Large deviations of multiclass M/G/1 queues

Consider a multiclass M/G/1 queue where queued customers are served in their order of arrival at a rate which depends on the customer class. We model this system using a chain with states represented by a tree. Since the service time distribution depends on the customer class, the stationary distribution is not of product form so there is no simple expression for the stationary distribution. Nevertheless, we can find a harmonic function on this chain which provides information about the asymptotics of this stationary distribution. The associated h‐transformation produces a change of measure that increases the arrival rate of customers and decreases the departure rate thus making large deviations common. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 327–346; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

从资金运动的角度编制会计分录

经济活动中发生的经济业务,要通过编制会计分录后,才可以在账薄中进行登记,能否正确编制会计分录是整个会计工作的首要环节。传统会计分录编制方法对初学者来说相当复杂、抽象,不易掌握;从资金运动的角度编制会计分录,可使复杂问题简单化,使抽象问题具体化。     

Speed up or slow down? Social theory in the information age

Extreme processes of social and cultural acceleration lie at the heart of the information age but social theory, for the most part, continues to be a slow and patient affair. In view of this, this paper asks how such theory is to respond to the speed-up of social life and culture. Should it attempt to keep pace with a world that is changing faster than ever? Or is the strength of theory that it is a slow, detached and reflective form that lies outside the accelerated logic of contemporary capitalist culture? In an attempt to address such questions, this paper considers two main alternatives: first, that theory should follow the speed-up of the world by technologizing itself (as argued by Scott Lash and Peter Lunenfeld), and second, and seemingly contrary to this, that in times of cultural speed-up theory should either call for social and cultural slow-down (Marshall McLuhan, Paul Virilio), slow down itself (Jean Baudrillard), or perhaps both. In considering these alternatives, media theory (associated with the above figures) is used as a resource for questioning the focus and form of social theory today.     

House demolition and mental health: Victims and witnesses

The research examines the immediate effects of losing one’s home and witnessing the demolition of others houses on the mental health of Palestinian adults and children. The loss group consisted of 47 adults whose homes were demolished, the witness group of 24 adults who witnessed the house demolition, and the control group of 33 adults. The groups were compared for their anxiety, depression, and paranoiac symptoms. In addition, 38 children in the loss group, 36 children in the witness group, and 50 children in the control group were compared for their psychological symptoms. The results showed that adults who were exposed to house demolition showed a higher level of anxiety, depression, and paranoiac symptoms than the witness and control groups. The children in the loss group showed a higher level of psychological symptoms than the children in the witness and control groups. The witness group differed from the control group in having more depression among women and from anxiety, depression, and paranoiac symptoms than men in the loss and witness groups but not in the control group.     

群体性事件政治成因分析

在现有的群体性事件理论研究成果中,对其政治成因所进行的分析大都是罗列式的,没有进行细致而深刻的探究。文章通过对群体性事件政治成因———内因和外因的分析,提出了一些理性思考。     

灾变性事件引起的消费品产业链价格波及效应研究

为了研究地震等灾变性事件对于消费品产业链内价格传递和市场的影响,本文利用从2008年2月至2009年3月四川省江油市畜产业链进行实证研究,使用向量纠错模型(VECM)和历史分解图(HDG)分析了价格调整的动态效果和沿产业链的因果关系。结果表明,价格的调整关于速度和大小都是不对称的,外生震荡对于该产业链的不同层面产生不同影响,导致价格差益的扩大和价格不完全传递。该方法能够有效地分析灾变事件条件下消费品产业链内价格波及效应问题。     

论社会转型期民族群体性事件的成因及其治理

少数民族群体性事件与中国其他群体性事件都发生在社会转型的场景之下,却又往往有其自身的特征和因果机制。有必要对社会转型期民族群体性事件提出一个初步的理论分析框架,探讨民族群体性事件的界定、特征、发生机制和治理对策。     

幼儿园2—6岁儿童受挫缘由探析

对采用观察法获取的北京市122个2—6岁儿童在幼儿园受挫缘由进行分析,结果发现：与教师的矛盾和与同伴的关系问题是引发2—6岁儿童受挫的主要缘由;引发2—6岁儿童受挫的缘由在年龄班上存在显著差异,在性别和幼儿园不同活动上存在极其显著的差异。建议建立良好的师幼关系和同伴关系。根据各年龄班儿童发展的特点和需要强调不同的教育侧重点,对男女幼儿进行双性化教育。合理安排幼儿园的一日活动,促进幼儿园和家庭在挫折教育的观念和方法上的协调一致。     

非常规突发事件的性质和特征探析

由于人类的有限理性、环境的动荡性以及科学技术的迅猛发展所注入的更多不确定性因素,现代动荡的社会环境中所爆发的各种突发公共事件远远超出了人类的预见能力和应对能力,笔者研究和分析了这类非常规突发事件的概念及其在时间、信息、状态、方案、程序和后果方面所具有的本真特征和由于环境多变性、过程复杂性、资源稀缺性、组织刚性、决策步骤非程序化、事件的紧迫性、对策方案生成条件所产生的一系列约束特征,指出惟有根据具体的危机情景,以变应变,临机应景地生成恰当的权变策略方为有效。     

网络社区公共危机事件信息传播模式实证分析

论文对2007—2010年间的网络舆情热点事件进行实证研究,通过对热点事件的特征分析,发现网络舆情热点事件在网民数量持续攀升、权利意识不断提高、热点话题层出不穷的背景下,围绕热点事件的发帖数量有较大增长,呈波浪状不断上扬的发展态势;跨区域特征十分明显,城市越发达越受网络舆论关注,并向级别更低县级转移的趋势;互联网成为网络舆情独立源头,微博客等新兴网络平台发展迅猛,互联网和传统媒体相互推动放大舆论。在传播过程中,互联网从舆情事件的发端,到推波助澜,再到最后舆论主题的形成,都发挥着非常重要的作用。