对我国近五年田径成绩分析及“九运会”田径水平预测

通过对１９９６年至２００１年度我国男、女子田径前三名最好成绩的分析,揭示了近五年我国田径运动水平的变化趋势及原因,结合实际,初步预测了“九运会”田径项目的水平。     

纪事本末谱新篇：读《山西历代纪事本末》

传统的纪事本末体例有叙事完整明快的优势。《山西历代纪事本末》一书,突破近现代以来章节体风行的局面,依据山西区域特点,吸收各体所长,加以协调、变通、改进,使古老的本末体焕发青春,成为一部相当成功的新型地方通史,对中国史学发展是一大贡献。如能增加大事年表及相应的地图,则会更为完善。     

Mixture modelling of recurrent event times with long-term survivors: Analysis of Hutterite birth intervals

We propose a mixture model that combines a discrete-time survival model for analyzing the correlated times between recurrent events, e.g. births, with a logistic regression model for the probability of never experiencing the event of interest, i.e., being a long-term survivor. The proposed survival model incorporates both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the probability of experiencing the event of interest. We use Gibbs sampling for the fitting of such mixture models, which leads to a computationally intensive solution to the problem of fitting survival models for multiple event time data with long-term survivors. We illustrate our Bayesian approach through an analysis of Hutterite birth histories.     

A class of accelerated means regression models for recurrent event data

In this article, we propose a general class of accelerated means regression models for recurrent event data. The class includes the proportional means model, the accelerated failure time model and the accelerated rates model as special cases. The new model offers great flexibility in formulating the effects of covariates on the mean functions of counting processes while leaving the stochastic structure completely unspecified. For the inference on the model parameters, estimating equation approaches are developed and both large and final sample properties of the proposed estimators are established. In addition, some graphical and numerical procedures are presented for model checking. An illustration with multiple-infection data from a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease is also provided.     

Analysis of exacerbation rates in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: example from the TRISTAN study

Recurrent events in clinical trials have typically been analysed using either a multiple time-to-event method or a direct approach based on the distribution of the number of events. An area of application for these methods is exacerbation data from respiratory clinical trials. The different approaches to the analysis and the issues involved are illustrated for a large trial (n = 1465) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). For exacerbation rates, clinical interest centres on a direct comparison of rates for each treatment which favours the distribution-based analysis, rather than a time-to-event approach. Poisson regression has often been employed and has recently been recommended as the appropriate method of analysis for COPD exacerbations but the key assumptions often appear unreasonable for this analysis. By contrast use of a negative binomial model which corresponds to assuming a separate Poisson parameter for each subject offers a more appealing approach. Non-parametric methods avoid some of the assumptions required by these models, but do not provide appropriate estimates of treatment effects because of the discrete and bounded nature of the data.     

公共事件报道中的报纸角色扮演及公信力探析——以《南方都市报》“番禺垃圾焚烧厂风波”报道为例

在公共事件中网络媒体的公共角色日益显现,其社会影响力对传统媒体形成挑战,报纸等传统媒体在公共事件中如何扮演好公共角色以提高其公信力?传统媒体通过在公共事件报道中的角色扮演,公共议题的建构、公众参与平台搭建、促成社会共识等方面于提升了媒体影响力和公信力。     

Assessing safety at the end of clinical trials using system organ classes: A case and comparative study

Recent approaches to the statistical analysis of adverse event (AE) data in clinical trials have proposed the use of groupings of related AEs, such as by system organ class (SOC). These methods have opened up the possibility of scanning large numbers of AEs while controlling for multiple comparisons, making the comparative performance of the different methods in terms of AE detection and error rates of interest to investigators. We apply two Bayesian models and two procedures for controlling the false discovery rate (FDR), which use groupings of AEs, to real clinical trial safety data. We find that while the Bayesian models are appropriate for the full data set, the error controlling methods only give similar results to the Bayesian methods when low incidence AEs are removed. A simulation study is used to compare the relative performances of the methods. We investigate the differences between the methods over full trial data sets, and over data sets with low incidence AEs and SOCs removed. We find that while the removal of low incidence AEs increases the power of the error controlling procedures, the estimated power of the Bayesian methods remains relatively constant over all data sizes. Automatic removal of low-incidence AEs however does have an effect on the error rates of all the methods, and a clinically guided approach to their removal is needed. Overall we found that the Bayesian approaches are particularly useful for scanning the large amounts of AE data gathered.     

Reminiscing Style During Conversations About Emotion‐laden Events and Effects of Attachment Security Among Italian Mother–Child Dyads

Previous research has established that mothers' and children's elaborative/evaluative styles during conversations about emotion‐laden events are associated with a range of social‐cognitive accomplishments, and this has prompted researchers to identify factors that predict stylistic differences in conversation styles. The study explored whether patterns and variations in reminiscing styles reported in other cultures would be observed in an Italian sample (N = 40 dyads). Attachment security, assessed using the Adult Attachment Interview for mothers and the Q‐Sort for children, were tested as possible sources of variation in conversation style. The two reminiscing styles identified through a clustering procedure were consistent with those displayed by dyads from other cultural groups; moreover, these were significantly related to both mothers' and children's attachment security. These results extend knowledge on reminiscing conversations during early childhood to a different cultural context and contribute to an understanding of how individual differences in attachment affect partners' participation in such conversations.     

情绪对创造力影响的研究综述

系统回顾了国内外有关情绪影响创造力的文献,对当前的主要研究成果进行梳理,总结提炼出情绪具有影响个体工作记忆、信息加工方式和工作投入的功能,从而带来了情绪影响创造力的认知路径与动机路径;并进一步指出未来研究有必要结合情绪内在特征深入挖掘情绪影响创造力的动机路径,以及结合情绪事件理论界定工作场所中情绪前因变量。