARE REGAINING BUT NEED TO LOSE

Michael Young and Gerard Lemos’ (1997 Young, M. and Lemos, G. 1997. The communities we have lost and can regain, London: Lemos and Crane.  [Google Scholar]) text The communities we have lost and can regain has had a substantial influence on New Labour's communitarian thinking. This paper critically examines a specific aspect of New Labour's communitarian agenda, namely, its use of public housing policy to rebuild communities in order to combat social exclusion on so-called ‘sink estates’. The paper is presented in four main parts. The first part of the paper discusses how, why and to what extent ‘community’ has been lost, with particular reference to public housing estates. The second part examines why community rebuilding is now seen as the solution to the problems caused by the loss of community on public housing estates and, to this end, pays particular attention to the communitarian values that underpin New Labour's third way. The third part of the paper examines some empirical studies of community in order to highlight the key characteristics of ‘community’ and thereby develop a critical understanding of what New Labour are currently seeking to achieve. The fourth part of the paper juxtaposes this discussion of ‘community’ with a discussion of emerging socio-economic trends that have been identified in the literature on late modernity and globalization. By highlighting emerging socio-economic trends such as residential mobility into the community debate, the paper concludes by criticizing the policy of community building as ‘good for you’. Our key point is that community building restricts the residential mobility of poorer households and exacerbates (rather than combats) their social exclusion because a key indicator of social inclusion is their ability to take advantage of the social, cultural and economic opportunities that so often exist ‘elsewhere’.     

论天台宗的圆融三谛说

圆融三谛说是天台宗圆融思想的重要内容。从内容上看,圆融三谛是即空即假即中三谛,它们之间平等、相即、互具;从归属上看,它属于佛教真理观的范畴,表达的是诸法实相的重要内容;从它与其他天台思想的联系看,三谛与三智、三观为同一层次中三个互为关联的概念;从方法的角度看,证悟圆融三谛的关键在于体认一念无明法性心;从区别的角度看,天台的圆融和华严思想的圆融两者在内涵上是有差异的。