借贷能力、风险收益与新型农业经营主体经营效率

通过构建一个新型农业经营主体与金融组织讨价还价的理论模型,在纳什议价均衡的基础上分析新型经营主体最优产出水平与其借贷能力、风险收益的关系。基于中国12省的微观调查数据,采用双边随机边界检验,对理论模型进行了实证研究,结果表明：借贷能力不足是新型经营主体经营无效率的主导因素,最终使平均净效率下降了8.13%;正规金融机构和民间借贷均对新型经营主体的经营效率有显著影响,并且民间借贷对经营效率的影响更强;新型经营主体的负责人能力、盈利能力、组织化程度等,与其经营效率呈正相关关系。提出应通过金融体系创新、完善民间借贷法规等途径,降低新型农业经营主体的融资约束,提高其负责人的经营水平,加强新型经营主体的组织化程度。     

Comment

We propose a sequential test for predictive ability for recursively assessing whether some economic variables have explanatory content for another variable. In the forecasting literature it is common to assess predictive ability by using “one-shot” tests at each estimation period. We show that this practice leads to size distortions, selects overfitted models and provides spurious evidence of in-sample predictive ability, and may lower the forecast accuracy of the model selected by the test. The usefulness of the proposed test is shown in well-known empirical applications to the real-time predictive content of money for output and the selection between linear and nonlinear models.     

(Un)expected exception: validating acquiescent response style factor in the Czech Republic

ABSTRACT

This study explores the acquiescent response style (ARS) among respondents in the Czech Republic. To analyse ARS, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was employed and the response style (RS) was modelled as a latent variable. The RS factor in the CFA model must be validated by its relationship to education and age, i.e. proxies of cognitive ability. The two studies presented in this article use large amount of data as all available balanced batteries of items were analysed. In Study 1, the RS factor showed no correlation with age/education in most of the models. Study 2 employed additional measures of cognitive ability and education and confirmed the overall absence of the relationship. Author concludes that the modelled RS factor then cannot be considered the ARS and deduces that the most likely explanation of the identified systematic error variance is the respondents’ carelessness manifested by automatically choosing the extreme agreement, or choosing the first presented answer as a result of memory effect.     

Social work stories: situated views and larger visions in disciplinary scholarship and education

ABSTRACT

This paper is about the changing imaginations of social work in an increasingly entangled world. It is also about the ways in which literatures shared across time and space encourage us to identify with larger collectivities. My central argument is that if social work is to find a larger vision in the wake of the failure of a range of modern progress narratives, we must engage differently with the challenge posed by multiplying and sometimes conflicting knowledge communities. Thinking with contemporary debates in transdisciplinary critical social theory, I nominate and explore a number of alternative heuristics—‘generational problematic,’ ‘translational space,’ and ‘imagined communities’—in support of future work on the uneven temporal and spatial communities of affiliation that reproduce and change what social work is, or could be, about. I conclude with theoretical suggestions, and some thoughts toward how social work education might better support incoming generations to locate themselves within the broader life-course of the discipline and profession.     

大数据驱动下的政府治理机制研究——基于2020年后精准扶贫领域的返贫阻断分析

大数据时代已经到来，大数据驱动下的政府治理发生何种改变，目前相关研究较少。当前政府治理的考验集中在2020年实现全面脱贫后精准扶贫领域的返贫阻断。文章以该领域为切入点，探索大数据驱动下政府治理的内在机制。研究发现：大数据背景下，政府治理能力催生出新的核心能力，即数据治理能力。数据治理能力驱动下，政府治理主体多元化有利于实现政府治理资源的宽范围、精准化动员；政府治理方式实现经验式决策向数据化决策转变，有利于实现政府资源的高效率和公平配置；政府治理客体的精准识别，有利于政府资源的精准化和最优化运用。但是客观上必须具备数据治理能力，主观上必须按照大数据驱动的要求重构政府治理体系（包括治理主体、治理方式和治理客体），才能真正实现以数据治理驱动政府治理，进而提高政府治理能力的目的。而数据治理能力客观上也加速了政府治理体系的重构，进而加快了政府治理能力的提升，并最终提高政府治理绩效。在对标大数据应用不同阶段分析常规式返贫阻断和大数据返贫阻断的不足和差距的基础上，笔者提出重构政府治理体系和提升数据治理能力等针对性建议。     

管理团队认知能力、行为整合对决策效果的影响机制研究

现有文献在研究团队决策效果的影响因素时,大部分关注年龄、学历等因素,较少关注非人口统计学特征。根据现有研究结果构建团队认知能力与决策效果的关系模型,利用结构方程模型进行实证研究并指出:团队认知能力的两要素能提升团队决策效果;团队行为整合被看作是团队运作过程的核心,对决策效果产生一定的正向作用,即团队的行为整合程度越高,其决策效果越好;验证行为整合在团队认知能力与决策效果之间具有中介作用。旨为丰富高阶理论、揭示认知能力对决策效果的作用提供借鉴。     

基于OBE理念的学前教育专业实践教学体系构建与实施

高校学前教育专业实践教学在教师教育改革、学前教育改革以及师范类专业认证深入开展的时代背景下,面临实践教学培养目标不清晰、实践教学内容滞后于幼儿园实际、实践教学环节缺乏整合以及实践教学评价随意单一等问题,基于OBE“产出导向”理念,构建以培养学生保教实践能力为核心的实践教学目标体系、“三级循环式”内容体系和保障体系。在实施过程中,倡导理论教学与实践教学并行、加强校地深度合作和开展专业实践活动,以期促进学生保教实践能力的提升和学前教育专业实践教学效果的提高。     

Digital identities – overcoming visual bias through virtual embodiment

ABSTRACT

This study sheds new light on the role of identity in virtual environments when virtual representation of self is in support of disabled individuals and the potential impact of their virtual identity on work opportunities. It is widely understood that individuals who live with disability often experience a lifetime of bullying, exclusion, marginalization and rejection. They often experience workplace bias and discrimination. Yet, when they can create an identity and experience embodiment in virtual environments, the results can be extraordinarily powerful – even life-changing. This research builds on nearly a decade of ethnographic research in 3D online immersive social virtual worlds; seven of those years working with disability communities to answer the following: RQ1: In a virtual world where one can choose any avatar form, how does that visual sense of self-representation influence one’s ability to gain access to a social network, to be a leader in that network, and to find work? RQ2: How does realism in representation influence work experiences in these digital worlds? The results reveal the importance of choice in online representation of avatars in creating work and online social engagement. Implications contribute to our understanding of visual bias in the workplace and how emerging virtual reality technologies may open new avenues for meaningful work and social interactions for people with disabilities.     

儿童社会情绪学习：Strong Kids系列课程介绍及启示

Strong Kids系列课程是儿童社会情绪学习的经典课程之一，包括5个相对独立的版本，具有扎实的理论基础，是一项方便、经济且见效快的短期预防干预项目，能有效地预防和减少儿童的情绪行为障碍，提升儿童的社会情绪能力。该课程的设计、内容及形式等都值得为他人所借鉴。为此，笔者通过对Strong Kids系列课程的理论基础、主要内容及应用的阐述，探讨该课程的优势及对我国儿童社会情绪学习课程开发与实施的启示。     

提高矮个篮球中锋的进攻能力

自从篮球运动在世界上广泛开展以来,中锋的位置,一直被高大队员所占据。作者针对某些球队因中锋身材不够高而影响内线攻击力等情况,提出自己的观点,特别指出,在训练中,中锋在思想作风、技术、战术及心理方面所要着重解决的问题和方法,