An empirical likelihood goodness-of-fit test for time series

Summary. Standard goodness-of-fit tests for a parametric regression model against a series of nonparametric alternatives are based on residuals arising from a fitted model. When a parametric regression model is compared with a nonparametric model, goodness-of-fit testing can be naturally approached by evaluating the likelihood of the parametric model within a nonparametric framework. We employ the empirical likelihood for an α -mixing process to formulate a test statistic that measures the goodness of fit of a parametric regression model. The technique is based on a comparison with kernel smoothing estimators. The empirical likelihood formulation of the test has two attractive features. One is its automatic consideration of the variation that is associated with the nonparametric fit due to empirical likelihood's ability to Studentize internally. The other is that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is free of unknown parameters, avoiding plug-in estimation. We apply the test to a discretized diffusion model which has recently been considered in financial market analysis.     

网络发展与思想政治工作

本文阐述了网络发展给思想政治工作带来的机遇和挑战 ,并提出了相应对策和思考     

20世纪中国的三场伟大革命与中国现代化

辛亥革命、新民主主义革命和新和平革命是20世纪中国的三场伟大革命。三场革命在不同程度上推动了中国现代化的进程:辛亥革命开启了现代化潮流的历史闸门,新民主主义革命奠定了现代化的基本前提,新和平革命实现了现代化进程中质的飞跃。     

利用光敏核不育性进行水稻轮回选择的程序探讨

本文对利用光敏核不育性进行水稻轮回选择进行了探讨。提出基本轮回选择方案和综合轮回选择方案。基本轮回选择方案是以一个光敏核不育材料为母本与多个亲本组配构成轮回选择的综合群体,而其后按常规轮回选择法进行育种的方案。综合轮回选择方案是以两个或两个以上的光敏核不育材料作为母体与多个亲本组配,在 F_2代群体中不同质源的优良植株相互交配构成综合群体,其后按基本方案进行的轮回选择。     

Progress and cumulation in the human sciences after the fall

What do we mean by progress and cumulation in the social and human sciences? Recent thinking in the philosophy and history of science has led to an abandonment of some versions of logical positivism and of verificationism that had a strong deductive and theory testing orientation. What is to replace them is less clear. This paper argues that progress and cumulation can be seen as a process of evaluation and retention within an epistemic community. Scholarly disciplines differ in their social structure and in their epistemic and normative commitments. Since sociology is a fragmented discipline, progress and cumulation differ within its multiple subdisciplines, which to varying extents represent epistemic communities. Brief sketches of progress (advance) and cumulation in several subdisciplines are offered.     

数字化媒体教学手段的发展与合理使用

合理运用多媒体教学手段,要选择恰当的多媒体教学方式,处理好与板书、多媒体课件与课程的关系,选择合理的多媒体教学时机,并要合理控制课堂容量。     

First Nations and community economic development: a case study

A training project in a northern Canadian community providedan opportunity to examine participatory planning approachesand the meaning of work in First Nations communities. Focusgroups conducted three years after the unsuccessful interventionof a community economic development (CED) project suggest thatcomplex factors such as lack of support from community leadersand rate of pay for workers determine whether CED is alwaysappropriate in northern, First Nations contexts.     

宗教社会学范式及理论的新进展

20世纪90年代以后,宗教社会学领域出现了新的理论范式。新范式是理解美国宗教的框架,旧范式则来源于欧洲的宗教传统。新范式的内容包括理性选择理论、似真性理论和仪式理论。目前,新范式开始运用于中国、印度等国家的宗教研究,似乎要成为普世性的理论模式。     

国际植物新品种保护的发展趋势

目前,国际上对于植物新品种的保护主要采取专利保护和植物新品种保护的两种模式,美国率先给予植物新品种以专利保护,其对于国际植物新品种保护双重格局的形成具有举足轻重的作用。文章通过分析美国植物新品种保护制度对国际植物新品种保护制度的影响,论述了国际植物新品种保护的发展趋势以及我国作为发展中国家所面临的选择。     

平教会定县实验中的农村卫生工作之考察

中华平民教育促进会定县实验区在二十世纪三十年代创立了一套由村保健员、乡保健所、县保健院组成的三级卫生保健网,并在学校卫生、妇婴保健、传染病预防和疾病治疗等方面做出了显著的成绩,在当时产生了广泛的影响,对我们今天来说仍值得借鉴。