的士司机撞击抢劫犯司法适用之我见

本文对的士司机撞击抢劫犯司法适用的相关问题加以论述。     

A robustness framework for monitoring real options under uncertainty

This paper presents a problem structuring methodology to assess real option decisions in the face of unpredictability. Based on principles of robustness analysis and scenario planning, we demonstrate how decision-aiding can facilitate participation in projects setting and achieve effective decision making through the use of real options reasoning. We argue that robustness heuristics developed in earlier studies can be practical proxies for real options performance, hence indicators of efficient flexible planning. The developed framework also highlights how to integrate real options solutions in firms’ strategic plans and operating actions. The use of the methodology in a location decision application is provided for illustration.     

An alternative approach to variable selection for prediction

A procedure for selecting a subset of predictor variables in regression analysis is suggested. The procedure is so designed that it leads to the selection of a subset of variables having an adequate degree of informativeness with a directly specified confidence coefficient. Some examples are considered to illustrate the application of the procedure.     

A Conditional Approach for Regression Analysis of Longitudinal Data with Informative Observation Time and Non-negligible Observation Duration

Recently, there has been a great interest in the analysis of longitudinal data in which the observation process is related to the longitudinal process. In literature, the observation process was commonly regarded as a recurrent event process. Sometimes some observation duration may occur and this process is referred to as a recurrent episode process. The medical cost related to hospitalization is an example. We propose a conditional modeling approach that takes into account both informative observation process and observation duration. We conducted simulation studies to assess the performance of the method and applied it to a dataset of medical costs.     

The Trouble With Triumph: Discourses of Governmentality in Mainstream Media Representations of Urban Youth

The Assets Coming Together for Youth project conducted a critical discourse analysis of mainstream media depictions of Jane-Finch to better understand the discursive strategies used to constitute urban youth. Although a substantive body of literature investigates the negative discourses, little analysis interrogates the nominally positive discourses deployed by mainstream media. The findings suggest that the sociopolitical significance of these nominally positive discourses may go uncontested and pose a challenge to communities advocating for policies to support urban youth development. These discourses are examined using governmentality theory to reveal how racialized narratives of individual triumph re/produce troubled communities.     

元代江西泰和词人曾允元流传辨

元代江西泰和词人曾允元一直是文学研究史上缺乏关注的对象，千百年来，除了史籍偶尔见栽一下，基本无人问津，以至于事迹湮灭，生平难考，有关“曾允元”的名字和个别词作在历史的流传变迁中较为不一，有必要对其做一些梳理和辨析，以补文人生平研究之空白。文章认为，曾允元与曾舜卿并非一人，而怀可才是曾允元之字，新元之际曾以儒学教授为职。     

Catastrophe Risk Models for Evaluating Disaster Risk Reduction Investments in Developing Countries

Major natural disasters in recent years have had high human and economic costs, and triggered record high postdisaster relief from governments and international donors. Given the current economic situation worldwide, selecting the most effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures is critical. This is especially the case for low‐ and middle‐income countries, which have suffered disproportionally more economic and human losses from disasters. This article discusses a methodology that makes use of advanced probabilistic catastrophe models to estimate benefits of DRR measures. We apply such newly developed models to generate estimates for hurricane risk on residential structures on the island of St. Lucia, and earthquake risk on residential structures in Istanbul, Turkey, as two illustrative case studies. The costs and economic benefits for selected risk reduction measures are estimated taking account of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We conclude by emphasizing the advantages and challenges of catastrophe model‐based cost‐benefit analyses for DRR in developing countries.     

Estimation and Welfare Analysis With Large Demand Systems

We develop an approach for estimating individual or household level preferences for a large set of quality-differentiated goods and for constructing Hicksian welfare measures within the demand system framework. Our approach uses a maximum simulated likelihood procedure to recover estimates of the structural parameters and a multistage, Monte Carlo Markov chain algorithm for constructing Hicksian consumer surplus estimates. We illustrate our approach with a recreation dataset consisting of day trips to 62 Mid-Atlantic beaches.     

无套利分析在非完美条件下远期合约定价中的运用

无套利分析方法是现代金融理论的基石之一,已成为金融衍生品定价的一种重要方法,传统的金融工程教科书很少涉及非完美条件下远期合约的定价问题。在介绍无套利分析方法的基础上,通过现金流复制技术,研究了三种非完美条件下远期合约的定价问题。     

略论元诗“宗唐得古”说的理论可能——以语义学分析为线索

“宗唐得古”是元诗的基本特征之一,但这种后来的归纳与认定却被过度引申.客观史料和语义学的分析证明:元诗“宗唐得古”说的理论引申必须得到限制,它只能在“陈述”与“总结”的基础上被理解;元诗的理论口号与实践间存在巨大差异,由口号上的“宗唐”得出元诗“反宋”的引申并不能成立;元代诗风的建立在很大程度上也是一个官方“雅正”诗风建立的过程,元人自身的陈述既剖明又遮蔽了历史.