企业信息化指数测算方法研究

应用模糊集合论和主成分分析的方法对企业信息化进行了综合评判,引进了一种新的隶属函数对数据进行了无量纲化处理并确定了各指标权重,建立了山东省企业信息化指数模型。利用此方法对 5家企业信息化进行综合评价,得到了满意的结果。     

市场预测支持系统的预测模型研究

本文运用模糊数学和统计相关的理论,预测支持系统确定预测量的相关因子,分析了建造预测模型的过程,给出了待预测量的预测模型,并验证之。     

Hybrid Processing of Stochastic and Subjective Uncertainty Data

Uncertainty analyses typically recognize separate stochastic and subjective sources of uncertainty, but do not systematically combine the two, although a large amount of data used in analyses is partly stochastic and partly subjective. We have developed methodology for mathematically combining stochastic and subjective sources of data uncertainty, based on new "hybrid number" approaches. The methodology can be utilized in conjunction with various traditional techniques, such as PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) and risk analysis decision support. Hybrid numbers have been previously examined as a potential method to represent combinations of stochastic and subjective information, but mathematical processing has been impeded by the requirements inherent in the structure of the numbers, e.g., there was no known way to multiply hybrids. In this paper, we will demonstrate methods for calculating with hybrid numbers that avoid the difficulties. By formulating a hybrid number as a probability distribution that is only fuzzily known, or alternatively as a random distribution of fuzzy numbers, methods are demonstrated for the full suite of arithmetic operations, permitting complex mathematical calculations. It will be shown how information about relative subjectivity (the ratio of subjective to stochastic knowledge about a particular datum) can be incorporated. Techniques are also developed for conveying uncertainty information visually, so that the stochastic and subjective components of the uncertainty, as well as the ratio of knowledge about the two, are readily apparent. The techniques demonstrated have the capability to process uncertainty information for independent, uncorrelated data, and for some types of dependent and correlated data. Example applications are suggested, illustrative problems are shown, and graphical results are given.     

基于模糊数学的房地产评估实务

为了进一步提高房地产评估精度,开拓房地产评估方法,文章运用模糊数学的理论,采用区别于传统的市场比较法的方法即模糊综合评估法来评估房地产的价格。在已知的模糊评估模型基础之上,结合上海海关大楼评估项目,通过专家群体对影响房地产价格的各主要因素指标进行模糊选择并打分,计算出待估对象及可比案例的最终分值,并按已知可比案例的交易价格及其对应分值采用直线内插法得出待估对象的价格。     

DEA评价模型应用的几点探讨

为更好地应用ＤＥＡ评价模型，本文讨论了ＤＥＡ模型中定性指标的模糊处理及权重分布的随机处理，运用主成分分析法对ＤＥＡ模型指标体系进行处理，并对ＤＥＡ评价结果进行了排队分析．     

On rates of convergence to infinitely divisible laws for dependent random variables

Large O and small o approximations of the expected value of a class of functions (modified K-functional and Lipschitz class) of the normalized partial sums of dependent random variables by the expectation of the corresponding functions of infinitely divisible random variables have been established. As a special case, we have obtained rates of convergence to the Stable Limit Laws and to the Weak Laws of Large Numbers. The technique used is the conditional version of the operator method of Trotter and the Taylor expansion.     

Decision Making Under Risk: A Comparison of Bayesian and Fuzzy Set Methods

A classical decision problem is considered where a decision maker is to choose one of a number of actions each offering different consequences. The outcome from a choice of action is uncertain because it depends on the existing state of Nature. Also, the outcome, once an action and state of Nature are specified, may be a vector or a random vector. The decision maker employs both Bayesian methods and fuzzy set techniques to handle the uncertainties. The decision maker is also allowed to use multiple, possibly conflicting, goals in order to determine his best strategy. The Bayesian method produces a set of undominated strategies to choose from, whereas the fuzzy set technique usually produces a unique optimal strategy.     

史料特征及其模糊性

史料具有过去性、主观性、有限性、残缺性等特征,在其中同时亦存在模糊性.模糊性是指事物性态和类属的不确定性,即是指事物在性态和类属方面的"亦此亦彼"性,亦即中介过渡性.用模糊学理论和方法分析史料中介的特征及其模糊性,对进一步研究历史思维和历史认识的模糊性、历史和历史人物研究与评价中的模糊性等问题很有帮助.     

A correlation-theoretical interpretation of schur analysis

This paper is heavily leaned on the author's recent investigations concerning SCHUR analysis of non-negative Hermitian block matrices. The parameters of the matrix balls and the triangular choice scheme which describe a non-negative Hermitian block matrix will be interpreted in the framework of correlation theory     

The True Cost-of-Living Index With Changing Preferences

This article investigates the theoretical and empirical properties of a true cost-of-living index under conditions of changing preferences. A family of true indexes is defined based on the notion of the current utility function. A particular index, based on the previous period's utility level, is then defined. Given this definition, a true cost-of-living index is computed based on a quadratic expenditure system estimated with quarterly data from 1960–1981. For empirical purposes, changes in preferences are represented by the linear habit formation hypothesis. This index is then compared with Paasche and Laspeyres indexes. The true cost-of-living index grows somewhat faster than either the Paasche or Laspeyres index. It also displays considerably more variability.