渠道权力结构对供应链协同效应影响研究

借鉴营销中的渠道权力概念,通过对供应链中制造商和零售商的相互权力进行AHP评价,形成制造商和零售商渠道权力结构组合,并对应于供应链伙伴关系的4种典型组合;从战略层、职能层和作业层3个维度,利用三角模糊数评价方法重建供应链协同效应评价体系;以实证分析的方法验证基于渠道权力而形成的供应链伙伴关系的4种典型组合与供应链协同效应的关系.实证结果表明,在供应链协同效应方面双核心型供应链优于制造商主导型供应链,制造商主导型供应链优于零售商主导型供应链,零售商主导型供应链优于低度均衡型供应链,并在此基础上分析不同组合的供应链协同效应差别的原因与提高的途径.     

模糊AR模型的两步机会规划多期决策

利用系数为对称三角形模糊数的模糊AR模型预测投资收益,以模糊收益中值的协方差衡量投资风险,在引入流动性约束的条件下,拓展MARKOWITZ的单期均值-方差模型为多期模糊投资规划,每期期末利用改进的清晰化公式将预测的模糊收益转化为清晰的投资收益,构造出一个两步机会规划寻求投资收益和投资风险的Pareto解。采用含遗传交叉变异因子的粒子群算法求解。对上证50指数中的32只股票进行实证分析,并利用离散多期均值-方差模型检验所提出模型的有效性。检验结果表明:两步机会规划模型的最优投资组合的投资收益落在模糊收益值的允许区间之内,且其预测误差较小;在相同投资收益约束条件下,两步机会规划模型可以比多期MV模型承担更低的投资风险。     

基于三角直觉模糊数Choquet积分算子的多属性决策方法

定义了三角直觉模糊数的Hamming距离,给出了属性独立情形下的三角直觉模糊数算术集成算子,并运用模糊测度和Choquet积分,定义了三角直觉模糊Choquet积分算子,并分析其有关性质。针对方案评价信息为三角直觉模糊数的关联多属性决策问题,利用三角直觉模糊Choquet积分算子集成得到方案的综合属性值,建立多目标优化模型并转化为线性目标规划求解,客观地确定了属性集的模糊测度,进而提出了相应的决策方法。实例分析表明了方法的有效性和合理性。     

区间值模糊线性规划问题及其求解方法

提出了一类区间值模糊线性规划问题,讨论了区间值模糊数的排序方法,在不同的排序准则下获得了相应的辅助模型,给出了求解问题的算法.     

基于前景理论的多阶段随机多准则决策方法

研究一种基于动态参考点的多阶段随机多准则决策方法。考虑多阶段决策过程中决策者的风险偏好,建立了基于前景理论的多阶段随机多准则决策分析框架,提出了一种基于阶段发展特征的动态参考点设置方法;构建准则权重的目标规划模型,结合阶段参考点动态变化的特征测算各阶段备选方案的综合前景值;设计方案综合前景值的范围估算模型,以反映决策风险对评价结果的影响;案例研究验证了上述方法的可行性和实际效果。     

A COMPARISON OF THE IMPRECISE BETA CLASS, THE RANDOMIZED PLAY-THE-WINNER RULE AND THE TRIANGULAR TEST FOR CLINICAL TRIALS WITH BINARY RESPONSES

This paper develops clinical trial designs that compare two treatments with a binary outcome. The imprecise beta class (IBC), a class of beta probability distributions, is used in a robust Bayesian framework to calculate posterior upper and lower expectations for treatment success rates using accumulating data. The posterior expectation for the difference in success rates can be used to decide when there is sufficient evidence for randomized treatment allocation to cease. This design is formally related to the randomized play‐the‐winner (RPW) design, an adaptive allocation scheme where randomization probabilities are updated sequentially to favour the treatment with the higher observed success rate. A connection is also made between the IBC and the sequential clinical trial design based on the triangular test. Theoretical and simulation results are presented to show that the expected sample sizes on the truly inferior arm are lower using the IBC compared with either the triangular test or the RPW design, and that the IBC performs well against established criteria involving error rates and the expected number of treatment failures.     

基于沟通过程模式的项目利益相关者沟通效能评价研究

项目利益相关者沟通效能是决定项目成败的关键因素。为了科学评价项目利益相关者沟通效能,文章在梳理沟通过程经典模式的基础上,结合项目沟通的特征,构建项目沟通过程模式,并据此设计项目利益相关者沟通效能评价指标体系,从利益相关者识别、沟通规划、信息传递、沟通成果4个维度测评项目沟通的过程性效能和结果性效能。最后,采用三角模糊数层次分析法确定各个评价指标的权重,采用物元分析法对待评项目沟通效能进行等级评价,并通过算例验证了评价模型的有效性。     

论高等教育系统中的权力与责任

任何国家或政府的权力都是民众的权力(权利)让渡和公众的认可,且权力处于不断的动态变化中.市场经济体制的确立、政府政治体制的改革以及高等教育的大众化带来了高等教育的深刻变革,大学由原有政府单一权力的作用渐变为政府、市场及学术权威3种权力的共同作用,而且这3种力量不是简单之和,而是有机合力.其中任何一种力量对大学的极端控制都是危险的.     

The double triangular test in practice

The double triangular test was introduced twenty years ago, and the purpose of this paper is to review applications that have been made since then. In fact, take‐up of the method was rather slow until the late 1990s, but in recent years several clinical trial reports have been published describing its use in a wide range of therapeutic areas. The core of this paper is a detailed account of five trials that have been published since 2000 in which the method was applied to studies of pancreatic cancer, breast cancer, myocardial infarction, epilepsy and bedsores. Before those accounts are given, the method is described and the history behind its evolution is presented. The future potential of the method for sequential case–control and equivalence trials is also discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.