Binary probability maps using a hidden conditional autoregressive Gaussian process with an application to Finnish common toad data

The Finnish common toad data of Heikkinen and Hogmander are reanalysed using an alternative fully Bayesian model that does not require a pseudolikelihood approximation and an alternative prior distribution for the true presence or absence status of toads in each 10 km×10 km square. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to obtain posterior probability estimates of the square-specific presences of the common toad and these are presented as a map. The results are different from those of Heikkinen and Hogmander and we offer an explanation in terms of the prior used for square-specific presence of the toads. We suggest that our approach is more faithful to the data and avoids unnecessary confounding of effects. We demonstrate how to extend our model efficiently with square-specific covariates and illustrate this by introducing deterministic spatial changes.     

农户土地流转有助于农户群体“提低扩中”吗?

提高中低收入农户群体的收入水平是缩小居民收入差距、实现共同富裕的关键任务。利用CFPS 2018数据,使用基于RIF的ITE模型等计量方法进行分析研究发现：(1)土地流转的增收效应具有非对称性,转出土地的中低收入农户能显著增收,但转入土地的中低收入农户增收不明显;(2)东部和西部地区转出土地的中低收入农户收入增长显著;(3)土地流转(尤其是转出)有助于缩小农户间收入差距、优化农户群体的收入分配结构。实证结果稳健地说明农户土地流转对实现农户群体“提低扩中”目标具有积极意义,在此基础上提出在西部和东中部欠发达农村地区,鼓励和支持中低收入农户流转土地,以增加其兼业和非农收入等政策建议。     

浅谈预测对大学英语听力教学的启示

传统的英语听力教学只是拘泥于“放录音,对答案”,结果学生睡倒一片。所以在听力课堂上,要对学生渗透一些听力技巧,使听力教学能够达到一个良好的效果。预测是一个很重要的听力技巧,如果学生能掌握预测方法,并且在课堂上利用这些方法,他们的听力技能能够得到明显的提高。     

浅析无过错输血感染的处理现状及完善

由于血液检测存在"漏检率"和"窗口期",即使血站和医疗机构严格按规定采、供血和输血,极少部分患者仍会因输血而感染传染性疾病。目前解决这一社会问题的办法还不完善,还不能有效地保护患者、血站和医疗机构的合法权益。文章提出进一步完善社会保障机制和推进输血保险制度,以便更好地解决因无过错感染而引起的医患纠纷。     

钱基博文史教育述论

钱基博是我国现代国学大家,毕生从事大学文史教育,为祖国培养了大批德能双修的优秀人才,不仅给后人留下了丰厚的学术文化遗产,而且其教育思想和教学方法仍然值得当代殊为困境的文史教育借鉴。     

动态性与静态性:教学目标的确定及实现——以“教育研究方法”课程为例

教学目标的存在有应然状态和实然状态之分。"教育研究方法"课程的静态目标应具体体现为"涵养科学精神、问题意识的形成、基本研究技能的掌握和有效获取文献信息",这些目标在实现过程中必然存在着动态性选择。     

宏观经济学教学方法探讨

本文分析宏观经济学的自身特点,并据此提出相应的有效的教学方法。     

Treatment Choice With Trial Data: Statistical Decision Theory Should Supplant Hypothesis Testing

Abstract

A central objective of empirical research on treatment response is to inform treatment choice. Unfortunately, researchers commonly use concepts of statistical inference whose foundations are distant from the problem of treatment choice. It has been particularly common to use hypothesis tests to compare treatments. Wald’s development of statistical decision theory provides a coherent frequentist framework for use of sample data on treatment response to make treatment decisions. A body of recent research applies statistical decision theory to characterize uniformly satisfactory treatment choices, in the sense of maximum loss relative to optimal decisions (also known as maximum regret). This article describes the basic ideas and findings, which provide an appealing practical alternative to use of hypothesis tests. For simplicity, the article focuses on medical treatment with evidence from classical randomized clinical trials. The ideas apply generally, encompassing use of observational data and treatment choice in nonmedical contexts.     

古籍整理中的辨伪例说

辨伪是古籍整理的重要工作。本文在总结历代学人关于辨伪理论及方法的基础上,以古籍整理实践中的九个典型实例,具体说明辨伪的方法：考证作者的生平事迹,审核作品的思想内容,检验作品的语言风格,查阅历代的相关书目,寻找各种有用的旁证等,以期尽可能恢复古籍原貌。     

苏雪林文学批评之比较方法的运用

在苏雪林的文学批评中，比较手法的运用是极为显著且常见的。中国古典文学深厚的积淀，西方文学文化的深刻熏陶，使其比较之法不仅仅涉及到同时期、同流派作家之间的平行比较，更有以古典文学为借鉴的古今比较，及以西方文学为参照的中西比较。这种多层次、多方面的比较，使中国现代文学在苏雪林的评论中处于一个广阔而又立体的环境中，这一方面突显了苏雪林的敏锐观察力，同时也折射出了中国现代文学在中西纵横交错中的独特魅力。