论当代大学生违法犯罪问题与德育工作方式的有效选择

当代大学生违法犯罪现象日渐突起,其根源在于社会经济、思想文化等方面。真正发挥高校德育的功能,选择有效的德育工作方式,对预防和减少当代大学生违法犯罪具有重要作用。     

Semiparametric estimator for a secondary analysis with correlated outcomes

ABSTRACT

Researchers are often required to reuse data that have been collected and analyzed for other purposes. Issues may arise if the outcome of this secondary study is related to the outcome of the first study and traditional methods may fail to deliver a consistent estimate. Here we propose a semiparametric approach that takes this correlation into account and produces asymptotically consistent and normally distributed estimates. We discuss its performance through simulations and apply the proposed method to a real dataset.     

凝析气井产能和储量计算新方法

凝析气藏存在复杂的相变与相态分布，当地层压力下降到露点压力以下时，凝析油会在地层和井筒中分别析出，导致井口产气量、产油量与井底产气量、产油量之间存在质量转换，但仍遵循质量守恒定律。因此利用质量守恒建立考虑油、气两相的渗流微分方程，通过引入两相拟压力函数，推导凝析气井不稳定产能方程。在此基础上，结合物质平衡方程，利用生产动态数据拟合整个历史生产过程，不但可以获得气井目前的产能，还可以获得地层压力及各种地层参数。实例分析表明，计算结果准确可靠，有利于在凝析气井中推广使用。     

采用一元辅助信息的多元二相抽样的比估计

一元抽样调查的理论已经发展相对成熟．但实际问题中往往涉及多个指标,一元理论不能满足需要．本文研究了多元二相抽样,并且在多元二相抽样中添加了一元辅助信息。定义了采用一元辅助信息的多元比估计,得到了采用一元辅助信息的多元二相抽样的比估汁量及其性质．并且证明了在满足一定条件时．采用一元辅助信息的多元二相抽样的比估计量优于多元简单随机抽样的简单估计量．     

气液两相内混式油喷嘴混合室内压力特性的实验研究

以压缩空气和变压器油为工质，对气液两相内混式油喷嘴混合室内压力特性进行了实验研究．研究结果表明，对于结构已确定的油喷嘴，影响混合室内压力的运行因素主要是油压（p1)，气压（p2)及两者差值（p1-p2)．实验测得了相同雾化气压下不同油压时混合室内压力的变化值，并利用数理统计的方法，整理出了这种油喷嘴混合室内压力随油压变化的关系式．从统计关系式及实验数据相关线图的比较可以看出，两者的变化关系是非线性的．实验还测得了在相同油压条件下不同雾化气压时，混合室内压力随气压的变化值，整理出了混合室内压力随气压变化的关系式．从统计规律及实验数据相关线图分析比较看出，两者的关系近似为线性关系。     

窄通道内去离子水的沸腾换热特性实验研究

为了研究矩形窄通道内流动沸腾表面换热系数的影响因素,建立了竖直矩形窄通道流动沸腾传热实验装置,研 究了尺寸为720 mm x250 mm x3.5 mm窄通道内离子水的流动沸腾换热特性。采用单侧壁面加热,改变加热热流密度; 调节恒温水箱温度,改变工质入口温度;以蠕动泵为动力,改变泵的转速,改变工质流量。实验结果表明：入口温度对流 动沸腾表面换热系数基本无影响;流体的紊流度随着质量流量的增加而增加,从而加强了对流换热的强度;在对流沸腾 换热阶段,核态沸腾受抑制,表面换热系数随着加热功率的增大反而降低;在完全对流换热阶段,表面换热系数随着加热 功率的增大基本不变。该研究为更好地设计板式换热器提供了依据。     

Chain ratio and regression type estimators for median estimation in survey sampling

In this paper, we consider chain ratio and regression type estimators for estimating median in survey sampling. We find expressions for the variance of the chain-ratio and chain-regression type estimators considered in the present investigation. The optimum values of the first phase and second phase sample sizes are also obtained for the fixed cost of survey. The relative efficiency of chain-ratio and chain-regression type estimators have been studied in comparison to ratio and regression type estimators of median proposed by Singh, Joarder and Tracy (2001).     

Estimates based on preliminary data from a specific subsample and from respondents not included in the subsample

Various approaches to obtaining estimates based on preliminary data are outlined. A case is then considered which frequently arises when selecting a subsample of units, the information for which is collected within a deadline that allows preliminary estimates to be produced. At the moment when these estimates have to be produced it often occurs that, although the collection of data on subsample units is still not complete, information is available on a set of units which does not belong to the sample selected for the production of the preliminary estimates. An estimation method is proposed which allows all the data available on a given date to be used to the full-and the expression of the expectation and variance are derived. The proposal is based on two-phase sampling theory and on the hypothesis that the response mechanism is the result of random processes whose parameters can be suitably estimated. An empirical analysis of the performance of the estimator on the Italian Survey on building permits concludes the work. The Sects. 1,2,3,4 and the technical appendixes have been developed by Giorgio Alleva and Piero Demetrio Falorsi; Sect. 5 has been done by Fabio Bacchini and Roberto Iannaccone. Piero Demetrio Falorsi is chief statisticians at Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT); Giorgio Alleva is Professor of Statistics at University “La Sapienza” of Rome, Fabio Bacchini and Roberto Iannaccone are researchers at ISTAT.     

Two-phase nonlinear regression with smooth transition

A method of estimating parameters of twophase nonlinear regression with smooth transition between phases is described. It consists of two stages, both utilizing the least square fit. In the first one, each phase is fitted separately and, simultaneously, a transition point is determined. In the second stage, the two phases are joined smoothly by a proper transition function, which depends on the transition point chosen by the grid search. The practical aspects of the method proposed are demonstrated on the data concerning the soil bulk density in dependence on the soil water content.     

中国地方公共品供给效率地区差异测度

采用两阶段DEA方法对我国地方公共品供给效率地区差异进行了测度.实证结果显示:我国地方公共品供给效率存在着较大的地区差异,呈现东高西低的态势.第二阶段在控制了外生变量的影响后发现,GDP水平高的地区并不意味着公共品供给效率就高;人口密度越大、工业集聚程度越高的地区,因成本产出因素折射出地方公共品供给效率越高;财政分权程度高的地区,地方公共品的供给效率相应较高,这在一定程度上表明二者的双向因果关系还取决于经济发展的阶段.